环境库兹涅茨曲线与门槛协整模型——基于CO2排放量的国际数据验证

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20150804.009

资源与产业 ›› 2015, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (5): 96-102.DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20150804.009

环境库兹涅茨曲线与门槛协整模型——基于CO2排放量的国际数据验证

李维*，罗天

（中共江西省委党校江西经济社会发展研究所，江西南昌 330003）

收稿日期:2015-03-16 修回日期:2015-04-20 出版日期:2015-10-20 发布日期:2015-10-20
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金项目（13CJY008，12BJY056）；江西省社科规划青年项目（13JY56）

ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE AND THRESHOLD COINTEGRATION MODEL VERIFIED BY GLOBALCARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION DATA

LI Wei*， LUO Tian

(Jiangxi Institute of Economical and Social Development, Jiangxi Party School ofCCP, Nanchang 330003, China)

Received:2015-03-16 Revised:2015-04-20 Online:2015-10-20 Published:2015-10-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于1960—2009年110个国家的面板数据，采用门槛协整模型，验证环境库兹涅茨假设是否成立。研究结果发现：使用门槛协整模型方法，估计出两个门槛值20248美元和311美元，据此将所有成员国分为低中高三者，各组人均GDP各为125美元、4537美元和26452美元。使用门槛协整模型，对各收入组进行估计，发现低中高收入组的门槛误差修正系数显著，并且各为0.805、-0.234和1.802，因此高收入组和低收入组不存在环境库兹涅茨曲线效应，中等收入组则存在该效应，该拐点为8543.62美元。依据门槛值分组，使用传统方法与使用门槛协整模型方法均得到一致估计结果。该估计结果也与现实相一致。研究的政策意义在于，降低全球碳排放的主要责任应该由高收入发达国家承担。

关键词: 环境库兹涅茨曲线, 门槛协整模型, 面板数据, CO2排放量

Abstract: This paper, based on110 countries' 1960—2009 panel data, uses threshold cointegration model to verify the feasibility of environmental Kuznets hypothesis. Countries can be divided into three categories by threshold values20218and 311 dollars, their GDP per capita are 125, 4537 and 26452 dollars respectively. Theyare also divided by incomes into low, middle and high groupsvia significant threshold error correction coefficients 0.805, -0.234 and 1.802,indicating no environmental Kuznets curve effect among high and low income groups, but in the middleincome group with turning point at 8543.62 dollars. These results are also consistent with traditional method and actuality. This paper concludes that the developed countries of high income shall takethe major responsibility in reducing global carbon dioxide emission.

Key words: environmental Kuznets curve, threshold integration model, panel data, CO2 emission

中图分类号:

F205

李维，罗天. 环境库兹涅茨曲线与门槛协整模型——基于CO2排放量的国际数据验证[J]. 资源与产业, 2015, 17(5): 96-102.

Li Wei, Luo Tian. ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE AND THRESHOLD COINTEGRATION MODEL VERIFIED BY GLOBALCARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION DATA[J]. Resources & Industries, 2015, 17(5): 96-102.

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环境库兹涅茨曲线与门槛协整模型——基于CO2排放量的国际数据验证

ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE AND THRESHOLD COINTEGRATION MODEL VERIFIED BY GLOBALCARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION DATA

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