资源与产业 ›› 2016, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (6): 33-39.DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20161223.007

• 资源评价 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于系统动力学的区域页岩气开发水资源承载力评价模型研究

姜孟,李华姣   

  1. (1中国地质大学 人文经管学院,北京 100083;2 国土资源部资源环境承载力评价重点实验室,北京 100083)
  • 收稿日期:2016-11-02 修回日期:2016-11-03 出版日期:2017-01-05 发布日期:2017-01-10

EVALUATION MODEL OF REGIONAL WATER CARRYING CAPACITY IN SHALE  GAS DEVELOPMENT BASED ON SYSTEM DYNAMICS METHOD

JIANG Meng, LI Hua-Jiao   

  1. (1.School of Humanities and Economic Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China; 2.Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resources and Environment, MLR, Beijing 100083, China)
  • Received:2016-11-02 Revised:2016-11-03 Online:2017-01-05 Published:2017-01-10

摘要: 文章采用“系统动力学”方法,构建了以水资源、人口、产业发展和页岩气4大子系统为支撑的“区域页岩气开发水资源承载力系统动力学模型”,并结合美国重要页岩气地——Marcellus页岩气地的Bradford郡实证数据进行了不同情景下的仿真模拟,在此基础上总结和归纳对中国页岩气开发及相关政策制定的启示:1)在开发前需要系统分析区域人口和产业发展情况以及页岩气单井开采水资源需求量;2)在开采过程中,要逐步提高页岩气水资源的回收技术,通过制定强制性的法律法规以及相关补贴政策,提高页岩气的回流率和重新利用率,从而提高区域水资源对于页岩气开采的承载能力。

关键词: 页岩气, 水资源承载力, 系统动力学, 子系统, Marcellus页岩气地

Abstract: This paper uses system dynamics to establish an evaluation model of regional water carrying capacity in shale gas development based on water resource, population, industrial development and shale gas, simulates the Bradford county, Marcellus, USA’s vital shale gas base under different scenarios, and provides references for China’s shale gas development and policy from analyzing population, industrial development and water demand for single shale gas hole before developing, improving shale gas recovery during mining through enacted laws, regulations and allowance, increasing the reflux rate and reusing rate, and accordingly raising the carrying capacity of regional water resource on shale gas development.

Key words: shale gas, carrying capacity of water resource, system dynamic, sub-system, Marcellus shale gas base

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