关键词: 稀缺资源；对外贸易；节点；误差修正模型；自回归模型；波动因素 

Abstract: This paper, aiming at the factors of price fluctuation of rare sources in foreign trade, presents a method under many constraints, establishes a price fluctuation correlated network of rare resource in foreign trade, which is used to analyze the complexity of price fluctuation from non-dimensional, coefficient, and joints. Combined with vector self\|regress model, vector error correction model and normalized least\|square regress, a model is set up to analyze the factors of price fluctuation of rare resource in foreign trade with results showing that real GDP and real trading amount are the primary factors, and US dollar index, gold price, gambling proportion are secondary.  

Key words: rare resource, foreign trade, joints, error correction model, self-regress model, fluctuation factors