基于熵权法TOPSIS模型中国钛资源供应安全评价

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20210708.001

资源与产业 ›› 2022, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (1): 26-36.DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20210708.001

基于熵权法TOPSIS模型中国钛资源供应安全评价

屈金芝¹，张艳松 ^2，3，张艳³，范晓蕾²

（1 中国人民大学商学院，北京 100872；
2 中国地质大学（武汉）资源学院，湖北武汉 430074；
3 中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所，北京 100037）

收稿日期:2021-05-06 修回日期:2021-06-01 出版日期:2022-02-20 发布日期:2022-03-12
通讯作者: 张艳松，博士生，主要从事资源产业经济研究。yansong7769@163.com
作者简介:屈金芝，硕士生，主要从事资源产业经济研究。E-mail: 673714380@qq.com
基金资助:
自然资源部中国地质调查项目（DD20190199）；中国工程院项目（cKCEST-2020-1-26）。

SUPPLY SECURITY OF CHINA'S TITANIUM RESOURCE BASED ON ENTROPY TOPSIS MODEL

QU Jinzhi ¹, ZHANG Yansong ^{2, 3}, ZHANG Yan 3, FAN Xiaolei²

（1. Business School, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;
2. School of Resources, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China;
3. Institute of Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037, China）

Received:2021-05-06 Revised:2021-06-01 Online:2022-02-20 Published:2022-03-12
Contact: ZHANG Yansong
About author:E-mail: 673714380@qq.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为研究复杂条件下我国钛矿资源安全形势，本文构建钛资源安全评价指标体系，利用熵权法TOPSIS模型对中国钛资源2000-2020年供应安全形势进行评价。首先，根据我国经济社会发展趋势和外部安全环境演化形势，界定矿产资源安全内涵，提出应重点关注供应风险、需求形势、市场风险和地缘安全4个维度，并进一步分解为商业环境、国内外供应潜力、消费增速等8个具体指标；其次，利用熵权法计算各指标权重，构建中国钛资源安全评价加权矩阵；最后，利用TOPSIS模型确定不同指标正负理想值，选用欧式距离计算中国钛资源安全评价指标到理想解的距离，进而对中国不同时间钛资源供应安全进行评价。研究发现，中国钛资源供应安全影响因素中需求形势、供应安全、地缘安全和市场风险重要程度依次降低，其中，对外依存度（25.9%）、国内供应潜力（17.4%）、供应通道安全性（13.4%）和商业环境（12.3%）是中国钛资源供应安全最重要的影响因素；我国钛资源安全指标从2000年的0.842下降到2020年的0.290，资源供应安全总体形势逐步恶化；2000-2020年我国钛资源军事安全评价指标从0.125下降至0.008，供应安全从0.297下降至0.024，商业环境指标从0.122下降至0.024；当前，制约我国钛资源安全的主要因素是资源运输通道军事保障能力较弱、进口来源国政治稳定性差、国内资源储量消耗较快。为保障我国钛资源供应安全，提出如下具体应对建议: 加快军事投送能力，保障远洋运输安全；参与国际矿业治理，构建新型矿业格局；优化体制机制环境，支持海外矿业投资。

关键词: 钛资源, 供应安全, 风险评估, TOPSIS模型

Abstract: In order to study China's titanium security under complicated situations, this paper establishes an evaluation index system of titanium resource security, and uses entropy TOPSIS model to assess China's titanium resource supply security in 2000 to 2020. According to China's economy trend and external security environment,this paper defines the content of mineral resource security, and presents four dimensions needing attention, supply risk, demand situation, market risk and geographical security, which are further decomposed into 8 indexes such as commercial environment, domestic and international supply potential, consumption acceleration. Entropy is used to calculate the weights of indexes and a weighted matrix of China's titanium resource security evaluation is established. TOPSIS model is applied to determine the positive and negative ideal values of indexes, whose distance to China's titanium resource security evaluationis estimated by means of Euclidean distance, so that China's titanium resource supply security over time is evaluated. Importance of demand situation, supply security, geographical security and market risk to China's titanium resource security decreases, with major factors including external dependence (25.9%), domestic supply potential (17.4%), supply channel security (13.4%) and commercial environment (12.3%). The overall security indicator has decreased from 0.842 in 2000 to 0.290 in 2020, 0.125 to 0.008 in military security, 0.297 to 0.024 in supply security, and 0.122 to 0.024 in commercial environment, suggesting a worsening titanium supply security situation. The chief constraints on China's titanium resource security are poor resource transportation channel for military security, unstable political environment of exporters and fast domestic consuming capability. This paper presents suggestions on intensifying military transporting capacity, guaranteeing oceanic transportation, participating in global mining industry, establishing new mining pattern, optimizing operating mechanism and supporting overseas mining investment.

Key words: titanium resource, supply security, risk evaluation, TOPSIS model

中图分类号:

F205

屈金芝, 张艳松, 张艳, 等. 基于熵权法TOPSIS模型中国钛资源供应安全评价[J]. 资源与产业, 2022, 24(1): 26-36.

QU Jinzhi, ZHANG Yansong, ZHANG Yan, et al. SUPPLY SECURITY OF CHINA'S TITANIUM RESOURCE BASED ON ENTROPY TOPSIS MODEL[J]. Resources & Industries, 2022, 24(1): 26-36.

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基于熵权法TOPSIS模型中国钛资源供应安全评价

SUPPLY SECURITY OF CHINA'S TITANIUM RESOURCE BASED ON ENTROPY TOPSIS MODEL

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