资源与产业 ›› 2022, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (1): 115-125.DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20211221.005

• 非主题来稿选登 • 上一篇    下一篇

长江三角洲地区工业用水量与经济增长的脱钩研究

章恒全 1,徐甜甜 1,张陈俊 2   

  1. (1. 河海大学 商学院,江苏 南京 211100;
    2. 河海大学 企业管理学院,江苏 常州 213022
  • 收稿日期:2021-02-23 修回日期:2021-10-17 出版日期:2022-02-20 发布日期:2022-03-13
  • 通讯作者: 徐甜甜,硕士生,主要从事管理科学理论与应用研究。 ttxu605@126.com
  • 作者简介:章恒全,博士、教授,主要从事水利经济与资源管理研究。E-mail: hqzhang630@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(17YJC790194)。

DECOUPLING STUDY ON INDUSTRIAL WATER USE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN YANGTZE RIVER DELTA REGION

ZHANG Hengquan 1, XU Tiantian 1, ZHANG Chenjun 2   

  1. (1. Business School,Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 
    2. School of Business Administration, Hohai University,  Changzhou 213022, China
  • Received:2021-02-23 Revised:2021-10-17 Online:2022-02-20 Published:2022-03-13
  • Contact: XU Tiantian
  • About author:E-mail: hqzhang630@163.com

摘要: 测算长江三角洲地区工业用水量的影响因素分解效应,分析长江三角洲地区工业用水量与经济增长之间的脱钩态势,探究其脱钩关系,为制定工业用水相关管理政策,缓解水资源消耗,推动长江三角洲地区经济绿色高质量发展提供参考。基于2001—2018年长江三角洲地区的时序数据,采用LMDI模型分解该地区工业用水量变化的影响因素。利用Tapio弹性指数分析长三角地区工业用水量与经济增长之间的脱钩状态。在此基础上剔除经济产出效应对工业用水量的影响,进一步构建脱钩努力模型,考察其他影响因素对工业用水量减少的脱钩努力程度。研究表明:1)工业用水量的影响因素可分解为四大效应,其中,节水技术累计效应为-731.01亿m3,主要抑制工业用水量上升,产业结构效应对工业用水量的影响随时空演变而变化,经济产出累计效应为644.00亿m3,人口规模累计效应为71.08亿m3,均促进工业用水量上升,前者影响更为显著;2)长江三角洲地区整体呈现出从弱脱钩转向强脱钩的态势,各省市脱钩状态存在差异;3)长江三角洲地区各省市节水技术效应脱钩努力指标值总是大于0,该效应脱钩贡献始终最大,产业结构效应和人口规模效应的脱钩努力指标值时常小于0,脱钩努力程度偏小,且随省市变化有所不同。节水技术进步是抑制工业用水量上升的主要因素,产业结构调整是促使工业用水量下降的次要因素,经济产出效应和人口规模效应都是导致工业用水量上升的重要因素。长江三角洲地区应坚持技术改善与政策引导齐头并进,产业升级与经济转型协同配合,实现区域经济与环境平衡发展。

关键词: 工业用水量, 脱钩努力模型, LMDI, Tapio弹性指数, 长江三角洲地区

Abstract: This paper measures the decomposition effects of industrial water use factors in the Yangtze River Delta region, analyzes the decoupling status and relation between industrial water use and economic development, and offers references for making industrial water use policies, mitigating water consumption, and boosting a high quality green development in the Yangtze River Delta region. Based on temporal data in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2001—2018, this paper uses LMDI model to decompose the factors of industrial water use changes, and applies Tapio elasticity index to study the decoupling relation between industrial water use and economic development. A decoupling effort model is built with removal of economic output effect, which is used to analyze the decoupling effort extent of the other factors of industrial water use reduction. The factors of industrial water use could be decomposed to four major effects. Water-saving technology has an accumulative effect of -73.101 billion m3, which mainly inhibits the increase of industrial water use. Industrial structure and population have an accumulative effect of 64.4 billion m3 and 71.08 billion m3, both increasing industrial water use. The decoupling state of the Yangtze River Delta region shifts from weak decoupling to strong decoupling on the whole, varying with provinces/cities. Decoupling effort index of water-saving technical effect, the biggest contributor to decoupling, is always above 0, while that of industrial structure effect and population effect is normally below 0, small and varying with provinces/cites. This paper concludes water-saving technical advance is the chief factor to restrain the increase of industrial water use; industrial structural adjustment is the minor factor to reduce industrial water use, while the economic output and population effects are the major factors that lead to the increase of industrial water. Therefore, in order to achieve the balanced development between economic and environment, the Yangtze River Delta region should improve water-saving technologies, strengthen policy guidance, promote industrial upgrading and accelerate economic transformation.

Key words:  industrial water use, decoupling effort model, LMDI, Tapio elasticity index, Yangtze River Delta region

中图分类号: