关键词: 去产能, 节能减排, 投入产出模型, 钢铁产业

Abstract: This paper, based on China's input/output data of 2017 and carbon emission coefficient of standard coal, uses sole regional environmental input/output model to estimate the direct and complete energy conservation and emission reduction effects under different steel-capacity-cutting scenarios, aiming at providing supportive study for policies evaluation. Under the scenario of 25 million tons capacity cutting, 19 million tons of standard coal can be saved directly, 32 million tons in total saving, and 40 million tons of carbon dioxide emission can be directly reduced, 68.37 million tons in total reduction. Under the scenario of 37.5 million tons capacity cutting, 28.56 million tons of standard coal can be saved directly, 48.15 million tons in total saving, and 60.84 million tons of carbon dioxide emission can be directly reduced, 103 million tons in total reduction. Under the scenario of 100 million tons capacity cutting, 76 million tons of standard coal can be saved directly, 1.94% of China's energy consumption in 2017, and 128 million tons in total saving, 3.28% of China's energy consumption in 2017; and 162 million tons of carbon dioxide emission can be directly reduced, 273 million tons in total reduction. Under the scenario of 150 million tons capacity cutting, 114 million tons of standard coal can be saved directly, and 193 million tons in total saving, 4.93% of China's energy consumption in 2017; and 243 million tons of carbon dioxide emission can be directly reduced, 410 million tons in total reduction. Steel-capacity-cutting policy has notable energy-saving and emission-reduction effects and the total energy-saving and emission-reduction far outweighs the direct. Capacity-cutting substantially contributes to China's response to climate changes. However, steel sector is one of China's major industries containing large employment in its up- and down-stream. Employment shall be comprehensively considered amid steel-capacity-cutting process in an orderly way. This paper does not cover the diminishing effects from raised energy efficiency and emission reduction effects from adjusted energy structure, which needs further studies.

Key words: capacity-cutting, energy conservation and emission reduction, input/output model, steel industry