资源与产业 ›› 2022, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (1): 136-147.DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20211227.001

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中国区域经济和产业的空间布局演变特征分析

陈晨   

  1. (深圳市规划国土发展研究中心,广东 深圳 518034
  • 收稿日期:2021-07-01 修回日期:2021-12-12 出版日期:2022-02-20 发布日期:2022-03-13
  • 作者简介:陈晨,硕士,主要从事土地管理与土地政策研究。E-mail:397034213@qq.com

THE EVOLUTION CHARACTERISTICS OF SPATIAL LAYOUT OF CHINA'S REGIONAL ECONOMY AND INDUSTRY

CHEN Chen   

  1. (Shenzhen Urban Planning & Land Resource Research Center, Shenzhen 518034,China
  • Received:2021-07-01 Revised:2021-12-12 Online:2022-02-20 Published:2022-03-13
  • About author:E-mail:397034213@qq.com

摘要: 分析中国区域经济空间布局特征以及产业空间布局变化对整体经济的驱动关联作用,进而提出南北方、东西部区域协调、均衡发展的宏观政策建议。通过重心理论运用集合经验模态分解法(EEMD)和灰色关联度分析方法,以基于时间序列具有多尺度周期波动的视角,重点分析1952—2014年我国区域经济重心的变动特征及其与产业重心移动的关联性。研究发现,经济重心的变动是由准9 a、准20 a、准50 a的周期波动与趋势项复合而成的,在纬度向上主要以长周期要素(方差贡献率63.76%)和固有趋势决定,在经度向上主要以短周期要素(方差贡献率7598%)与固有趋势决定。产业重心移动和经济重心变动的关联性在纬度向上显示第一产业与经济的关联性逐渐减弱,第二产业和经济的关联性一直较强,第三产业与经济的关联性逐步增强;在经度向上,三次产业重心的移动均能影响经济重心的变动,且第三产业重心和经济重心的关联度逐渐增加。通过剥离周期性波动因素,显示经济重心的变动趋势是向南、向西移动,但由于受到自然条件与社会条件的制约,向南、向东移动受到的拉力较大。经济重心的实际移动和固有趋势存在差异,从而表现出区域经济空间布局的不均衡。均衡国民经济空间布局既需要政策、战略的调整,也需要遵循市场力量,发挥比较优势,优化区域产业结构。南北方的差异主要在于市场发展的程度与产业升级的速度,北方应遵循产业演替的规律,提高市场化程度,加快发展符合要素结构和比较优势的第三产业。东西部的差距主要在于区位优势与集聚效应,西部需要完善区域基础设施建设,提高对不同层次劳动力的社会保障服务质量,承接东部转移的符合区域比较优势的产业,实现东西部产业和要素的良性互动。

关键词: 经济重心, 产业重心, EEMD分解, 关联性, 空间布局

Abstract:  Analyze the characteristics of China's regional economic spatial distribution and the driving effect of changes in industrial spatial layout on the overall economy, and then propose macro-policy recommendations for the coordinated and balanced development of the North-South,  East-West regions. By the center of gravity theory, using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and grey correlation degree analysis method, from the perspective of multi-scale periodic fluctuation based on time series, this paper focuses on the change characteristics of China's regional economic gravity center from 1952 to 2014 and its correlation with the movement of industrial gravity center. It is found that the change of economic gravity center is compounded of near-9 a, near-20 a and near-50 a's periodic fluctuations and tendency. Latitude is mainly determined by long period factors (variance contribution rate 63.76%) and inherent trend, while longitude is mainly determined by short period factors (variance contribution rate 75.98%) and inherent trend.In latitude, the relevance between the primary industry and the economy is gradually weakened, the relevance between the secondary industry and the economy keeps stable and strong, the relevance between the tertiary industry and the economy becomes enhancement. In longitude, the movement of the three industries' gravity centers can affect the fluctuation of economic gravity center, the correlation between gravity center of the tertiary industry and the economic gravity center is gradually increasing. Separating the periodic fluctuation factors, the moving trend of the economic gravity center is to south and west. Restricted by natural and social conditions, the movement to  south and east is subject to a large pull. There are differences in the actual movement and inherent trend of economic gravity center, which shows the imbalance of regional economic spatial layout. The balance of the spatial layout of the national economy not only needs the adjustment of policies and strategies, but also needs to follow the market forces and comparative advantages to optimize the regional industrial structure. The difference between the North and the South mainly lies in the degree of market development and the speed of industrial upgrading. The North should follow the law of industrial succession, improve the degree of marketization, and accelerate the development of the tertiary industry in line with the factor structure and comparative advantage. The gap between the East and the West mainly lies in the location advantage and agglomeration effect. The West needs to improve the regional infrastructure construction, and improve the quality of social security services for different levels of labor force, undertake the industries in line with the regional comparative advantage transferred from the East,  realize the benign interaction between the industries and factors in the East and the West.

Key words: economic gravity center, industrial gravity center, EEMD, relevance, spatial layout

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