资源与产业 ›› 2022, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (4): 145-149.DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20220429.001

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基于特征价格模型的二手电力物资价值评估方法研究

李杨,黄晓明,林明晖,高明,岳衡,丁靖   

  1. (国网浙江省电力有限公司宁波供电公司物资部,浙江 宁波 315000)
  • 收稿日期:2021-06-10 修回日期:2022-02-08 出版日期:2022-08-20 发布日期:2022-09-05
  • 作者简介:李杨,硕士、工程师,主要从事供应链运营管理、电气工程及其自动化研究。E-mail:13876736@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国网浙江省电力有限公司双创项目(C511JZ200009)

VALUES EVALUATION OF SECOND-HAND ELECTRIC MATERIALS BASED ON FEATURED PRICING MODEL

LI Yang, HUANG Xiaoming, LIN Minghui, GAO Ming, YUE Heng, DING Jing   

  1. (Resource Management Department, State Grid Ningbo Electric Power Supply Company, Ningbo 315000, China)
  • Received:2021-06-10 Revised:2022-02-08 Online:2022-08-20 Published:2022-09-05

摘要: 二手电力物资是指经过首次使用后的电力设备等物资,或由于不可抗拒等因素造成的可出售或修复后仍具备使用价值的物资。二手电力物资管理是电力企业管理中一个重要组成部分,为了加强二手电力物资管理,合理利用现有的物资资源,针对电力企业目前二手电力物资管理实际存在的问题,以及传统二手电力物资价值评估方法忽略了对新材料价格波动的考虑,导致传统评估结果出现较大误差的问题,提出基于特征价格模型的二手电力物资价值评估。首先采用线性函数计算电力物资的价格,构建特征价格模型,然后利用主成分分析法定量评估二手电力物资价值,并设计二手电力物资价值评估流程,再利用二手电力物资价值的影响因素与历史交易价格的相关性检验和回归分析,确定不同因素与价格的关系,确定主成分个数,进而建立主要影响因素的回归预测模型,最后基于主成分分析结果,将二手电力物资影响因素进行时序排序,完成基于特征价格模型的二手电力物资价值评估。为验证所研究的基于特征价格模型的二手电力物资价值评估方法的有效性,设计仿真实验,并将传统的评估方法与所研究的评估方法进行评估效果对比。实验结果表明:研究方法的评估准确度为95%左右,明显高于现有方法的准确度;该方法在各类评估项目中其耗时均较短,且始终低于3 min,最低评估时间可低至1 min,说明所提方法的应用效果非常理想。

关键词: 特征价格模型, 二手电力物资, 价值评估, 相关性分析

Abstract: Second-hand electric materials refer to those used electric devices with problems made by irresistible causes, which can be saleable, restorable and usable. Management of second-hand electric materials is a key task in power companies. This paper, aiming at boosting used electric materials management and appropriately using used materials, studies the issues existing in the management of used electric materials in power companies,and presents value evaluation of used electric materials based on featured pricing model which overcomes the errors of traditional methods without considering the price changes of new materials.Linear function is used to calculate the price of electric materials with which featured pricing model is established. Principal component analysis is employed to quantitatively evaluate the values of second-hand electric materials. Flowchart is designed; factors and pricing history are also used to establish a regression forecast model.All factors are placed in a temporal order, which are used to evaluate the value of used electric materials based on featured pricing model. To validate this model, a simulating test is designed to compare with a traditional method. Results show an accuracy of about 95%, obviously higher than the traditional way, and fast speed, always less than 3 minutes, 1 minute at minimum, suggesting this method is effective. 

Key words: featured pricing model, second-hand electric materials, value evaluation, relevance analysis

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