资源与产业 ›› 2022, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (3): 134-145.DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20220527.003

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基于CGE模型的生态补偿与宏观经济效应分析——以长三角为例

娄文声,田贵良   

  1. (河海大学 商学院,江苏 南京 211100)
  • 收稿日期:2021-08-06 修回日期:2021-07-28 出版日期:2022-06-20 发布日期:2022-07-20
  • 通讯作者: 田贵良,博士、教授,主要从事水资源经济与生态经济方面的研究。E-mail: tianguiliang@hhu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:娄文声,硕士生,主要从事水资源经济方面研究 E-mail:lws19971029@163.com

A CASE STUDY ON YANGTZE RIVER DELTA: ECOLOGICAL COMPENSATION AND MACROSCOPIC ECONOMIC EFFECTS BASED ON CGE MODEL

LOU Wensheng, TIAN Guiliang   

  1. (School of Business, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 211100,China
  • Received:2021-08-06 Revised:2021-07-28 Online:2022-06-20 Published:2022-07-20
  • Contact: TIAN Guiliang

摘要: 在长三角区域发展模式的长期摸索与实践中,如何协调平衡生态环境保护与经济社会发展是长三角区域高质量一体化发展的一个重要课题。现有研究虽然在环境治理与生态补偿方面进行了积极探索,但是在生态补偿标准的确定、生态治理的宏观经济效应等方面缺乏量化分析。论文在传统CGE(computable general equilibrium)模型的基础之上,将生态资源作为一种生产要素引入经济系统,并将生态环境视为一个独立主体,着重强调生态系统在社会经济运行中的价值贡献,构建了考虑生态要素的绿色SAM(social accounting matrix)表和包含生态要素投入与生态系统账户的宏观CGE模型。论文选择长三角地区作为研究对象,利用长江三角洲的具体数据对生态价值核算价格体系进行修正,量化了长三角地区的生态系统服务价值,在此基础上通过社会核算矩阵收集研究主体的相关数据,并从国内生产总值、居民收入、企业收入、政府收入以及居民消费福利水平的角度对不同水平的生态补偿会产生的宏观经济影响进行了分析。研究结果表明:提高增值税率、居民对生态环境的转移支付率、企业对生态环境的转移支付率和政府对生态环境的转移支付率等4种情景,均能引致生态补偿量增加,但是在提高相同幅度的情形中不同措施产生的效果有较大差异,以同样提高30%的情况为例,政府对生态系统转移支付率对生态补偿水平的提升作用最为明显,增长了10.01%;其次是企业对生态系统的转移支付率与居民对生态系统的转移支付率,增长率分别为2.77%与1.01%,而提高增值税率对生态补偿水平的提升效果最弱,增长率仅为077%。除此之外,相较于其他政策工具,提高增值税会对国内生产总值与居民福利水平产生比较明显的负面影响,当增值税提升30%时,GDP下降了0.002 5%,居民福利水平产生下降了0.002 7%。

关键词: 生态补偿, 生态系统服务价值, CGE模型, 社会核算矩阵, 长三角

Abstract: During the long term practice of Yangtze River delta development, how to balance eco-environmental protection and economic development is a key topic for its high-quality integration. The current study has largely explored the environmental governance and ecological compensation, but quantitatively lacks of determination of ecological compensation standards, macroscopic economic effects of ecological governance. This paper, based on the traditional CGE model, introduces ecological resource into economic system as a productive element, and regards ecological environment as an independent unit with emphasizing the value contribution of ecological system in the social economy activities. Green social accounting matrix (SAM) is established on the basis of ecology element, and macroscopic CGE model is built according to ecology element input and ecological system account. This paper uses Yangtze River delta data to correct the ecological values accounting pricing system, a quantitative tool in marking its ecological servicing values in Yangtze River delta. SAM is employed to study the impacts of ecological compensation at different levels on macroscopic economy form GDP, residents' income, companies' income, governmental income and residents' consumption levels. The results show that increment of four scenarios, value-added taxation rate, transfer payment rate of residents to eco-environment, and that of companies to eco-environment, and that of governments to eco-environment can increase ecological compensation, but the aftermath varies if at the sample increment by means of different approaches. Taking increment at 30% as an example, transfer payment rate of governments to eco-environment largely improves the ecological compensation level with an increment by 10.01%, on the top among the four scenarios, followed by transfer payment rates of companies to eco-environment and residents to eco-environment, with increment by 2.77% and 1.01%, respectively. And the last one is increment of value-added taxation rate, only by 0.77%. Compared with other policy tools, increment of value-added tax will largely impact GDP and residents' welfare level. GDP will drop by 0.002 5% and residents' welfare level will drop by 0.002 7% if vale-added tax is increased by 30%.

Key words: ecological compensation, ecosystem service servicing value, CGE model, social accounting matrix, Yangtze River delta

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