基于地理探测器的省际用水效率动态演进及驱动因子时空非均衡性研究

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20220527.012

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 我国水资源存在空间分布不均、利用效率低下、供需矛盾突出等问题，对各省用水效率进行测算，并对其时空演化特征及驱动机制进行科学分析，可为提升水资源利用效率、推动我国生态文明建设和可持续发展提供借鉴和参考。论文基于超效率SBM模型测算了2004—2019年我国30个省市（港澳台和西藏除外）的用水效率，采用非参数核密度估计从全国和东、中、西三大区域两个层面描述其时序动态演进规律，通过空间可视化表达、空间自相关分析、冷热点分析，从空间分异性和空间关联性两个角度刻画其空间格局演化特征，并借助地理探测器探究其驱动因子的时空异质性以及因子间的交互作用机制。结果表明：1）我国总体及东、中、西部地区的用水效率呈波动下降趋势，用水效率高值区省份数量减少，低值区省份数量增加，省际效率差异经历了先扩大再缩小的演进特征；2）我国用水效率在空间上呈现“东—中—西”阶梯式递减的分布格局，存在明显的正向空间自相关性，在空间分布上存在高—高和低—低的集聚特征，且这种相关性呈现出由强到弱再变强的“Ｕ型”演变特征，而且2004—2019年我国用水效率的空间分异性增强，两极化趋势明显，“东热西冷”，热点区范围先收敛后发散，冷点区范围先缩小后保持稳定；3）各驱动因子在不同时期、不同地区的影响程度具有显著差异，2004—2019年各影响因子的q值显著提高且数值差距缩小，主导因素趋于多元化，但经济发展水平和城镇化水平始终是核心驱动因子。任意因子交互后，都表现为双因子增强或非线性增强，即两因子共同作用会增强其对用水效率空间分异的作用强度。

关键词: 用水效率, 时空动态演进, 核密度估计, 空间自相关, 地理探测器

Abstract: China's water resources is characterized by heterogeneously spatial distribution, low use efficiency, and severe supply-demand conflict. This paper measures China's provincial water use efficiencies, and studies their temporal-spatial evolution and driving mechanism, providing reference for China to improve water use efficiencies, to boost ecological civilization construction and sustainable development. Super-efficiency SBM model is used to estimate China's 30 provinces' (cities) water use efficiencies from 2004 to 2019, and non-parameter kernel density is applied to illustrate their temporal-spatial evolution from two levels, nationwide and eastern, middle and western regions. Spatial visualization, spatial autocorrelation and cold-hot point are employed to depict their spatial pattern evolution from spatial differentiation and spatial correlation, and geographic detector is used to explore the temporal-spatial heterogeneity of drives and interactive mechanism among drives. The water use efficiencies show a falling trend in a fluctuated manner in the whole China and in eastern, central and western, with decreasing province counts of higher efficiencies, and increasing of lower, suggesting provincial efficiency variance has experienced an enlarging-diminishing evolution. China's water use efficiency shows a distributing pattern of eastern-middle-western, downwards, spatially, existing an outstanding positive spatial auto-correlation with a high-high and low-low clustering feature, and showing a “U-shaped” evolution of strong-weak-strong. From 2004 to 2019, China's water use efficiency displays an intensifying spatial differentiation with polarization of “eastern hot-western cold”, hot ranges shrinking then dispersing, and cold ranges shrinking then stabilizing. All drives largely vary with periods and regions. Q values of drives from 2004 to 2019 has been outstandingly increased with a diminishing variance. The major drives are becoming diversified, but economic level and urbanization level are always the key drives. After any drive is interacting with the other, the both will be increased, or in a non-linear increased, indicating that the two drives can jointly will intensify the spatial differentiation of water use efficiency.

Key words: water use efficiency, temporal-spatial dynamic evolution, kernel density estimation, spatial auto-correlation, geographic detector

中图分类号:

F323.213

章恒全, 顾倩雯, 张陈俊. 基于地理探测器的省际用水效率动态演进及驱动因子时空非均衡性研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2022, 24(3): 81-93.

ZHANG Hengquan, GU Qianwen, ZHANG Chenjun. TEMPORAL-SPATIAL IMBALANCE OF PROVINCIAL WATER USE EFFICIENCY DYNAMIC EVOLUTION AND DRIVES BASED ON GEOGRAPHIC DETECTOR[J]. Resources & Industries, 2022, 24(3): 81-93.

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