基于补贴政策的氢燃料电池汽车产业动力学演化研究——以江苏省为例

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20220802.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 作为动力转型和汽车工业可持续发展的重要方向，我国高度重视燃料电池汽车产业的发展。由于我国燃料电池汽车产业起步较晚，目前仍处于示范运营状态。产业演化与变动趋势直接关乎氢燃料电池汽车产业的发展策略与政策设计，而产业的可预测性也是产业政策成功的重要保障。为推动氢燃料电池汽车产业化进程、实现产业政策效用最大化，经过系统剖析产业机理，依据相关政策及文献，结合产业规划目标，构建了江苏省氢燃料电池汽车产业的系统动力学因果关系模型和存量流量模型，并验证了模型的有效性。同时深入分析江苏省氢燃料电池汽车产业发展演化趋势，针对不同情景进行仿真研究和政策分析，揭示了不同财政补贴政策情景对产业发展的影响。研究结果表明：在现行政策下，难以实现2030年氢燃料电池汽车保有量及加氢站数量的预期目标；现阶段，氢燃料电池汽车的购车补贴对销售的影响不大，氢气价格的下降和加氢站数量的增加更能够推动氢燃料电池汽车规模化和产业化；与加氢站相比，油氢站成本更低，可以更好地改善加氢站运营负荷率，从而满足车辆的氢气需求。为加速产业发展、实现2030年目标，应继续加大氢燃料电池汽车产业投入，调整补贴倾向；针对补贴政策进行适当调整，同时优化财政补贴资源分配，在政府财政资源有限的情况下，为促进产业健康发展，首先重点支持氢能源基础产业链建设，尤其是加氢站建设等积极性财政补贴政策，并可适当降低燃料电池汽车的购车补贴份额；为促进产业有序发展，建议前期加大示范应用购车投入，后期加大加氢站建设，特别是油氢站的建设。研究结论为政府制定科学合理的氢燃料电池汽车产业政策提供借鉴与参考。

关键词: 氢燃料电池汽车, 系统动力学, 仿真分析, 财政补贴, 江苏省

Abstract:

HFCV industry is a sustainable direction to fuel transformation and automobile industry; it catches China’s much attention. Due to the lagging fuel electric automobile industry, its operation is still in demonstration. Industrial evolution and changes are directly related to its development strategies and policies on HFCV industry; industrial predictability is a vital basis for a successful industrial policy. This paper, aiming at boosting China’s industrialization process of HFCV and at fulfilling the industrial policies, establishes a systematic dynamics causality model and stock flow model of HFCV in Jiangsu province based on related policies, reference and industrial plannings, which have been validated. Its evolutional trend and scenarios simulation and policy also reveal the impacts of different financial allowance policies on this sector. Under the current policies, it is hard to reach the 2030 objectives on HFCV stock and hydrogen fuel stations in that the purchase allowance policies have little impact on sales. Decreasing hydrogen price and increasing hydrogen fuel stations can boost this sector’s scale and industrialization. Gas-hydrogen stations, lower in cost, can have a better operating performance in meeting the demands of hydrogen compared with hydrogen stations. This paper presents suggestions on increasing inputs on HFCV industry, adjusting allowance policies, optimizing financial allowance allocation, focusing on hydrogen energy infrastructure construction, especially the hydrogen stations, decreasing purchase allowance. This also gives proposals on demonstrating purchase inputs at the prior stage, intensifying hydrogen(gas-hydrogen) station construction at the later stage. This study provides helpful references for governments to make appropriate industrial policies on HFCV industry.

Key words: hydrogen fuel automobile, systematic dynamics, simulation analysis, financial allowance; Jiangsu province

中图分类号:

N941.3

赵振东, 刘国庆, 辛江慧, 等. 基于补贴政策的氢燃料电池汽车产业动力学演化研究——以江苏省为例[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(1): 27-39.

ZHAO Zhendong, LIU Guoqing, XIN Jianghui, et al. DYNAMIC EVOLUTION OF HYDROGEN-FUEL CELL VEHICLE (HFCV) INDUSTRY BASED ON ALLOWANCE POLICIES IN JIANGSU PROVINCE [J]. Resources & Industries, 2023, 25(1): 27-39.

参考文献

操群, 许骞, 2019. 电动汽车发展与产业政策影响研究[J]. 产业经济评论（2）: 20-46. 〔CAO Q, XU Q, 2019. Research on the development of electric vehicles and the impact of industrial policy[J]. Review of Industrial Economics（2）: 20-46.〕

陈傲, 柳卸林, 高广宇, 2012. 新兴产业高被引专利的形成特征: 以燃料电池为例[J]. 科研管理, 33（11）: 9-15, 23. 〔CHEN A, LIU X L, GAO G Y, 2012. The formation characteristics of highly cited patents in emerging industry based on fuel cell industry[J]. Science Research Management, 33（11）: 9-15, 23.〕

陈英姿, 刘建达, 2021. 日本车用氢能的产业发展及支持政策[J]. 现代日本经济（2）: 80-94. 〔CHEN Y Z, LIU J D, 2021. The industrial development and supporting policies for hydrogen energy for vehicles in Japan[J]. Contemporary Economy of Japan（2）: 80-94.〕

程永伟, 穆东, 2018. 基于SD动态博弈的新能源汽车供应链补贴策略优化[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 28（12）: 29-39. 〔CHEN Y W, MU D, 2018. Study on optimal subsidy strategy in new energy vehicle supply chain based on SD game model[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 28（12）: 29 -39.〕

傅沂, 姜明明, 杨东晓, 2021. 新能源汽车行业的政策设计及优化研究: 基于Van Damme模型的三方演化博弈视角[J]. 工业技术经济, 40（10）: 23-32. 〔FU Y, JIANG M M, YANG D X, 2021. Research on policy design and optimization of new energy automobile industry: the perspective of the three-party evolutionary game based on the Van Damme model[J]. Journal of Industrial Technological Economics, 40（10）: 23-32.〕

付跃强, 夏天添, 2021. 基于系统动力学的电动汽车产业发展建模与仿真[J]. 系统仿真学报, 33（4）: 973-981. 〔FU Y Q, XIA T T, 2021. Modeling and simulation of electric vehicle industry development based on system dynamics[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 33（4）: 973-981.〕

黄晓林, 胡锡晟, 黄卉, 等, 2021. 中国氢能源产业政策量化分析及区域布局研究[J]. 科技情报研究, 3（2）: 83-95. 〔HUANG X L, HU X S, HUANG H, et al, 2021. Research on Chinas hydrogen energy industry policy by quantitative analysis and it's regional policy distribution[J]. Scientific Information Research, 3（2）: 83-95.〕

金莉娜, 陆怡雅, 谢婧媛, 等, 2019. 基于GREET模型的新能源汽车全生命周期的环境与经济效益分析[J]. 资源与产业, 21（5）: 1-8. 〔JIN L N, LU Y Y, XIE J Y, et al, 2019. Environment and economy analysis on entire life circle of new energy vehicles based on GREET model[J]. Resources & Industries, 21（5）: 1-8.〕

雷雪亚, 2021. 基于生命周期总成本分析的燃料电池汽车典型应用场景研究: 2021中国汽车工程学会年会论文集（2）[C]. 北京: 机械工业出版社: 528-534. 〔LEI X Y, 2021. Study on typical application scenarios of fuel cell vehicles based on total life cycle cost: proceedings of 2021 annual meeting of China Society of Automotive Engineering（2）[C]. Beijing: China Machine Press: 528-534.〕

凌文, 刘玮, 李育磊, 等, 2019. 中国氢能基础设施产业发展战略研究[J]. 中国工程科学, 21（3）: 76-83. 〔LING W, LIU W, LI Y L, et al, 2019. Development strategy of hydrogen infrastructure industry in China[J]. Strategic Study of CAE, 21（3）: 76-83.〕

刘应都, 郭红霞, 欧阳晓平, 2021. 氢燃料电池技术发展现状及未来展望[J]. 中国工程科学, 23（4）: 162-171. 〔LIU Y D, GUO H X, OUYANG X P, 2021. Development status and future prospects of hydrogen fuel cell technology[J]. Strategic Study of CAE, 23（4）: 162-171.〕

刘宗巍, 史天泽, 郝瀚, 等, 2018. 中国燃料电池汽车发展问题研究[J]. 汽车技术（1）: 1-9. 〔LIU Z W, SHI T Z, HAO H, et al, 2018. Research on main problems associated with development of fuel cell vehicle in China[J]. Automobile Technology（1）: 1-9.〕

卢超, 慕函岐, 孙华平, 2021. 我国氢燃料电池汽车财政补贴政策的系统动力学仿真研究[J]. 产业经济评论（3）: 63-76. 〔LU C, MU H Q, SUN H P, 2021. A system dynamics simulation on the financial subsidy policy of Chinese hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry[J]. Review of Industrial Economics（3）: 63-76.〕

邵志刚, 衣宝廉, 2019. 氢能与燃料电池发展现状及展望[J]. 中国科学院院刊, 34（4）: 469-477. 〔SHAO Z G, YI B L, 2019. Developing trend and present status of hydrogen energy and fuel cell development[J]. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 34（4）: 469-477.〕

谭旭光, 余卓平, 2020. 燃料电池商用车产业发展现状与展望[J]. 中国工程科学, 22（5）: 152-158. 〔TAN X G, YU Z P, 2020. Development status and prospects of fuel cell commercial vehicle industry[J]. Strategic Study of CAE, 22（5）: 152-158.〕

王同涛, 刘桂成, 王新东, 等, 2013. 燃料电池产业最新进展及对我国的启示[J]. 科技进步与对策, 30（5）: 74-77. 〔WANG T T, LIU G C, WANG X D, et al, 2013. Advances of fuel cell industrialization and enlightenments with the inspiration to China[J]. Science & Technology Progress and Policy, 30（5）: 74-77.〕

熊勇清, 陈曼琳, 2016. 新能源汽车需求市场培育的政策取向: 供给侧抑或需求侧[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 26（5）: 129-137. 〔XIONG Y Q, CHEN M L, 2016. Study of the new energy vehicles demand market's cultivated policy orientation: supply side or demand side[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 26（5）: 129-137.〕

衣宝廉, 2018. 燃料电池和燃料电池车发展历程及技术现状[M]. 6版. 北京: 科学出版社.

张微, 2021. 新能源汽车燃料电池技术产业发展现状分析[J]. 金属功能材料, 28（3）: 23-28. 〔ZHANG W, 2021. Analyse of new energy vehicle fuel cell technology developing status[J]. Metallic Functional Materials, 28（3）: 23-28.〕

钟永光, 贾晓菁, 钱颖, 2016. 系统动力学前沿与应用[M]. 北京: 科学出版社: 123.

FUEL CELL AND HYDROGEN ENERGY ASSOCIATION, 2019. Road map to a US hydrogen economy[R]. Washington, DC: Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy Association.

JAPAN’S MINISTRY OF ECONOMY, TRADE AND INDUSTRY, 2014. METI has compiled a strategic read map for hydrogen and fuel cells [EB/ OL]. （2014-06-24）[2022-01-04]. https: //www. meti. go. jp/english/ press/2014/0624_04. html.

JAPAN’S MINISTRY OF ECONOMY, TRADE AND INDUSTRY, 2019. The strategic road map for hydrogen and fuel cells[EB/OL]. （2019-03-12）[2022-01-04]. https: //www. enecho. meti. go. jp/category/saving_and_new/advanced_systems/hydrogen/efforts/#1.

HOSSEINI S E, WAHID M A, 2020. Hydrogen from solar energy, a clean energy carrier from a sustainable source of energy[J]. International Journal of Energy Research, 44（6）: 4110–4131.

HYDROGEN ROADMAP EUROPE, 2019. A sustainable pathway for the European energy transition: fuel cells and hydrogen joint undertaking[EB/OL]. （2019-02-11）[2022-01-09]. http: //www. ihfca. org. cn/index. php?m=content&c=index&a%20=show&catid=8&id=191. html.

[1]	崔博京, 陈其慎, 王琨, 等. 未来十年新业态下铝资源需求分析 [J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(6): 31-40.
[2]	杨秉臻. 产业绿色转型升级与就业结构优化的互动关系[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(6): 53-63.
[3]	王瑶, 张北赢. 江苏省沿江经济带旅游碳足迹与收入脱钩分析[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(6): 130-137.
[4]	李可柏, 丁志蕾. 江苏省工业用水供需系统动力学模型与工业用水生产要素投入仿真研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(4): 127-138.
[5]	高珊, 曹明霞, 李丹. 江苏省碳排放特征分析及达峰预测[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(3): 1-9.
[6]	朱智洺, 桂梦婷, 李红艳. “双碳”目标下江苏省碳平衡潜力预测研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(1): 1-13.
[7]	徐雨珠, 谭俊涛, 王仲智. 基于疫情扰动的江苏省经济韧性提升研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2022, 24(5): 10-18.
[8]	杜焱, 胡鑫杨. 我国2030年实现碳达峰路径研究——基于经济、能源、碳排放系统的SD模型[J]. 资源与产业, 2022, 24(5): 19-28.
[9]	姜翔程, 王睿. 基于LMDI-Attribution的江苏省水足迹效率变化驱动力分析[J]. 资源与产业, 2022, 24(4): 30-41.
[10]	高心雨, 董会和, 高禄年, 等. 基于SD模型的长春市城市经济-社会-土地利用系统动态模拟研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2022, 24(4): 90-102.
[11]	陆佳勤, 甘信华. 江苏省工业碳排放时空分异及减排策略[J]. 资源与产业, 2022, 24(4): 150-156.
[12]	庄远，吴正，刘戎. 工业结构、空间溢出与绿色全要素生产率研究——以江苏省为例[J]. 资源与产业, 2020, 22(4): 23-31.
[13]	巩芳，韩青. 草原生态补偿标准对牧民收入的影响研究——以锡林郭勒盟为例[J]. 资源与产业, 2019, 21(5): 44-51.
[14]	孙付华，刘海玉，张胜男. 基于耕地资源价值的绿色GDP核算研究——以江苏省为例[J]. 资源与产业, 2019, 21(3): 60-66.
[15]	李俊，王仲智. 江苏省非农产业集聚格局及其演变趋势[J]. 资源与产业, 2019, 21( 1): 63-68.