研发投入、创新绩效与经济增长的动态关系研究——基于山东省16个地市面板数据的PVAR实证研究

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20220829.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 随着经济全球化程度的进一步加深，研发活动成为提高科技创新能力、推动经济结构优化升级的重要环节，厘清研发投入、创新绩效和经济增长之间的相互影响作用，有利于从深层次理解区域科技创新转型的内在实质，为促进国家创新驱动转变提供参考。基于2012—2020年山东省16个地市的面板数据，建立PVAR模型，运用脉冲响应函数、方差分解等方法研究研发投入、创新绩效与经济增长之间的动态交互作用，以及这种关系在山东省三大经济圈之间的差异。研究结果显示，经济增长与研发投入呈滞后1期的相互促进作用，省会经济圈和胶东经济圈在响应强度和速度上更为显著，其中研发投入对经济增长的贡献度在省会经济圈和胶东经济圈分别为40.1%、39.8%；经济增长对创新绩效存在抑制作用，在胶东经济圈表现更明显，创新绩效会促进经济增长，在鲁南经济圈贡献度高达85.9%；研发投入对创新绩效贡献度较低，胶东经济圈呈滞后1～2期的抑制作用，创新绩效对研发投入呈滞后1期的促进作用，省会经济圈和胶东经济圈响应强度和速度上更为显著，在鲁南经济圈贡献度高达80.4%。研究认为山东省整体经济增长、研发投入和创新绩效之间具有促进作用；省会经济圈经济增长、研发投入和创新绩效之间均存在促进作用，但是经济增长和研发投入到创新绩效的转化能力不高；胶东经济圈经济增长与研发投入、研发投入与创新绩效之间都有显著的促进作用，但是创新产出与经济增长两者的转化效率较低；鲁南经济圈经济增长、研发投入和创新绩效之间具有促进作用，但是三者之间缺乏更有效的良性互动。

关键词: 研发投入, 创新绩效, 经济增长, PVAR模型, 山东三大经济圈

Abstract:

As economic globalization develops, R&D plays a key role in increasing innovative capacities and booting economic structural optimization. Study on dynamic relation among R&D inputs, innovative performance and economic growth can give us a deep understanding on regional innovative transformation, and provide references on innovative drives changes. This paper uses Shandong’s 2012 to 2020 16 prefectures’ panel data to establish PVAR model, and applies pulse response function and deviation to their interaction among R&D inputs, innovative performance and economic growth, and their variance in Shandong’s three economic zones. R&D inputs show one stage lagging behind economic growth, but faster in capital and Jiandong economic zones with their contributing rates up to 40.1% and 39.8%, respectively. Economic growth plays an adverse role against innovative performance, more in Jiaodong economic zone. Innovative performance promotes economic growth, with a contributing rate up to 85.9% in southern Shandong economic zone. R&D inputs have a low contributing rate to innovative performance, lagging 1 to stages in Jiaodong economic zone. Innovative performance promotes R&D inputs in a lagging 1 stage, but faster in capital and Jiaodong economic zones, with a contributing rate up to 80.4% in southern Shandong economic zone. The results generally show an interactive promotion among economic growth, R&D inputs and innovative performance. In capital economic zone, economic growth and R&D inputs have promoting roles on innovative performance, with a low conversion capacity from economic growth and R&D inputs to innovative performance. In Jiaodong economic zone, an outstanding promoting role exists both between economic growth and R&D inputs, and between R&D inputs and innovative performance, but low in the conversion rate between innovative outputs and economic growth. In southern Shandong economic zone, economic growth and R&D inputs have promotion on innovative performance, but insufficient beneficial interaction among the three.

Key words: R&D inputs, innovative performance, economic growth, PVAR model, Shandong’s three economic zones

中图分类号:

F270.3

程铭, 闫峰, 杜廷霞, 等. 研发投入、创新绩效与经济增长的动态关系研究——基于山东省16个地市面板数据的PVAR实证研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(1): 97-108.

CHENG Ming, YAN Feng, DU Tingxia, et al. PVAR STUDY ON DYNAMIC RELATION AMONG R & D INPUTS, INNOVATIVE PERFORMANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH BASED ON SHANDONG'S 16 PREFECTURES' PANEL DATA [J]. Resources & Industries, 2023, 25(1): 97-108.

参考文献

安存红, 周少燕, 2022. 高技术产业空间集聚与区域创新绩效: 基于R&D投入的中介效应[J]. 技术经济与管理研究（2）: 35-40. 〔AN C H, ZHOU S Y, 2022. Spatial agglomeration of high-tech industries and regional innovation performance: based on the intermediary effect of R&D investment[J]. Journal of Technical Economics & Management（2）: 35-40.〕

巴曙松, 吴丽利, 熊培瀚, 2022. 政府补助、研发投入与企业创新绩效[J]. 统计与决策, 38（5）: 166-169. 〔BA S S, WU L L, XIONG P H, 2022. Government subsidies, R&D investment and enterprise innovation performance[J]. Statistics & Decision, 38（5）: 166-169.〕

杜雯秦, 郭淑娟, 2021. 企业异质性、研发投入与创新绩效: 基于GPS的实证研究[J]. 科技管理研究, 41（23）: 124-132. 〔DU W Q, GUO S J, 2021. Firm heterogeneity, R&D investment and innovation performance: an empirical study based on GPS[J]. Science and Technology Management Research, 41（23）: 124-132.〕

冯海波, 葛小南, 2020. R&D投入与经济增长质量: 基于绿色全要素生产率的省际面板数据分析[J]. 软科学, 34（4）: 7-12. 〔FENG H B, GE X N, 2020. R&D investment and the quality of economic growth: interprovincial panel data analysis based on the green total factor productivity[J]. Soft Science, 34（4）: 7-12.〕

李茫茫, 王红建, 严楷, 2021. 经济增长目标压力与企业研发创新的挤出效应: 基于多重考核目标的实证研究[J]. 南开管理评论, 24（1）: 17-26, 31-32. 〔LI M M, WANG H J, YAN K, 2021. Economic growth targets and crowding-out effect of R&D: an empirical study based on multi-objective assessment theory[J]. Nankai Business Review, 24（1）: 17-26, 31-32.〕

李翔, 邓峰, 2017. 区域创新、产业结构优化与经济增长方式转变[J]. 科技管理研究, 37（17）: 51-59. 〔LI X, DENG F, 2017. Regional innovation performance, industrial structure optimization and transformation of economic growth pattern[J]. Science and Technology Management Research, 37（17）: 51-59.〕

李晓燕, 2019. 专利对经济发展的贡献度分析[J]. 统计与决策, 35（20）: 117-120.

刘丽华, 沈红, 2022. 高校研发经费投入与我国经济增长是双向因果关系吗: 基于省级面板数据的PVAR实证研究[J/OL]. 重庆高教研究. [2022-02-21]. http: //kns. cnki. net/kcms/detail/50. 1028. G4. 20220126. 0926. 002. html. 〔LIU L H, SHEN H, 2022. Is there a two-way causal relationship between university R&D investment and China's economic growth: an empirical study based on PVAR model [J/OL]. Chongqing Higher Education Research. [2022-02-21]. http: //kns. cnki. net/kcms/detail/50. 1028. G4. 20220126. 0926. 002. html.〕

孟凡蓉, 陈子韬, 袁梦, 2019. 科技创新、科技资源与经济增长的耦合研究[J]. 科学学与科学技术管理, 40（9）: 63-74. 〔MENG F R, CHEN Z T, YUAN M, 2019. Research on coupled-mode relationship of S&T innovation, S&T resource and economic growth[J]. Science of Science and Management of S. &T. , 40（9）: 63-74.〕

祁特, 陈良华, 王惠庆, 2020. 政府R&D补贴与新能源汽车企业创新绩效关系的实证分析: 基于R&D支出和技术水平中介调节效应[J]. 预测, 39（5）: 16-22. 〔QI T, CHEN L H, WANG H Q, 2020. Empirical analysis on the relationship between government R&D subsidies and innovation performance of new energy carmakers: based on the mediation role of R&D expenditure and moderation role of technological level[J]. Forecasting, 39（5）: 16-22.〕

山东省人民政府, 2020. 山东省人民政府关于加快省会经济圈一体化发展的指导意见[J]. 山东省人民政府公报（17）: 1-18. 〔THE PEOPLE'S GOVERNMENT OF SHANDONG PROVINCE, 2020. Guidance of the People's Government of Shandong Province for accelerating the integrated development of provincial capital economic circle[J]. Gazette of the People's Government of Shandong Province（17）: 1-18.〕

苏屹, 李丹, 2021. 研发投入、创新绩效与经济增长: 基于省级面板数据的PVAR实证研究[J]. 系统管理学报, 30（4）: 763-770. 〔SU Y, LI D, 2021. Research and development investment, innovation performance, and economic growth: an empirical study of PVAR based on provincial panel data[J]. Journal of Systems & Management, 30（4）: 763-770.〕

孙维峰, 王艺申, 2018. 自然资源依赖、技术进步与经济增长[J]. 资源与产业, 20（1）: 83-89. 〔SUN W F, WANG Y S, 2018. Natural resources dependence, technical advances and economic growth[J]. Resources & Industries, 20（1）: 83-89.〕

王琴, 刘冬辉, 孟令杰, 2021. “一带一路”省市制造业全要素生产率的变化及其影响因素: 基于2006—2016年经验数据的分析[J]. 资源与产业, 23（4）: 70-77. 〔WANG Q, LIU D H, MENG L J, 2021. Changes and factors of total factor productivity of provincial manufacturing industry along “the Belt and Road”: analysis of empirical data from 2006 to 2016[J]. Resources & Industries, 23（4）: 70-77.〕

肖煜, 龚桂英, 2022. 光伏企业研发投入强度与企业绩效的实证分析: 基于财务杠杆和股权性质的调节作用[J/OL]. 资源与产业. （2022-03-08）[2022-05-11]. https: //doi. org/10. 13776/j. cnki. resourcesindustries. 20220307. 001.

辛璐, 罗守贵, 2020. 科技创新促进经济增长的滞后效应研究: 基于省际面板数据的检验[J]. 管理现代化, 40（3）: 39-42. 〔XIN L, LUO S G, 2020. Research on the lag effect of economic growth caused by scientific and technological innovation based on provincial panel data[J]. Modernization of Management, 40（3）: 39-42.〕

杨丽君, 2020. 技术引进与自主研发对经济增长的影响: 基于知识产权保护视角[J]. 科研管理, 41（6）: 9-16. 〔YANG L J, 2020. Influence of technology import and independent R&D on economic growth: a study based on the perspective of intellectual property protection[J]. Science Research Management, 41（6）: 9-16.〕

詹祥, 周绿林, 孙晓阳, 2017. 科技研发投入、科技专利产出与经济增长: 基于江苏面板数据的分析[J]. 科技管理研究, 37（15）: 97-103. 〔ZHAN X, ZHOU L L, SUN X Y, 2017. Empirical study on relationship between input of R&D, output of S&T patent and economic growth: based on panel data of Jiangsu Province[J]. Science and Technology Management Research, 37（15）: 97-103.〕

张泰梓, 唐玲玲, 2022. R&D内外部支出与创新绩效: 基于知识存量的门槛回归[J]. 科技管理研究, 42（5）: 153-161. 〔ZHANG T Z, TANG L L, 2022. R&D internal and external expenditure and innovation performance: threshold regression based on knowledge stock[J]. Science and Technology Management Research, 42（5）: 153-161.〕

张永安, 胡佩, 2019. 交互效应视角下政府补助、内部资源与创新绩效关系研究: 以战略性新兴产业上市企业为例[J]. 科技进步与对策, 36（18）: 68-77. 〔ZHANG Y A, HU P, 2019. Research on the relationship between government subsidy, internal resources and innovation performance from the perspective of interaction effect: taking strategic emerging industries listed enterprises as an example[J]. Science & Technology Progress and Policy, 36（18）: 68-77.〕

赵喜仓, 朱大鹏, 2021. 研发投入对江苏经济高质量发展的影响分析[J]. 科技管理研究, 41（12）: 70-76. 〔ZHAO X C, ZHU D P, 2021. Impact of R&D investment on high quality development of Jiangsu economy[J]. Science and Technology Management Research, 41（12）: 70-76.〕

郑珊珊, 2018. FDI对中国技术创新溢出效应的门槛特征分析[J]. 工业技术经济, 37（5）: 105-111. 〔ZHENG S S, 2018. Study of threshold characteristics of the spillover effect of FDI on Chinas technological innovation[J]. Journal of Industrial Technological Economics, 37（5）: 105-111.〕

BROUGHEL J, THIERER A D, 2019. Technological innovation and economic growth: a brief report on the evidence[J/OL]. SSRN Electronic Journal: 1-29. [2022-05-11]. http: //dx. doi. org/10. 2139/ssrn. 3346495.

BROWN J R, MARTINSSON G, PETERSEN B C, 2017. What promotes R&D? Comparative evidence from around the world[J]. Research Policy, 46（2）: 447-462.

DINCER H, Y-KSEL S, ADAL Z, et al, 2018. Organizational transformation and managing innovation in the fourth industrial revolution[M]. Pennsylvania: IGI Global: 245-263.

HONG J, 2017. Causal relationship between ICT R&D investment and economic growth in Korea[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 116: 70-75.

LIU C, XIA G J , 2018. Research on the dynamic interrelationship among R&D investment, technological innovation, and economic growth in China[J]. Sustainability, 10（11）: 4260.

LOVE I, ZICCHINO L, 2006. Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: evidence from panel VAR[J]. Quarterly Review of Economics & Finance, 46（2）: 190-210.

PATEL P, PAVITT K, 1994. Uneven （and divergent） technological accumulation among advanced countries: evidence and a framework of explanation[J]. Industrial and Corporate Change, 3（3）: 759-787.

[1]	杨秉臻. 产业绿色转型升级与就业结构优化的互动关系[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(6): 53-63.
[2]	王成军, 韩延菲. 节能减排约束下的行业经济增长路径研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(4): 1-11.
[3]	许纪校, 陆倩倩. 沉淀性冗余资源对我国制造业企业技术创新绩效的影响研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(4): 116-126.
[4]	余思晨, 田鸣, 张阳, . 国有股权、董事会连锁与企业研发投入——基于资源依赖与代理的双重视角[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(4): 139-149.
[5]	杜晓荣, 李雨凡. 农业上市公司研发强度、税收优惠与创新绩效的关系研究——基于资源基础理论[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(3): 121-132.
[6]	聂志萍, 范晓雯. 战略差异对先进制造业企业研发投入的影响——基于商业信用融资的中介作用[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(1): 122-131.
[7]	肖煜, 龚桂英. 光伏企业研发投入强度与企业绩效的实证分析——基于财务杠杆和股权性质的调节作用[J]. 资源与产业, 2022, 24(4): 21-29.
[8]	侯震梅, 张鹏彦, 周勇. 基于空间收敛视角的新疆区域经济协调发展的演变特征研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2022, 24(3): 53-62.
[9]	孙涵, 张红艳, 付晓灵. 中国经济增长与能源消费的多部门脱钩预测[J]. 资源与产业, 2021, 23(5): 11-20.
[10]	王琴, 刘冬辉, 孟令杰. “一带一路”省市制造业全要素生产率的变化及其影响因素——基于2006—2016年经验数据的分析[J]. 资源与产业, 2021, 23(4): 70-77.
[11]	张瑞华, 韩丽红. 政府支持、内部控制与资源型企业创新绩效的关系研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2021, 23(3): 29-37.
[12]	王保乾，丁陈娟. 双向FDI、经济增长与工业废水排放的关联性研究——基于面板VAR模型的实证分析[J]. 资源与产业, 2020, 22(6): 46-54.
[13]	陈翠芳，卢新海，刘茜，等. 城市土地集约利用能提升经济增长质量吗？[J]. 资源与产业, 2019, 21(3): 67-74.
[14]	马千里，李倩. 新能源、传统能源与中国经济增长关系的实证研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2019, 21(2): 85-94.
[15]	李莉，赵连荣，魏小芳，等. 基于VAR模型的河北省水资源利用与经济增长的动态关系研究 [J]. 资源与产业, 2018, 20(2): 26-32.