中国与“一带一路”沿线国家农产品贸易的虚拟水流动研究

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20221009.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 随着商品贸易，商品中所隐含的虚拟水也随之发生了转移。基于中国与“一带一路”沿线国家农产品贸易数据，测算2001、2007、2013、及2019年农产品贸易虚拟水量，分析中国与“一带一路”沿线地区虚拟水流动格局，通过位序-规模法及分形理论对各伙伴国贸易规模及空间分布发展进行研究以此来探究其垄断性及依赖性。结果表明：2001—2019年期间中国净进口“一带一路”沿线国家虚拟水量由83亿m³增至875亿m³，净出口国家数量由7个增加至27个，空间分布向均衡发展，位居前列的国家对中国的垄断性有所减弱；净出口量由33亿m³增至45亿m³，净进口国家数量由58个减少到47个，空间分布向集中发展，位居前列的国家对中国的依赖性增强；中国净进口的虚拟水类型以绿水为主，平均每年占比85.93%，主要来自于东南亚、南亚和东欧等地区；中国净出口的虚拟水类型以绿水和灰水为主，平均每年占比65.03%和24.07%，主要出口至非洲、西亚等地区；南亚、东欧、中亚、非洲及南欧由净进口区转变为净出口区；东亚仍为净进口地区。

关键词: 农产品贸易, 虚拟水, “一带一路”沿线国家, 位序-规模法, 分形理论

Abstract: Virtual water hidden in the products migrates as trades develop. This paper uses agricultural trading data of China and the “Belt and Road” nations to estimate the virtual water content in 2001, 2007, 2013 and 2019 agricultural trading, and analyzes their virtual water flow pattern, and applies rank-size and fractal theory to study their trading sizes and spatial distribution so as to analyze their monopoly and dependence. Results show that China's net imported virtual water has increased from 8.3 billion cubic meters to 87.5 from the “Belt and Road” nations from 2001 to 2019, China's net exported nations has increased to 27 from 7, distributing even with a declining monopoly from top-ranking nations. China's net exported virtual water types are mainly green, 85.9% yearly, chiefly from southeastern and southern Asia and eastern Europe. China's net imported virtual water types are green and gray, 65.03% and 24.07% yearly, respectively, mainly to Africa and western Asia, Southern Asia, eastern Europe, middle Asia, Africa, and southern Europe had transformed to net exported nations from net imported, leaving eastern Asia net imported nations.

Key words: agricultural products trade, virtual water, the “Belt and Road” nations, rank-size method, fractal theory

中图分类号:

F205

孙才志, 张佳亮. 中国与“一带一路”沿线国家农产品贸易的虚拟水流动研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2022, 24(5): 40-50.

SUN Caizhi, , ZHANG Jialiang. VIRTUAL WATER FLOW STUDY OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS TRADE BETWEEN CHINA AND THE “BELT AND ROAD” NATIONS[J]. Resources & Industries, 2022, 24(5): 40-50.

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