关键词: 外商直接投资, 制造业集聚, 空间溢出, 粤港澳大湾区

Abstract: Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macro Great Bay Area (the Great Bay) plays a vital role in leading the global economy and technical advances by its abundant natural resources and featured openness. The overflow effect of foreign direct investment can realize the manufacturing agglomeration in the Great Bay, which has become a key path to the Great Bay's openness and diversification. This paper uses locality entropy to estimate the agglomeration of the Great Bay's manufacturing and its detailed industries during 2010 to 2019 and applies SEM and SDM to study the impacts of foreign direct investment on manufacturing agglomeration. Results show that the Great Bay has specific industrial division and notable industrial agglomeration. Here foreign direct investment has a remarkable spatial overflow effect on manufacturing agglomeration with impact coefficients at 0.213 and 0.121 under neighboring matrix and economic geographical matrix, respectively. Market size and technical innovation have impacting coefficients at 0.063 and 0.316 on the local manufacturing agglomeration, boosting the local manufacturing. Capital stock promotes the neighboring manufacturing agglomeration with an impacting coefficient at 0.918. This paper concludes that advantages of the Great Bay's industrial agglomeration can lead a balanced development for the entire Guangdong province or even for the global Zhu Delta area's industries. 

Key words: foreign direct investment, manufacturing agglomeration, spatial overflow, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Great Bay Area