资源与产业 ›› 2015, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (1): 62-66.

• 资源评价 • 上一篇    下一篇

海外油气开发项目风险评价研究

蒋伟娜1, 2,*, 鞠斌山1,翟光华2,陈亚强2,蒋宏娜3,魏亮2   

  1. 1中国地质大学能源学院,北京100083;2中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083; 3中石化胜利石油工程有限公司测井公司,山东东营257096
  • 收稿日期:2014-10-23 修回日期:2014-12-03 出版日期:2015-02-20 发布日期:2015-02-20
  • 通讯作者: 蒋伟娜(E-mail: jiangweina@petrochina.com.cn)
  • 基金资助:
    中国石油天然气股份有限公司重大科技专项课题(2011E-2510)

RISK EVALUATION OF OVERSEAS OILGAS DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS

JIANG Weina1, 2,*, J Binshan1, ZHAI Guanghua2, CHEN Yaqiang2, JIANG Hongna3, WEI Liang2   

  1. 1School of Energy Resources, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China; 2Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, Beijing 100083, China; 3Logging Company, Shengli Petroleum Engineering Ltd., SinoPec, Dongying 257096, China
  • Received:2014-10-23 Revised:2014-12-03 Online:2015-02-20 Published:2015-02-20

摘要: 针对海外油气田投资开发的特点,构建海外油气开发项目风险指标体系,分别对国家风险指标和技术风险指标进行了赋值依据研究和数值量化,运用层次分析和归一化方法确定海外项目风险指标权重值,并对海外开发项目进行了风险分级。研究表明,海外高风险的开发项目主要集中在政治风险高以及技术风险高的国家和地区。同时针对不同风险提出了相应的投资对策和建议,其评价结果和建议可为海外油气项目投资优选提供一定的决策支持。

关键词: 海外油气投资, 风险指标体系, 层次分析法, 对策

Abstract: This paper, based on the overseas oilgas investment features, establishes risk evaluation index system to study the national risk index and technical risk index, sets up hierarchy risk evaluation of overseas oilgas development projects, determines the risk index weights by using hierarchy analysis and normalization, and classifies the risk levels. High risk projects are mainly coming from politics and technical. This paper presents suggestion for different risks, offering references for China to invest overseas oilgas projects and to optimize projects.

Key words: overseas oilgas investment, risk index system, AHP, approach

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