资源与产业 ›› 2020, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (6): 9-17.DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20201126.003

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基于熵权TOPSIS模型的天津市海洋资源环境承载力评价

崔文婧1,闫晶晶1,沙景华1,马玉芳1,王 福2   

  1. (1中国地质大学(北京)经济管理学院,北京 100083;2中国地质调查局天津地质调查中心,天津 300170)
  • 收稿日期:2020-03-18 修回日期:2020-06-17 出版日期:2020-12-20 发布日期:2021-01-13
  • 通讯作者: 闫晶晶 yanjingjing312@hotmail.com
  • 基金资助:
    中国地质调查局天津地质调查中心项目(D218043)

EVALUATION OF TIANJIN'S OCEANIC RESOURCES ENVIRONMENTAL CARRYING CAPACITY BASED ON ENTROPY-WEIGHTED TOPSIS MODEL

CUI Wenjing1, YAN Jingjing1, SHA Jinghua1, MA Yufang1, WANG Fu2   

  1. (1. School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China; 2.Tianjin Geological Survey Center, China Geological Survey, Tianjing 300170, China)
  • Received:2020-03-18 Revised:2020-06-17 Online:2020-12-20 Published:2021-01-13

摘要: 为评价和寻找影响天津市海洋资源环境承载力的关键因素,论文从海洋资源系统、海洋环境系统和社会经济系统中选取27项指标构建海洋资源环境承载力评价指标体系,运用熵权TOPSIS模型对天津市2007—2016年海洋资源环境承载力及3个子系统承载力进行评价,并采用灰色关联系数选择和识别影响承载力的关键因素。研究结果表明:2007—2016年天津市海洋资源环境承载力综合值处于0.341 2~0.566 4,为中等水平;2007—2016年天津市海洋资源环境承载力的发展态势呈“下降→平稳→上升→平稳”的趋势,其中2007—2010年呈不断下降趋势,2010—2012年呈较为平稳态势,2012—2014年明显上升,2014—2016年又逐步稳定;2007—2016年天津市海洋资源承载力变化幅度较低,海洋环境承载力呈先下降后上升趋势,社会经济承载力总体呈先下降后上升再下降趋势;采用灰色关联系数计算,发现SO2年度均值、环境污染治理投资占GDP比例等是影响天津市海洋资源环境承载力的关键因素。基于以上结论提出合理开发海洋资源、积极发展滨海旅游业等建议,以期提升天津市海洋资源环境承载力。

关键词: 熵权TOPSIS模型, 海洋资源环境承载力, 灰色关联系数, 可持续发展

Abstract: To evaluate the key factors of Tianjin's oceanic resources environmental carrying capacity, this paper selects 27 indicators among oceanic resource system, oceanic environmental system and social economy system to establish an evaluation index system of oceanic resources environmental carrying capacity, with entropy-weighted TOPSIS model applied to evaluate Tianjin's oceanic resources environmental carrying capacity during 2007 to 2016 and its three sub-systems, key factors identified with gray correlation coefficient. In the period of 2007 to 2016, Tianjin's oceanic resources environmental carrying capacity amounts to 0.3412 to 0.5664, an intermediate level, showing a developing trend of descending-stabilizing-rising-stabiliing, descending during 2007 to 2010, stabilizing during 2010 to 2012, rising conspicuously during 2012 to 2014, and gradually stabilizing during 2014 to 2016. Tianjin's oceanic resources carrying capacity has a little change, its oceanic environmental carrying capacity shows a “V-shaped” trend and its social economic carrying capacity has a “W-shaped” trend. Gray correlation coefficient calculation indicates that key factors are annual sulfur dioxide and pollution control investment to GDP. This paper presents suggestions on rationally developing oceanic resources and developing coastal tourism aiming at improving Tianjin's oceanic resources environmental carrying capacity.

Key words: entropy-weighted TOPSIS model, oceanic resources environmental carrying capacity, gray correlation coefficient, sustainable development

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