关键词: 碳排放, LMDI模型, STIRPAT模型, 技术进步, 结构优化

Abstract: Saving energy and reducing emission is a global topic. China has reduced carbon emission through boosting research inputs, improving energy structure and reaching industrial upgrade. Although China's high pollution industries have spent lots on research, direction and intensity of improving the overall industrial environmental effect from limiting carbon dioxide emission still lacks of concrete indicators. This paper, aiming at effect of research inputs on carbon emission, decomposes LMDI model which has been incorporated with research size effect as a factor of carbon emission, and discusses the decomposition from economic size, research size, energy structure and intensity. STIRPAT model, in order to compensate the LMDI model in flexibility, is used to further study the topic by using overall energy intensity index and research input efficiency, combined with provincial panel data. Increment of research input has little constraints on carbon emission, but improvement of research efficiency and industrial structural upgrade do. Energy structure and energy intensity are outstandingly negatively related to carbon emission. Implementation of conversion of old-new kinetic energy key projects effectively constrains carbon emission. This paper presents suggestions according to the modeling results on targeting research input, increasing research input efficiency, issuing saving power and reducing emission policies, encouraging innovation, promoting the conversion of old-new kinetic energy and optimizing industrial structure.

Key words: carbon emission, LMDI model, STIRPAT model, technological progress, structural optimization