淮河生态经济带PM2.5的时空演变特征

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20211221.013

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 分析淮河生态经济带城市大气污染的时空演变特征，探索城市大气污染类型变化与邻域的关系，为该区域制定大气污染的联防联治政策提供参考。利用2015—2019年淮河生态经济带28座设区市的PM_2.5浓度数据，运用描述性统计方法和马尔可夫链方法分析淮河生态经济带城市大气污染的时空演变特征，构建空间马尔可夫链来探讨城市大气污染类型的转移与邻域大气污染类型的关系。研究表明：1）淮河生态经济带大气污染逐年好转并呈现出夏季低、冬季高的季节性特征，但除了7月、8月、9月，淮河生态经济带年均PM_2.5浓度值仍然高于国家二级标准限度值，大气污染依旧严重。2）淮河生态经济带低浓度类型和较低浓度类型的大气污染表现出较好的稳定性，相比之下，中高浓度和高浓度的大气污染类型的稳定性较差，转为其他污染类型的概率较高。而且空间位置对城市大气污染类型转变影响显著，在不同的空间滞后条件下，邻域大气污染类型对某城市的大气污染类型转移的影响也不相同。3）淮河生态经济带大气污染类型呈现出从西北向东南依次降低的空间演变格局，且整体上有持续向低污染类型演变的趋势，区域差异性逐年减小。淮河生态经济带城市大气污染情况逐年好转，季节性明显，空间分布差异大。在考虑空间滞后条件下，淮河生态经济带大气污染类型的转移会受到邻域大气污染情况的影响，因此在大气污染防控政策的制定上，有必要考虑联防联治，尝试构建大气污染跨域协同治理系统和大气质量评价体系。

关键词: 大气污染, 时空演变, 马尔可夫链, 淮河生态经济带

Abstract: This paper analyzes the temporal-spatial evolution of urban air pollution in the Huai River Eco-economic Belt, explores urban air pollution changes with neighboring areas and provides references for making policies of air pollution control and prevention. According to PM_2.5 data of 28 cities in the Huai River Eco-economic Belt from 2015 to 2019, this paper uses descriptive statistics and Markov Chain to study the temporal-spatial evolution of air pollution and the urban air pollution type changes with neighboring air pollution types. The results show a decreasing air pollution with the feature of low-in-summer and high-in-winter. However, PM_2.5 is still above state's tier II threshold except months of July, August and September, and air pollution is still severe. Low or relatively low air pollution is stable, but medium or high air pollution are unstable, probably apt to turn into other pollution types and much impacted by spatial locations. Neighboring air pollution types unevenly impact urban air pollution type changes under different spatial lagging. Air pollution types display a decreasing spatial evolution pattern from northeast to southwest, with a tendency to low pollution generally and a diminishing regional difference. This paper concludes that the Huai River Eco-economic Belt has a decreasing urban air pollution with seasonal impacts and spatial difference. This paper presents suggestions on collaborating air pollution control and prevention through the across-regional collaboration system and air quality evaluation system.

Key words: air pollution, temporal-spatial evolution, Markov chain, the Huai River Eco-economic Belt

中图分类号:

F205

庞庆华, 向敏, 周未沫. 淮河生态经济带PM_2.5的时空演变特征[J]. 资源与产业, 2022, 24(1): 55-64.

PANG Qinghua, XIANG Min, ZHOU Weimo. TEMPORAL-SPATIAL EVOLUTION OF PM_2.5 IN HUAI RIVER ECO-ECONOMIC BELT[J]. Resources & Industries, 2022, 24(1): 55-64.

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