Abstract: This paper used system dynamics model to draw causal loop diagram and establish flow stock model, with economy, population, housing, environment, public administration as urban land use factors, and tests their simulated results from 2004 to 2018, and simulates the urban system from 2018 to 2033. Results show a discordant population-land relation will continue to exist in Changchun. Constructed area per capita increases by 47.9% from 2019 to 2033 in Changchun,and total population will be up to 4.483 92 million in Changchun downtown in 2033. Population migration is sensitive to educational resources, rather than gross value of industrial output and medical resource inputs. In Changchun city's land use structure, housing land proportion will be enlarged to 32.88%; industrial land proportion will be diminished to 18.33%; urban transportation land proportion will be first increased and then decreased, and park green land proportion will be stably at 4.33% in 2033. Under scenarios of increasing educational expenses and increasing industrial growth rate, construction area per capita decreases by 5.47% and 3.97%, which mitigates the population-land conflict. Under scenarios of increasing industrial population proportion and increasing housing growth rate, construction area per capita increases by 3.96% and 0.84%, which will not change the situation of population urbanization speed less than land urbanization speed. This paper presents suggestions on improving public administrative services, decreasing housing costs, and stabilizing urban population and attracting talents to realize a balance among urban economy, society and land use.

Key words:  urban system, natural simulation, policyoriented simulation, systematic dynamics model, Changchun city

摘要： 利用系统动力学模型，以经济、人口、住房、环境、公共管理为城市土地利用的影响要素，构建因果回路图与流量存量图，并对2004—2018年的模拟结果进行历史值检验，对2019—2033年城市系统进行模拟。结果显示：未来长春市城市人地关系不协调的状况将继续存在，2018—2033年人均建成区面积增长47.9%，2033年人口总量（仅中心市区）将达448.392万人。人口流动对教育资源较为敏感，对工业规模增长与医疗资源投入敏感性较差。2033年长春市城市用地结构中住宅比例将会扩大至32.88%，工业用地比例将不断缩小至18.33%，城市交通用地占比将呈现先增大后缩小趋势，公园绿地面积占比稳定在4.33%。在“增加教育支出”和“增加工业增长值比率”情景下，人均建成区面积比自然状态模拟的数值低，分别减少了5.47%和3.97%，即对城市人地矛盾起缓解作用；在“增加工业人口比例”和“增加住房增长率”情景下，人均建成区面积比自然状态模拟的数值高，分别增加了3.96%和0.84%，不能改变人口城市化速度慢于土地城市化速度的现状。可通过合理提升公共服务水平、降低居住成本、稳定城市人口、吸引人才，实现城市经济、社会、土地利用之间的平衡。

关键词: 城市系统, 自然状态模拟, 政策指向模拟, 系统动力学模型, 长春市