Abstract: Spatial Gini coefficient and locality entropy are used to estimate the aggregation degree and distribution of knowledge-intensive service industry and its sub-sectors in 41 prefectures in Yangtze River Delta from 2004 to 2018, and spatial Dubin model is applied to verify its impacts on the local economy and its spatial overflowing effect on the vicinity. Spatial Gini coefficient reveals that aggregation degree of commercial service sector is the largest. The aggregation index is at 0.04－0.06, generally in a U-shaped trend. Locality entropy of less than one-third cities is larger than 1 with Shanghai as center, Hangzhou, Nanjing and Hefei as sub-centers, while other cities are of low aggregation degree. Spatial Dubin modelling results show a remarkable spatial overflow effect on economy, varying with sectors. Financial service sector aggregation has constraints on the local economy, but little on the vicinity,while information technology and commercial service sector do not have a significant influence on the local economy, but have siphoning effect on the vicinity. Scientific servicing has a little influence. Generally, knowledge-intensive servicing industry aggregation largely promotes the local economy and vicinity in Yangtze River Delta,varying with sectors and regions. This paper presents suggestions on promoting a sound, balanced knowledge-intensive service industry to avoid industrial simplification, boosting it in the underdeveloped areas, optimizing its spatial aggregation and diminishing the gap between the core cities and remote cities.

Key words: knowledge-intensive service industry, aggregation, economic development, spatial overflow, Yangtze River Delta

摘要： 运用空间基尼系数和区位熵测算2004—2018年长江三角洲三省一市41个地级市的知识密集型服务业及其分行业集聚程度，分析其分布特征，借助空间杜宾模型实证检验知识密集型服务业及其分行业集聚对本地经济发展的影响和对周边地区经济发展的空间溢出效应。从空间基尼系数测算结果来看，商务服务业集聚度最高，2004—2018年长江三角洲地区知识密集型服务业集聚指数为0.04~0.06，总体呈“U”型变化趋势。从区位熵测算结果来看，长江三角洲地区仅有不足1/3的城市知识密集型服务业区位熵大于1，呈现以上海为中心，杭州、南京和合肥为副中心的“一主三副”的集中态势，而其他城市的集聚程度较低。从空间杜宾模型的实证结果来看，知识密集型服务业及其分行业集聚对经济发展具有显著的空间溢出效应，且存在一定的行业异质性：金融服务业集聚对本地的经济发展有抑制作用，对周边地区的溢出效应不显著；信息技术服务业和商务服务业集聚对本地经济发展影响不显著，但对周边地区的经济发展均有虹吸效应；科技服务业对当地及周边地区的经济发展影响较小。总体而言，长江三角洲地区知识密集型服务业集聚对本地和周边地区的经济发展都有显著的促进作用。长江三角洲地区知识密集型服务业集聚程度存在明显的行业和区域差异，应当注重知识密集型服务业中各类行业的均衡、健康发展，避免出现行业单一化；同时也需要加快相对落后地区知识密集型服务业的发展，优化其空间集聚，从而缩小核心城市和偏远城市地区之间经济发展的差距。

关键词: 知识密集型服务业, 集聚, 经济发展, 空间溢出, 长江三角洲