AN APPROACH CHINA'S 2030 CARBON PEAK BASED ON SD MODEL ON ECONOMY, ENERGY AND CARBON EMISSION SYSTEM

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20221013.002

Abstract

Abstract: This paper uses system dynamics model to interactively simulate China's carbon emission evolution trend of energy consumption during 2020 to 2050 under three scenarios. Comprehensive control scenario is set at the benchmark to study the impacts of economic,population and energy changes on gross carbon emission, and to discuss the premium approach to carbon peak. Caron peak values are forecasted to be 1.62, 1.33 and 1.14 times of 2020 under benchmark, low carbon and comprehensive control scenarios, respectively, and will reach the carbon peak in the years of 2038, 2030 and 2027 under the three scenarios, largely impacted by GDP growth rate per capita, scientific-technical inputs, proportions of the second and the third industries, fossil energy proportion and energy consumption intensity. Carbon peak is forecasted to be the nearest under the comprehensive control scenario, with minimum carbon emission peak value, a practical premium plan. The optimized approaches to carbon peak needs to be based on determining appropriate GDP growth rate per capita, boosting scientific-technical inputs, decreasing the second and the third industries proportion, adjusting energy structure and decreasing energy consumption intensity.

Key words: carbon peak, scenario forecast, system dynamics

摘要： 基于系统动力学模型，通过设定三种情景方案，动态模拟了2020—2050年我国能源消费碳排放发展演变趋势。同时，以综合调控情景为基准，考察了经济、人口和能源等因素的变动对碳排放总量的影响，探究了碳达峰的最优路径。研究发现：在基准、低碳、综合调控情景下的预测碳排放峰值分别达到了2020年碳排放量的1.62倍、1.33倍和1.14倍，三种情景下实现碳达峰的时间依次为2038年、2030年、2027年。同时，人均GDP增速快慢、科技投入强度大小、第二产业与第三产业占比高低、化石能源占比大小以及能源消费强度大小均对碳达峰时间具有较大影响。研究结果表明，综合调控情景下预测的碳达峰时间距离当前最近，碳排放峰值最小，是一种现实选择的最优方案。碳达峰最优路径的确定需要从确定适当的人均GDP增速、加大科技投入强度、降低第二产业与第三产业占比、加快能源结构调整以及降低能源消费强度入手。

关键词: 碳达峰, 情景预测, 系统动力学

CLC Number:

F205

DU Yan, HU Xinyang. AN APPROACH CHINA'S 2030 CARBON PEAK BASED ON SD MODEL ON ECONOMY, ENERGY AND CARBON EMISSION SYSTEM[J]. Resources & Industries, 2022, 24(5): 19-28.

杜焱, 胡鑫杨. 我国2030年实现碳达峰路径研究——基于经济、能源、碳排放系统的SD模型[J]. 资源与产业, 2022, 24(5): 19-28.

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