气候变化适应政策提高了城市韧性水平吗？——来自“气候适应型城市”建设试点的证据

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20250822.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在当前全球气候灾害和极端事件频发的大背景下，2017年我国首次推出韧性城市建设试点工作并于2023年提出深化建议，先行试点的成效到底如何，能否为后续工作提供有用参考值得探讨。基于2012—2022年面板数据，从经济、社会、生态和基础设施4个维度出发构建城市韧性评价指标体系，利用双重差分模型实证检验既有建设工作是否提高了试点城市韧性水平，并进一步进行传导机制分析以及异质性分析，以期对我国后续城市韧性提升工作提供有用参考。研究发现：1）我国韧性城市建设显著提高了试点地区约1.7%的韧性水平，这一结论在经过平行趋势检验和一系列稳健性检验后依旧成立，但政策效果相对有限且存在一定的滞后性；2）政策主要以统筹城市产业发展、提高地区信息化水平和增加城市社会支出为传导机制实现城市韧性水平提升；3）政策效应具有明显的区域异质性和维度异质性，中部地区和基础设施维度韧性提升效果显著。因此，后续建设工作需统筹推进地区气候变化应对工作和城市产业发展、提高城市基础设施建设水平、加快推进地区信息化建设工作、加大对科教及社会保障等方面的扶持力度、充分考虑区域和维度的平衡性，推动我国整体气候韧性全面、均衡发展，走具有地区特色的中国化韧性城市建设之路。

关键词: 气候适应型城市, 城市韧性, 政策效应, 双重差分模型

Abstract: As climatic disasters and extremes are soaring globally, China initiated resilient urban construction pilot in 2017 and presented suggestions for further reform. The performance review of the pilots can provide references for follow-up. This paper uses 2012 to 2022 panel data to establish an evaluation index system of urban resilience from economy, society, ecology and infrastructures, and applies difference-in-difference (DID) model to verify if the existing pilots raised urban resilience, conductivity mechanism and heterogeneity analysis provides suggestions for increasing urban resilience in the future. China's resilient urban construction pilots have increased their resilience by 1.7%, validated by parallel trend test and robustness test, but the policies are of lagging and with limits. Policies can boost urban resilience through overall planning urban industrial development, improving regional informatization and increasing urban expense as conducting mechanism. Policy effectiveness is of obvious regional and regional heterogeneity, with resilience raised largely in central areas and in infrastructures. This paper puts forward overall planning regional climatic changes to promote urban industrial development, to boost infrastructural construction, to advance regional informatization, and to support education and social security, weighing between areas and dimensions for a Chinese-featured path to urban resilience construction.

Key words: climatic adaptive cities, urban resilience, policy effectiveness, DID model

中图分类号:

F293

刘伟铭, 朱丽娟. 气候变化适应政策提高了城市韧性水平吗？——来自“气候适应型城市”建设试点的证据[J]. 资源与产业, 2025, 27(6): 16-29.

LIU Weiming, ZHU Lijuan. DO CLIMATIC CHANGE ADAPTIVE POLICIES RAISE URBAN RESILIENCE? EVIDENCE FROM “CLIMATIC ADAPTIVE CITIES” CONSTRUCTION PILOT[J]. Resources & Industries, 2025, 27(6): 16-29.

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