碳排放权交易政策对制造业企业碳韧性的影响研究

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20260106.003

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 党的二十大明确提出要把推动经济社会发展绿色化、低碳化作为实现高质量发展的关键环节。碳排放权交易政策是推动企业绿色低碳转型的重要举措，加快提升碳韧性是实现企业绿色低碳转型、社会经济高质量发展的有效路径。论文以我国A股上市公司制造业企业数据为样本，采用渐进双重差分模型、熵值法对制造业企业碳韧性进行度量，探究碳排放权交易政策与制造业企业碳韧性的关系，以期从企业内部提升视角出发基于环境规制理论和资源错配理论揭示制造业企业创新效应和资源配置效应的作用机制，从企业外部提升视角出发基于信息不对称理论探讨信息效应的作用机制。研究显示：1)碳排放权交易政策对制造业企业碳韧性的影响显著为正，表明碳排放权交易政策的实施通过制度压力传导、市场激励和资源重构，能够显著提升制造业企业的碳韧性水平，并通过动态效应检验发现碳排放权交易政策对制造业企业碳韧性的促进作用具有一定滞后性；2)机制研究发现，创新效应、资源配置效应和信息效应是影响制造业企业碳韧性水平的中介机制，碳排放权交易政策通过技术创新、资源优化配置和缓解信息不对称推动制造业企业碳韧性水平提升；3)异质性分析发现，碳排放权交易政策对制造业企业碳韧性的提升作用因企业所有权性质、碳排放量和所处市场竞争程度不同而有所差异，在国有制造业企业、高碳排放制造业企业和处于高市场竞争的制造业企业中碳排放权交易政策对企业碳韧性的提升作用更显著。研究结果可为碳排放权交易政策与企业碳韧性发展的良性循环提供参考，助力绿色低碳转型升级与经济高质量发展。

关键词: 碳排放权交易政策, 碳韧性, 制造业企业, 高质量发展

Abstract: Low carbon greening is a key step towards the high-quality economic development, of which carbon emission trading policies play a key role. Increasing carbon resilience is an effective path to manufacturing's low carbon greening and high-quality economic development. This paper, based on China's A-listed manufacturing data, uses generalized DID model and entropy to measure manufacturing's carbon resilience, to explore the relationship between carbon emission trading policies and manufacturing's carbon resilience, attempting to reveal the mechanism of manufacturing's innovation and resource allocation on the basis of environmental regulation theory and resources misallocation theory from the inner perspective and to discuss the mechanism of information effects on the basis of information asymmetric theory from external perspective. Carbon emission trading policies plays a positive role in manufacturing's carbon resilience through institutional pressure transmission, market stimulation and resource reconstruction, but with some lagging effects verified by dynamic tests. Mechanism indicates innovative effect, resource allocation effect and information effect play a mediating role in manufacturing's carbon resilience, carbon emission trading policies increase manufacturing's carbon resilience from technical innovation, optimized resources allocation and mitigating asymmetric information. Heterogeneity shows that improvement of carbon emission trading policies on manufacturing's carbon resilience vary with ownership, carbon emission and market competition, more in state-owned, high carbon emission and highly market competitive. This paper presents references for making carbon emission trading policies and increasing manufacturing's carbon resilience, helpful in low carbon green transformation & upgrading and high-quality economic development.

Key words: carbon emission trading policies, carbon resilience, manufacturing, high-quality development

中图分类号:

F205
270

张倩, 王文静. 碳排放权交易政策对制造业企业碳韧性的影响研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2026, 28(1): 18-31.

ZHANG Qian, WANG Wenjing. Impacts of Carbon Emission Trading Policies on Manufacturing's Carbon Resilience[J]. Resources & Industries, 2026, 28(1): 18-31.

参考文献

包进, 2024. “双碳”背景下数字经济对流通业绿色效率的影响: 基于双重中介效应的实证[J]. 商业经济研究(21): 115-119.

顾向一, 祁毓, 2023. 迈向合作治理: 我国碳排放权交易治理体系的重构[J]. 江苏社会科学(5): 163-172. 〔GU X Y, QI Y, 2023. Moving towards collaborative governance: Restructuring China's carbon emissions trading governance system[J]. Jiangsu Social Sciences(5): 163-172.〕

胡洁, 于宪荣, 韩一鸣, 2023. ESG评级能否促进企业绿色转型: 基于多时点双重差分法的验证[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究(7): 90-111.〔HU J, YU X R, HAN Y M, 2023. Can ESG rating promote green transformation of enterprises?[J]. Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics(7): 90-111.〕

江艇, 2022. 因果推断经验研究中的中介效应与调节效应[J]. 中国工业经济(5): 100-120. 〔JIANG T, 2022. Mediating effects and moderating effects in causal inference[J]. China Industrial Economics(5): 100-120.〕

梁林, 郭悦雯, 2024. 高碳排制造业发展质量提升研究: 基于碳韧性的新思路[J]. 科技进步与对策, 41(19): 67-78. 〔LIANG L, GUO Y W, 2024. Quality improvement of high carbon emission manufacturing development: New ideas based on carbon resilience[J]. Science and Technology Progress and Policy, 41(19): 67-78.〕

刘自敏, 王橹堰, 2024. 城市经济韧性与碳减排能力的耦合协调度及空间收敛特征[J]. 统计与决策(16): 62-66.

芦彩梅, 李欣瑜, 2024. 碳排放权交易能提升高能耗企业韧性吗?: 基于准自然实验的证据[J]. 金融理论与实践(8): 30-42. 〔LU C M, LI X Y, 2024. Can carbon emission trading improve the resilience of energy-intensive companies: Based on quasi-natural experiment evidence[J]. Financial Theory and Practice(8): 30-42.〕

陆春华, 李虹, 2023. 碳试点政策、绿色创新和企业生产效率[J]. 经济问题探索(4): 38-60. 〔LU C H, LI H, 2023. Carbon pilot policies, green innovation and enterprise production efficiency[J]. Inquiry Into Economic Issues(4): 38-60.〕

吕文栋, 赵杨, 田丹, 等, 2017. 风险管理理论的创新: 从企业风险管理到弹性风险管理[J]. 科学决策(9): 1-24. 〔LV W D, ZHAO Y, TIAN D, et al., 2017. Innovation of risk management theory: From enterprise risk management to resilient risk management[J]. Scientific Decision Making (9): 1-24.〕

马茜, 任晓松, 张红兵, 等, 2023. 碳交易政策、研发创新与污染性企业碳绩效[J]. 科研管理, 44(7): 114-123. 〔MA Q, REN X S, ZHANG H B, et al., 2023. Carbon trading policy, R&D innovation and carbon performance of polluting enterprises[J]. Science Research Management, 44(7): 114-123.〕

彭文斌, 邝嫦娥, 李文意, 等, 2024. 长江中游城市群城市更新与生态韧性空间关联网络及影响研究[J]. 地理科学, 44(11): 1936-1945. 〔PENG W B, KUANG C E, LI W Y, et al., 2024. Spatial correlation network and impacts of urban renewal and ecological resilience in urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 44(11): 1936-1945.〕

任胜钢, 李波, 2019. 排污权交易对企业劳动力需求的影响及路径研究: 基于中国碳排放权交易试点的准自然实验检验[J]. 西部论坛, 29(5): 101-113. 〔REN S G, LI B, 2019. Research on the influence of emissions right trading on corporate labor demands and its path: A quasi-natural experiment test based on China carbon emission right trading experiment[J]. Western Forum, 29(5): 101-113.〕

邵帅, 李兴, 2022a. 市场导向型低碳政策能否推动经济高质量发展?: 来自碳排放权交易试点的证据[J]. 广东社会科学(2): 33-45. 〔SHAO S, LI X, 2022. Can market-oriented low-carbon policies promote high-quality economic development? : Evidence from the carbon emissions trading pilots[J]. Social Sciences in Guangdong(2): 33-45.〕

邵帅, 李嘉豪, 2022b.“低碳城市”试点政策能否促进绿色技术进步?: 基于渐进双重差分模型的考察[J]. 北京理工大学学报(社会科学版), 24(4): 151-162. 〔SHAO S, LI J H, 2022. Can the low-carbon policy promote the progress of green technology? an investigation based on time-varying DID model[J]. Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology (Social Sciences Edition), 24(4): 151-162.〕

沈洪涛, 黄楠, 2019. 碳排放权交易机制能提高企业价值吗?[J]. 财贸经济, 40(1): 144-161. 〔SHEN H T, HUANG N, 2019. Will the carbon emission trading scheme improve firm value?[J].Financial and Trade Economics, 40(1): 144-161.〕

王茹, 2021. 碳税与碳交易政策有效协同研究: 基于要素嵌入修正的多源流理论分析[J]. 财政研究(7): 25-37. 〔WANG R, 2021. Research on effective synergy between carbon tax and carbon trading policy: Analysis based on multi-source theory with element embedding correction[J]. Public Finance Research(7): 25-37.〕

王文举, 钱新新, 2024. 试点碳排放权交易市场对中国工业低碳转型的作用机制研究[J]. 经济与管理研究, 45(1): 16-34. 〔WANG W J, QIANG X X, 2024. Mechanism of pilot carbon emission trading markets on low-carbon transformation in China's industry[J]. Research on Economics and Management, 45(1): 16-34.〕

谢洁萌, 陈林昊, 2024. 低碳城市试点政策提升流通产业链韧性的实证分析[J]. 商业经济研究(6): 14-17.

徐建中, 贾大风, 李奉书, 等, 2018. 装备制造企业低碳技术创新对企业绩效的影响研究[J]. 管理评论, 30(3): 82-94. 〔XU J Z, JIA D F, LI F S, et al., 2018. Research on the relationship between equipment manufacturers' low carbon technology innovation and their performance[J]. Management Review, 30(3): 82-94.〕

尹夏楠, 明华, 耿建芳, 2021. 高管薪酬激励对企业资源配置效率的影响研究: 基于产权性质和行业异质性视角[J]. 中国软科学, 36(s1): 260-267. 〔YIN X N, MING H, GENG J F, 2021. Impact of executive compensation incentive on the efficiency of enterprise resource allocation: Distinguish property right and industry[J]. China Soft Science, 36(s1): 260-267.〕

于善波, 张军涛, 2021. 长江经济带省域绿色全要素生产率测算与收敛性分析[J]. 改革(4): 68-77. 〔YU S B, ZHANG J T, 2021. The calculation and convergence analysis of provincial green total factor productivity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt[J]. Reform(4): 68-77.〕

张明斗, 杨雨欣, 2025. 低碳城市建设对生态韧性的影响效应与机制: 基于低碳城市试点政策的准自然实验[J].华东经济管理, 39(4): 69-81. 〔ZHANG M D, YANG Y X, 2025. The impact and mechanism of low-carbon city construction on ecological resilience: A quasi-natural experiment based on the low-carbon city pilot policy[J]. East China Economic Management, 39(4): 69-81〕

赵树宽, 赵煦琨, 邵东, 2025. 数字基础设施对区域创新资源配置效率的影响研究: 基于资源错配的视角[J].吉林大学社会科学学报, 65(1): 148-164, 238. 〔ZHAO S K, ZHAO X K, SHAO D, 2025. Research on the impact of digital infrastructure on the efficiency of regional innovation resources allocation: In the perspective of resource misallocation[J]. Jilin University Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 65(1): 148-164, 238.〕

周畅, 蔡海静, 刘梅娟, 2020. 碳排放权交易的微观企业财务效果: 基于“波特假说”的PSM-DID检验[J]. 财经论丛(3): 68-77. 〔ZHOU C, CAI H J, LIU M J, 2020. Research on enterprise financial effects of the carbon emission trading: Based on the “Porter Hypothesis” & PSM-DID test[J]. Collected Essays on Finance and Economics(3): 68-77.〕

周兰, 肖思慧, 2024.董事高管责任保险与碳信息披露质量[J].工业技术经济(1): 132-141. 〔ZHOU L, XIAO S H, 2024. Directors' and officers' liability insurance and carbon information disclosure quality[J]. Journal of Industrial Technology and Economy(1): 132-141.〕

ACEMOGLU D, AKCIGIT U, HANLEY D, et al., 2016. Transition to clean technology[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 124(1): 52-104.

BECK T, LEVINE R,LEVKOV A, 2010. Big bad banks? The winners and losers from bank deregulation in the United States[J]. The Journal of Finance, 65(5): 1637-1667.

BRANGER F, QUIRION P, 2014. Would border carbon adjustments prevent carbon leakage and heavy industry competitiveness losses?: Insights from a meta-analysis of recent economic studies[J]. Ecological Economics, 99: 29-39.

HALLEGATTE S, 2014. Economic resilience: definition and measurement[EB/OL]. (2014-05-01)[2025-03-22]. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/ 350411468149663792.

HOLLING C S, 2001. Understanding the complexity of economic, ecological, and social systems[J]. Ecosystems, 4: 390-405.

KIKSTRA J S, NICHOLLS Z R J, SMITH C J, et al., 2022. The IPCC sixth assessment report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: From emissions to global temperatures[J]. Geoscientific Model Development, 15(24): 9075-9109.

PORTER M E, VAN DER LINDE C, 1995. Toward a new conception of the environment-competitiveness relationship[J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4): 97-118.

TOMASZ I, KATARZYNA B M, 2019. Organizational resilience of family businesses[J].Problemy Zarzdzania, 17(82): 186-204.

YANG X Y, JIANG P, PAN Y, 2020. Does China's carbon emission trading policy have an employment double dividend and a Porter effect?[J]. Energy Policy, 142: 111492.

ZHOU Z, MA Z, LIN X W, 2022. Carbon emissions trading policy and green transformation of China's manufacturing industry: Mechanism assessment and policy implications[J]. Frontiers in Environmental Science(10): 984612.

[1]	刘思涵, 蔡林美. 碳信息披露对制造业企业绿色全要素生产率的影响研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2025, 27(6): 107-117.
[2]	张金锁, 刘金华. 高质量发展目标下中国流域生态保护研究可视化分析[J]. 资源与产业, 2024, 26(5): 26-36.
[3]	陈笑雨, 田凤雅, 蔡俊, 等. 高质量发展视角下的安徽省城市建设用地利用效率时空演变分析[J]. 资源与产业, 2024, 26(3): 78-89.
[4]	杜晓荣, 黄彤欣. 资源协同对企业数字化转型的影响研究——基于经济政策不确定性的调节作用[J]. 资源与产业, 2024, 26(3): 147-159.
[5]	柯文岚, 李文慧, 闫晶晶. 京津冀城市群高质量发展测度及时空分异特征研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2024, 26(1): 1-14.
[6]	王理想, 王建民. 碳中和目标下长三角地区能源结构调整的经济影响及其差异性[J]. 资源与产业, 2024, 26(1): 25-34.
[7]	尹庆民, 林茵茵. 基于GTWR模型的数字经济对经济高质量发展的时空效应研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2024, 26(1): 86-99.
[8]	丁雄军, 王莉, 魏源, 等. 构建“山水林土河微”生命共同体促进酿酒行业高质量发展的思考与实践[J]. 资源与产业, 2024, 26(1): 124-132.
[9]	张婕, 任雨菲, 胡周汉. 南水北调平原水库服务价值与区域高质量发展耦合协调研究——以山东省德州市大屯水库为例[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(4): 41-54.
[10]	许纪校, 陆倩倩. 沉淀性冗余资源对我国制造业企业技术创新绩效的影响研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(4): 116-126.
[11]	王济干, 包婷婷, 邢贞成. 基于包容性全要素生产率的长三角经济高质量发展测度研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(3): 82-91.
[12]	张倩, 梅亚丽, 王奎. 环境保护税、技术创新与制造业企业绩效——有调节的中介效应[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(3): 107-120.
[13]	姜翔程, 刘佳慧. 黄河流域水资源利用效率与经济高质量发展的脱钩分析[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(2): 65-75.
[14]	田泽, 肖玲颖, 梁伟, 等. 黄河流域工业绿色低碳转型与经济高质量发展耦合协调研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(1): 14-26.
[15]	许纪校, 王尧, 唐勇军. 红线控制下高质量水资源优化配置——以南京市为例[J]. 资源与产业, 2022, 24(5): 70-80.