关键词: 水资源利用, 经济增长； VAR模型； 河北省

Abstract: Hebei province lacks water resource, about 1/11 of water resource per capita in China, resulting in a rising conflict between water shortage and economic growth. This paper, based on VAR model and Hebei's gross water use, industrial waste use, agricultural water use, GDP, agricultural added values and industrial added values during 2000-2015, uses stability test, co-integration test, Grander causality, pulse response and variance decomposition to analyze the interaction between water resource use and economic growth in Hebei province, with results showing a co\|integration between economic growth and gross water use, agricultural water use and industrial water use, and a one-way Granger causality between water resource use and economic growth. The cumulative pulse response of economic growth to gross water use is negative, and vise verse, that of agricultural added value to agricultural water use is positive, but agricultural water use to agricultural added value negative, both industrial added value to industrial water use and industrial water use to industrial added value negative. Except a higher contribution in agricultural added value to agricultural water use and industrial water use to industrial added value, economic growth has a less contribution to water use.  

Key words: water resource use, economic growth, VAR model, Hebei province