中美博弈视角下中国稀土资源供应风险研究

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20221014.001

资源与产业 ›› 2022, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (5): 1-9.DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20221014.001

• 非主题来稿选登 • 下一篇

中美博弈视角下中国稀土资源供应风险研究

闻少博¹，陈志华²，刘雪勇³

(1.中国自然资源经济研究院，北京 101149；2.北京师范大学珠海校区，广东珠海 519087；3.首都经济贸易大学管理工程学院，北京 100070)

收稿日期:2021-10-18 修回日期:2021-12-10 出版日期:2022-10-20 发布日期:2022-12-24
通讯作者: 陈志华，博士，主要从事能源经济与环境政策研究。E-mail：zhihuachen@bnu.edu.cn
作者简介:闻少博，博士、助理研究员，主要从事矿产资源经济与政策研究。E-mail：artfin@foxmail.com
基金资助:
自然资源部部门预算项目（121102000000180047）。

CHINA'S REE SUPPLY RISKS VIEWING FROM CHINA-AMERICA'S COMPETITION

WEN Shaobo¹, CHEN Zhihua², LIU Xueyong³

(1.Chinese Academy of Natural Resources Economics, Beijing 101149, China; 2. Beijing Normal University at Zhuhai, Zhuhai Campus, Zhuhai 519087, China; 3.School of Management and Engineering, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China)

Received:2021-10-18 Revised:2021-12-10 Online:2022-10-20 Published:2022-12-24

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 稀土是先进装备制造业、新能源、新兴产业和众多武器系统等不可或缺的原材料。中美两国在稀土生产和加工方面存在非对称的依赖关系。本文利用复杂网络识别中美两国在国际稀土市场中竞合关系的演化过程，并构建指标从稀土资源的市场集中度，生产国的供应能力和意愿三个方面对未来中国可能面临的稀土供应风险进行识别和量化，以期在中美资源博弈中，为中国制定应对措施提供参考。结果表明，中美两国在国际稀土市场的竞合关系具有时变特征，当中国从外部获取资源维持市场优势的时候，将面临潜在的供应风险。从市场集中度来看，中国对稀土市场的影响力不断下降；从供应能力来看，中国的前两大供应国的供应能力偏弱；从供应意愿来看，中国的主要稀土贸易伙伴具有较大的断供可能。

关键词: 稀土, 供应风险, 复杂网络, 对外依存度, 潜在风险

Abstract: REEs are indispensable materials for advanced manufacturing, new energy, new industries, and the weapon industry. China has an asymmetric dependence with America on REE mining and processing. This paper uses complicated network to recognize the evolutional process of China-America's Competition-Cooperation in the global REE markets, and establishes an index system to quantitatively identify China's confronting REE supply risks from REEs market concentration, producers' supply capacity and willingness, attempting to provide reference for China to make REE policies amid competition with America. China has a changing competition with America in the global REE markets, facing potential supply risks when China maintain REE market advantages relying on external sourcing. Viewing for market concentration, China has a declining REE market influencing power. China's top 2 REE suppliers are weak in supplying, and it is possible that China's major REE partners to interrupt supplying REE resources.

Key words: REE, supply risks, complicated network, external dependence, potential risks

中图分类号:

F205

闻少博, 陈志华, 刘雪勇. 中美博弈视角下中国稀土资源供应风险研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2022, 24(5): 1-9.

WEN Shaobo, CHEN Zhihua, LIU Xueyong. CHINA'S REE SUPPLY RISKS VIEWING FROM CHINA-AMERICA'S COMPETITION[J]. Resources & Industries, 2022, 24(5): 1-9.

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中美博弈视角下中国稀土资源供应风险研究

CHINA'S REE SUPPLY RISKS VIEWING FROM CHINA-AMERICA'S COMPETITION

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