未来十年新业态下铝资源需求分析

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20230913.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近年来，随着新能源汽车、光伏等低碳新兴行业的高速发展，铝资源需求不断增长，但原铝生产耗能高、碳排放量大，在世界应对气候变化、“双碳”等新业态下，铝行业发展面临新的挑战。本文运用系统动力仿真模型，结合部门预测法，预测未来十年我国铝资源的生产消费情况，并从“铝土矿—氧化铝—原铝—铝产品—再生铝”全生命周期视角，定量评估正常情境、政策情境和理想情境3种情境下铝产业的减碳潜力，研判未来原铝和再生铝的需求供应趋势。研究结果表明：1)未来十年新业态下，铝需求量仍持续呈快速增长态势，新能源汽车的高速发展是拉动铝消费量增长的主要因素，交通运输部门将超越建筑业成为铝消费量的第一大领域。2)铝产业减碳的最佳路径为大力发展再生铝资源，其次为优化电解铝用电结构。面对严峻多变的国际经济形势，必须开发出更节能环保型的初级和再生冶炼技术和方法，全面提高铝资源的开发利用和循环回收水平，加快建立高效铝资源回收体系，降低铝资源供应的不确定性，从而提高我国铝资源保障能力，推动我国铝产业实现高质量发展。

关键词: 需求分析, 原铝, 再生铝, 火电铝, 系统动力学模型, 情境分析

Abstract:

Rapid growth of new low carbon industries like of new electric vehicles and photovoltaic recently leads to a surging demand for aluminum resource, but production of primary aluminum has high energy consumption and large carbon emission, challenging the global climate changes and “dual carbon” goal. This paper uses system dynamics simulation model to forecast China ‘s aluminum resource production/consumption in next decade, and quantitatively evaluates its carbon emission potential under normal, policy and ideal scenarios from a perspective of entire life circle “bauxite-aluminum oxide-primary aluminum-aluminum products-recycling aluminum”, and forecasts the future supply of primary and recycling aluminum. In next decade, aluminum demand will be still fast rising, mainly contributed by the growing new energy vehicles. Transportation will become the largest aluminum consuming sector over construction sector. The premium approach to aluminum carbon reduction is to develop recycling aluminum resource, then to optimize electricity-using structure in electrolytic aluminum.To face a challenging global economic situation, this paper presents suggestions on developing power-saving-environment-protecting primary and recycling metallurgical technologies and methods, increasing development/use and recycling levels of aluminum resource, constructing an effective aluminum resource recycling system, decreasing uncertainty in aluminum resource supply so as to secure China ‘s aluminum resource guaranteeing capacity and to boost a quality development of China ‘s aluminum industry.

Key words:

demand analysis, primary aluminum; recycling aluminum, thermal-power aluminum, system dynamics model, scenario analysis

中图分类号:

F062.1

崔博京, 陈其慎, 王琨, 等.

未来十年新业态下铝资源需求分析 [J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(6): 31-40.

CUI Bojing, CHEN Qishen, WANG Kun, et al.

ALUMINUM RESOURCE DEMAND IN NEXT DECADE UNDER NEW INDUSTRIAL SITUATION [J]. Resources & Industries, 2023, 25(6): 31-40.

参考文献

安泰科, 2021. 2020年有色金属市场发展报告[R]. 北京: 北京安泰科信息股份有限公司.

安泰科, 2022. 2021年有色金属市场发展报告[R]. 北京: 北京安泰科信息股份有限公司.

陈其慎, 于汶加, 张艳飞, 等, 2016. 点石: 未来20年全球矿产资源产业发展研究[M]. 北京: 科学出版社.

陈其慎, 王高尚, 王安建, 2010. 铜、铝需求“S”形规律的三个转变点剖析[J]. 地球学报, 31(5): 659-665. 〔CHEN Q S, WANG G S, WANG A J, 2010.An analysis of the three turning points in the “S-shape” rule of copper and aluminum demand[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica, 31(5): 659-665.〕

窦宏秀, 王震, 2021.加快电解铝行业碳达峰助力铝产业绿色低碳发展[J].轻金属(7): 1-3.〔DOU H X, WANG Z, 2021.Speed up peaking carbon dioxide emissions of aluminum industry facilitate the green and low-carbon development of aluminum industry[J].Light Metals(7): 1-3.〕

杜焱, 胡鑫杨, 2022.我国2030年实现碳达峰路径研究: 基于经济、能源、碳排放系统的SD模型[J].资源与产业, 24(5): 19-28.〔DU Y, HU X Y, 2022.An approach China ‘s 2030 carbon peak based on SD model on economy, energy and carbon emissions system[J].Resources ＆ Industries, 24(5): 19-28.〕

高兰, 王登红, 熊晓云, 等, 2015.中国铝土矿资源特征及潜力分析[J].中国地质, 42(4): 853-863.〔GAO L, WANG D H, XIONG X Y, et al, 2015.Minerogenetic characteristics and resource potential analysis of bauxite in China[J].Geology in China, 42(4): 853-863.〕

简晓彬, 陈伟博, 赵洁, 2021.欠发达地区工业发展的碳排放效应、影响因素及减排潜力: 以苏北为例[J].资源与产业, 23(1): 35-45.〔JIAN X B, CHEN W B, ZHAO J, 2021.Carbon emission effect, factors and emission reduction potential of industrial development in underdeveloped regions: a case study on northern Jiangsu province[J]．Resources & Industries, 23(1): 35-45．〕

李欢, 陈建宏, 杨珊, 等, 2019.我国有色金属消费与经济增速的关系及预测的实证分析: 以铝为例[J].矿冶工程, 39(5): 137-143.〔LI H, CHEN J H, YANG S, et al, 2019.An empirical analysis of relationship between nonferrous metals consumption and economic growth and forecast of nonferrous metals consumption in China: with aluminum as an example[J].Mining and Metallurgical Engineering, 39(5): 137-143.〕

林毅夫, 2021.百年未有之大变局下的中国新发展格局与未来经济发展的展望[J].北京大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 58(5): 32-40.〔LIN Y F, 2021.China ‘s new development paradigm and prospect of future economic development in the great change that has been unseen over the last one hundred years[J].Journal of Peking University (Philosophy and Social Sciences), 58(5): 32-40.〕

刘风琴, 邱定蕃, 顾松青, 等, 2022.我国铝冶炼工业的竞争力分析及发展趋势[J].工程科学学报, 44(4): 561-572.〔LIU F Q, QIU D F, GU S Q, et al, 2022.Analysis of competitiveness of China ‘s aluminum industry in the world and its development trend[J].Chinese Journal of Engineering, 44(4): 561-572.〕

刘少丽, 梁亚楠, 2019.基于产业链视角的中国铝资源贸易现状分析[J].轻金属(7): 1-7.〔LIU S L, LIANG Y N, 2019.Analysis on current situation of China ‘s aluminum resources trade from the perspective of industrial chain[J].Light Metals(7): 1-7.〕

陆佳勤, 甘信华, 2022.江苏省工业碳排放时空分异及减排策略[J].资源与产业, 24(4): 150-156.〔LU J Q, GAN X H, 2022.Temporal-spatial differentiation and emission reduction strategy of Jiangsu ‘s industrial carbon emission[J].Resources & Industries, 24(4): 150-156.〕

麦文隽, 2022.系统动力学中的系统思想及其在“碳中和”愿景目标中的应用研究: 以交通行业减碳为例[J].系统科学学报, 30(1): 17-22.〔MAI W J, 2022.Research on system thinking of system dynamics and it ‘s application in carbon neutrality goal: taking the carbon-reduction in the transportation industry an example[J].Chinese Journal of Systems Science, 30(1): 17-22.〕

王威, 吴晶晶, 葛亚平, 等, 2022.双碳背景下碳排放核算法及策略分析: 以铜铝行业为例[J].有色金属(冶炼部分)(4): 1-11.〔WANG W, WU J J, GE Y P, et al, 2022.Carbon emission accounting method and strategy analysis under the background of double carbon: taking copper and aluminum industry as an example[J].Nonferrous Metals (Extractive Metallurgy)(4): 1-11.〕

熊嘉阳, 沈志云, 2021.中国高速铁路的崛起和今后的发展[J].交通运输工程学报, 21(5): 6-29.〔XIONG J Y, SHEN Z Y, 2021.Rise and future development of Chinese high-speed railway[J].Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 21(5): 6-29.〕

杨超, 冯乃祥, 2022.工业二次铝灰资源化回收利用现状[J].现代化工, 42(6): 73-77.〔YANG C, FENG N X, 2022.Current situation of recycling industrial secondary aluminum dross[J].Modern Chemical Industry, 42(6): 73-77.〕

袁纬芳, 郑明贵, 2014.基于BP神经网络的我国铝矿资源需求情景分析[J].资源与产业, 16(1): 132-137.〔YUAN W F, ZHENG M G, 2014.Scenario analysis on China ‘s bauxite resource demand based on BP neural network[J].Resources & Industries, 16(1): 132-137.〕

赵黎明, 2022.碳中和背景下X铝业集团抵御铝价大幅波动案例分析[D].保定: 河北金融学院.〔ZHAO L M, 2022.Case analysis of X aluminum group ‘s resistance to large fluctuations of aluminum price under the background of carbon neutrality[D].Baoding: Hebei Finance University〕

DAI M, WANG P, CHEN W Q, et al, 2019.Scenario analysis of China ‘s aluminum cycle reveals the coming scrap age and the end of primary aluminum boom[J].Journal of Cleaner Production, 226: 793-804.

EAA, 2020.European aluminum vision 2050[R].Brussels: European Aluminium.

ELSHKAKI A, LEI S, CHEN W Q, 2020.Material-energy-water nexus: modelling the long term implications of aluminium demand and supply on global climate change up to 2050[J].Environmental Research, 181: 108964.

GUO Y Q, ZHU W S, YANG Y, et al, 2019.Carbon reduction potential based on life cycle assessment of China ‘s aluminium[J].Journal of Cleaner Production, 239: 118004.

HAO H, GENG Y, HANG W, 2016.GHG emissions from primary aluminum production in China: regional disparity and policy implications[J].Applied Energy, 166: 264-272.

IAI, 2020.Aluminium recycling[R].London: International Aluminium Institute.

IAI, 2021a.Aluminium sector greenhouse gas pathways to 2050[R].London: International Aluminium Institute.

IAI, 2021b.Good practice guidance for calculation of primary aluminium and precursor product carbon footprints[R].London: International Aluminium Institute.

IBRD, 2022.Global economic prospect[R].Washington: The Word Bank Group.

IEA, 2021.IAI GHG pathways position paper[R].Paris: International Energy Agency.

KERMELI K, TER WEER P, CRIJNS-GRAUS W, et al, 2015.Energy efficiency improvement and GHG abatement in the global production of primary aluminium[J].Energy Efficiency, 8(4): 629-666.

LI Q, ZHANG W J, LI H Q, et al, 2017.CO2 emission trends of China ‘s primary aluminum industry: a scenario analysis using system dynamics model[J].Energy Policy, 105: 225-235.

LI S P, ZHANG T A, NIU L P, et al, 2021.Analysis of the development scenarios and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China ‘s aluminum industry till 2030[J].Journal of Cleaner Production, 290: 125859.

LIU S L, LI X, WANG M X, 2016b.Analysis of aluminum resource supply structure and guarantee degree in China based on sustainable perspective[J].Sustainability, 8(12): 1335.

LIU Z, GENG Y, ADAMS M, et al, 2016a.Uncovering driving forces on greenhouse gas emissions in China ‘ aluminum industry from the perspective of life cycle analysis[J].Applied Energy, 166: 253-263.

MAUNG K N, YOSHIDA T, LIU G, et al, 2017.Assessment of secondary aluminum reserves of nations[J].Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 126: 34-41.

PENG T D, OU X M, YAN X Y, et al, 2019.Life-cycle analysis of energy consumption and GHG emissions of aluminium production in China[J].Energy Procedia, 158: 3937-3943.

TIAN S S, DI Y Z, DAI M, et al, 2022.Comprehensive assessment of energy conservation and CO2 emission reduction in future aluminum supply chain[J].Applied Energy, 305: 117796.

UNITED NATIONS, 2022.World population prospects 2022[R].New York: Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.

VAN DEN EYNDE S, BRACQUENÉ E, DIAZ-ROMERO D, et al, 2022.Forecasting global aluminium flows to demonstrate the need for improved sorting and recycling methods[J].Waste Management, 137: 231-240.

YUE Q, WANG H M, GAO C K, et al, 2015.Resources saving and emissions reduction of the aluminum industry in China[J].Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 104: 68-75.

ZHANG W J, LI H Q, CHEN B, et al, 2015. CO2 emission and mitigation potential estimations of China ‘s primary aluminum industry[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 103: 863-872.

[1]	李可柏, 丁志蕾. 江苏省工业用水供需系统动力学模型与工业用水生产要素投入仿真研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(4): 127-138.
[2]	高心雨, 董会和, 高禄年, 等. 基于SD模型的长春市城市经济-社会-土地利用系统动态模拟研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2022, 24(4): 90-102.
[3]	张炜. 世界铬矿资源需求分析及预测[J]. 资源与产业, 2016, 18(4): 87-91.
[4]	娄伟, 李萌. 基于情境分析的我国可再生能源战略研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2010, 12(5): 26-32.