欧佩克战略政策的影响因素分析

资源与产业 ›› 2010, Vol. 12 ›› Issue (3): 43-47.

欧佩克战略政策的影响因素分析

何鸿¹，张寿庭¹，张照志²，张涛¹

（1中国地质大学地质过程与矿产资源国家重点实验室，北京 100083；
2中国国土资源经济研究院，北京 101149）

收稿日期:2010-02-24 修回日期:2010-04-16 出版日期:2010-06-20 发布日期:2010-06-20
作者简介:何鸿（1983— ），男, 博士生,主要从事能源经济和矿业经济研究。E-mail：hehong1983@126.com

FACTORS AFFECTING OPEC'S STRATEGIC POLICIES

HE Hong ¹, ZHANG Shou-ting ¹, ZHANG Zhao-zhi ², ZHANG Tao ¹

(1. State Key Laboratory of Geological Processes and Mineral Resources, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China;
2. China Academy of Land and Resource Economics, Beijing 101149, China)

Received:2010-02-24 Revised:2010-04-16 Online:2010-06-20 Published:2010-06-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

欧佩克在石油市场中的地位举足轻重，其战略政策对石油价格影响深远，本文分析了石油需求、替代能源价格水平、非欧佩克国家石油生产能力、石油消费国能源政策与油价波动承受能力、欧佩克成员国情况、国际政治因素、美元汇率和通货膨胀7个因素对欧佩克战略政策的影响，认为当前非欧佩克不具备挑战欧佩克的竞争力，面对高油价增产乏力，加之替代能源技术没有重大突破，中印等发展中国家石油需求的增加等因素均有利于欧佩克执行高油价政策，世界经济复苏后油价将处于高位。

关键词: 欧佩克, 战略政策, 石油市场

Abstract:

Playing an important role in global petroleum market, OPEC has a great influence on petroleum price by its strategic policies, which are affected by seven factors, including petroleum demand, energy substitute price, oil production in non-OPEC, energy policies and capability to price fluctuation in oil consumption nations, OPEC'member, international politics, US dollar exchange rate and inflation. This paper, based on an analysis on these seven factors, thinks OPEC can not be challenged by non-OPEC. Due to a limit to increase oil production with a high price, and no milestone in energy substitute technology, the developing countries such China and India will have to be facing OPEC's high oil price policies. The oil price after world's economic recovery will still be high.

Key words: OPEC, strategic policies, petroleum market

中图分类号:

F407.22

何鸿, 张寿庭, 张照志, 张涛. 欧佩克战略政策的影响因素分析[J]. 资源与产业, 2010, 12(3): 43-47.

HE Hong, ZHANG Shou-ting, ZHANG Zhao-zhi, ZHANG Tao. FACTORS AFFECTING OPEC'S STRATEGIC POLICIES[J]. Resources & Industries, 2010, 12(3): 43-47.

[1]	何鸿, 张寿庭. 欧佩克的产量行为研究：基于油价、储采比及剩余产能的分析[J]. 资源与产业, 2011, 13(5): 16-22.
[2]	张照志, 王安建. 欧佩克卡特尔特征研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2010, 12(6): 28-32.