关键词: 致密油, 原油价格, 地缘政治, 剩余产能

Abstract: This paper，based on an introduction to the development situation of tight oil globally，analyzes its future influence on international oil price. Its development can restrain oil price from rising，but not falling largely. The reasons include that its production and cost does not support the falling price. In an open market，development of tight oil will hold oil price，from external consumption market and internal production，to its profitable balanced price. OPEC’s surplus production capacity has a competition with tight oil production，which does not support a big jump of international oil price.

Key words: tight oil, crude oil price, geopolitics, surplus production capacity