清洁能源关键矿产供需预测及保供措施研究——以锂、钴、镍为例

资源与产业

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清洁能源关键矿产供需预测及保供措施研究——以锂、钴、镍为例

易杏花，王笑笑，成金华，胡松琴

（中国地质大学经济管理学院，湖北武汉，430074）

收稿日期:2024-03-28 修回日期:2024-04-11 接受日期:2024-08-14
通讯作者: 王笑笑，硕士，主要从事矿产资源供需研究。E-mail: wxx19982022@163.com
作者简介:第一作者简介：易杏花，博士、副教授，主要从事低碳经济研究。E-mail: yxh73@cug.edu.cn 通信作者简介：王笑笑，硕士，主要从事矿产资源供需研究。E-mail: wxx19982022@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金重大项目课题“新时代战略性关键矿产资源供给安全与管理政策研究”（71991482）

Study on the forecast of supply and demand of clean energy critical minerals and measures to maintain supply ——Lithium, Cobalt and Nickel as an Example

Yi Xinghua, Wang Xiaoxiao, Cheng Jinhua, Hu Songqin

（School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China）

Received:2024-03-28 Revised:2024-04-11 Accepted:2024-08-14

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在全球碳中和背景下，清洁能源转型与数字信息科技革命不断向纵深挺进，身处地缘政治经济竞争前沿领域的中国清洁能源关键矿产资源面临较大的供应风险。本文以锂、钴、镍矿为代表，采用灰色预测模型、ARIMA模型以及各单项模型基于熵值法的组合模型，对2023—2030年我国清洁能源关键矿产资源市场供求发展趋势以及2030年锂、钴、镍矿行业市场供求量进行全面、系统的预测。研究发现：1）锂、钴、镍矿行业市场需求量和供给量预测值均以基于熵值法的组合预测模型为准；2）2023—2030年我国锂矿行业市场将迎来大幅供给过剩；3）钴、镍矿行业市场供求缺口将逐年加大；4）2030年锂、钴、镍矿行业市场需求量综合预测值分别为153.74万t、25.34万t、247.82万t，锂、钴、镍矿行业市场供给量综合预测值分别为183.56万t、23.36万t、80.97万t。预测结果带来的政策启示包括：1）加强勘查顶层规划与开发投入力度；2）充分利用境外矿产资源；3）注重关键矿产资源循环利用与伴生矿利用；4）加大金融政策支持力度，5）保障海外权益资源及时转化为实际产能。研究结果对保障清洁能源关键矿产供应安全，探索提升中国关键矿产供给保障水平的有效路径有重要参考价值。

关键词: 清洁能源, 关键矿产, 供需预测, ARIMA-GM-熵值法组合模型

Abstract:

Under the background of global carbon neutrality, the clean energy transformation and digital information technology is developing in both scope and depth. Critical mineral resources, in the forefront of geopolitical and economic competition for clean energy, will face significant supply risks. This article takes lithium, cobalt, and nickel mines as representatives of China's critical mineral resources for clean energy, predict the market supply and demand trends of them in China from 2023 to 2030, as well as the quantity supplied and demanded in 2030. In order to make a comprehensive and systematical evaluation, the grey forecasting model, ARIMA model, and a combined model based on entropy method for individual models as well are applied. The positive study reveals that the lithium mine industry in China is expected to experience relatively substantial oversupply from 2023 to 2030. On the other hand, the supply-demand gap in the cobalt and nickel mine industries will enlarge year by year. The comprehensive predicted values for the market demand in 2030 are 1.5374 million tons for lithium, 0.2534 million tons for cobalt, and 2.4782 million tons for nickel. In addition, for market supply in 2030 are 1.8356 million tons for lithium, 0.2336 million tons for cobalt, and 0.8097 million tons for nickel. The policy implications brought by the predicted results include: strengthening the top-level planning and investment in exploration; fully utilizing overseas mineral resources; focusing on the recycling of key mineral resources and the utilization of associated minerals; increasing financial policy support to ensure timely conversion of overseas equity resources into actual production capacity, which are expected to have significant reference value for ensuring the supply security of critical mineral resources in the clean energy industry and exploring effective paths to enhance China's critical mineral supply security level.

Key words: Clean Energy, Critical Minerals, Supply and Demand Forecasting, ARIMA-Grey Model-Entropy Method Combined Model

易杏花, 王笑笑, 成金华, 胡松琴.

清洁能源关键矿产供需预测及保供措施研究——以锂、钴、镍为例 [J]. 资源与产业.

Yi Xinghua, Wang Xiaoxiao, Cheng Jinhua, Hu Songqin.

Study on the forecast of supply and demand of clean energy critical minerals and measures to maintain supply ——Lithium, Cobalt and Nickel as an Example[J]. Resources & Industries.

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