资源与产业 ›› 2017, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (1): 55-65.DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.2017.01.014

• 资源评价 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于PSR模型的中国稀土安全评价

颉茂华,杨彩霞   

  1. (内蒙古大学 经济管理学院,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010021)
  • 收稿日期:2016-11-08 修回日期:2016-12-23 出版日期:2017-02-20 发布日期:2017-02-26
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(71463039;71262009)

SECURITY ASSESSMENT OF CHINA’S REE RESOURCES BASED ON PSR MODEL

XIE Mao-hua, YANG Cai-xia   

  1. (School of Economics and Management, Inner Mongolia University, Huhhot 010021, China)
  • Received:2016-11-08 Revised:2016-12-23 Online:2017-02-20 Published:2017-02-26

摘要: 建立稀土的PSR安全评价模型,以因果分析为逻辑切入点,对稀土安全的压力、状态和响应3项指 标内的各个相关因素进行分析,以期对我国稀土资源的安全性进行分析评价。采用灰色预测模型GM(1.1), 通过分析进口、出口、产量和消费量等压力指标,对未来稀土资源的趋势做出预测;然后通过计算储量、储采比与稀缺程度,对我国稀土资源的状态进行分析与评价;最后,对我国稀土资源储备、综合利用和保护状况进行分析。结果表明,我国稀土储量丰富,稀土资源的稀缺性大于1,并且未来几年中不仅能够满足自身需要,而且可以大量出口。提出应从源头控制开采形式与规模,制定完善的出口政策,并提高我国稀土产品生产的技术水平,落实稀土资源开发与保护政策。

关键词: 稀土, PSR模型, 供需预测, 稀缺性

Abstract: This paper establishes a RRE security assessment model which is used to analyze its pressure, status and response, aiming at acquiring the security assessment of China’s REE resources. Gray forecast model GM (1.1) is applied to predict the REE trend based on its import, export, production and consumption. REE status is studied based on its reserve, reserve/mining ratio and scarcity. This paper discusses the REE’s reserve, comprehensive use and protection. China is rich in REE reserve with scarcity over 1. REE can not only meet domestic needs, but also be exported in large quantities. This paper presents suggestions in managing mining, making export policies, promoting China’s REE production technology and carrying out REE development and protection policy.

Key words: REE, PSR model, supply and demand prediction, scarcity

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