资源与产业 ›› 2021, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (6): 1-12.DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20210909.002

• 非主题来稿选登 •    下一篇

中国稀土产业政策的最优化和数值模拟

谢 畅   

  1. (清华大学 经济管理学院,北京 100084)
  • 收稿日期:2021-01-05 修回日期:2021-03-02 出版日期:2021-12-20 发布日期:2021-12-21
  • 作者简介:谢畅,博士生,主要从事国际贸易和中国经济问题研究。
  • 基金资助:
    辽宁省社会科学规划基金重点项目(L17AJY001)

OPTIMIZATION AND NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF CHINA'S RARE EARTH INDUSTRY POLICIES

XIE Chang   

  1. (School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)
  • Received:2021-01-05 Revised:2021-03-02 Online:2021-12-20 Published:2021-12-21
  • About author:E-mail: xiec16@foxmail.com

摘要: 对稀土矿产资源最优开采和征税模式的研究对于提高资源配置效率,解决环境污染问题,走出贫困化增长困境具有重要意义。针对稀土行业的特点,论文基于Hotelling模型提供了一个分析中国稀土市场的框架,建立了最优开采量和稀土价格的数理模型,说明了稀土净价格变化、环境污染对于最优产量和价格路径的影响。利用现有的市场数据,论文对未来的稀土供应量和价格进行了数值计算,并对各种税制的效率和问题进行了比较。研究表明:1)在中国资源储量固定的条件下,假设稀土新的市场需求稳步增长,中国稀土的最优产量长期维持在13万t/a,最优现期价格在19万元/t,并随时间稳步上升。目前国内生产配额和最优产量比较接近,但是价格明显低于最优价格。2)不考虑新的市场需求,仅考虑环境治理成本,稀土的最优产量长期维持在22万t/a,环境治理成本逐渐上升至最高100亿元/a之后逐渐下降。稀土生产的污染程度越高,环境的自我净化能力越弱,最优产量相应降低,资源耗尽的时间相对延长。

关键词: 稀土产业, 最优开采路径, 外部性, 环境税, 数值模拟

Abstract: Research on the optimal mining and taxation types of rare earth elements is of great significance to improve the efficiency of resource allocation, reduce environmental pollution in the process of mining, and solve the plight of immiserizing growth. This paper, based on Hotelling model, provides a framework for China's rare earth market and establishes a numerical simulation of the best time profiles of the quantity supplied and the prices in illustrating the impacts of rare earth price changes and environmental pollution on the optimized mining output and price path. Market data is used to simulate the future rare earth supply and prices and to compare efficiencies of different taxation systems. Given a fixed China's rare earth resource and a stably growing demand, the optimized mining tonnages is set to 130 000 t/a and 190 000 RBM per ton at future price. China's quota production is close to the optimized tonnages, but the price largely falls behind. The optimized tonnage is set to 220 000 t/a if the environmental governance is the only factor to consider, rather than the new market demand, cost in environmental governance will climb to 10 billion RMB per year and declines. The higher environmental pollution severity by rare earth mining and production, the longer to self-recover, so the optimized tonnages need to be reduced to extend serving life of rare earth resource.

Key words: rare earth industry, optical mining path, externality, environmental tax, numerical simulation

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