基于面板数据模型的我国能源消费特征研究

资源与产业 ›› 2015, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (4): 75-81.

基于面板数据模型的我国能源消费特征研究

吴瑾

北京理工大学管理与经济学院，北京 100081

收稿日期:2015-04-07 修回日期:2015-05-05 出版日期:2015-08-20 发布日期:2015-08-20
通讯作者: 吴瑾(E-mail: 591454200@qq.com)
作者简介:吴瑾(E-mail: 591454200@qq.com)
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（71273026）

CHINA`S ENERGY CONSUMPTION CHARACTERISTICS BASED ON PANEL MODEL

WU Jin

School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China

Received:2015-04-07 Revised:2015-05-05 Online:2015-08-20 Published:2015-08-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 运用系统聚类与K-均值聚类相结合的分析方法对全国31个省市自治区进行基于环境污染数据的集群分类。然后采用面板模型中的变系数模型与变截距模型，以24个省份2006—2011年的煤炭、焦炭、原油、燃料油、汽油、煤油、柴油和天然气消费量作为原始数据，分析不同组别各类能源的消费平均水平和消费倾向。研究表明，虽然污染程度变化滞后于能源消费倾向变化，但能源消费倾向变化可能会引起污染程度变化；能源消费倾向与环境污染程度呈负相关；地区能源消费特征与其产业结构、资源丰富程度有关，经济发展水平高、产业结构以集约型为主的地区能源消费强度和能源消费倾向比较低，反之则较高。最后，基于能源消费特征提出了一些协同节能环保的政策建议。

关键词: 能源消费特征, 环境污染, 聚类分析, 面板模型

Abstract: This paper classifies China`s 31 provinces in terms of their environmental pollution by means of system clustering and K-mean clustering, and applies variable coefficient model and variable intercept model of panel model to analyze the average energy consumption level and trend based on 24 provinces`coal, coking coal, crude oil, fuel oil, gasoline, kerosene, diesel and gas consumption data of 2006—2011. Results show pollution extent changes after energy consumption trend, but the latter can change the former. Energy consumption trend is negatively related to environmental pollution extent. Regional energy consumption characteristics are connected with its industrial structure and resources abundance. Energy consumption intensity and trend display low in the region with a higher economic level and an intensive industrial structure. Suggestions are presented on environmental protection policies based on energy consumption characteristics.

Key words: energy consumption characteristics, environmental pollution, clustering analysis, panel model

中图分类号:

F206

吴瑾. 基于面板数据模型的我国能源消费特征研究 [J]. 资源与产业, 2015, 17(4): 75-81.

WU Jin. CHINA`S ENERGY CONSUMPTION CHARACTERISTICS BASED ON PANEL MODEL[J]. Resources & Industries, 2015, 17(4): 75-81.

参考文献

[1]张军, 高远, 傅勇, 等. 中国为什么拥有了良好的基础设施?
[J]. 经济研究, 2007（3）: 4-19
[2]Juan A D, Vicent A, Emilio P. International inequality in energy intensity levels and the role of production composition and energy efficiency: an analysis of OECD countries
[J]. Ecological Economics, 2010, 69(12): 2468-2474
[3]Seale J L, Solano A A. The changing demand for energy in rich and poor countries over 25 years
[J]. Energy Economics, 2012, 34（6）: 1834-1844
[4]张欢, 成金华. 中国城市化进程对能源需求的动态冲击效应
[J]. 管理学报, 2011, 8(7): 1060-1066
[5]Bozoklu S, Yilanci V. Energy consumption and economic growth for selected OECD countries: further evidence from the Granger causality test in the frequency domain
[J]. Energy Policy, 2013, 63(12): 877-881
[6]Herrerias M J, Joyeux R, Girardin E. Short and longrun causality between energy consumption and economic growth: evidence across regions in China
[J]. Applied Energy, 2013, 112(12): 1483-1492
[7]黄梅. 经济增长、外商直接投资与环境污染关系研究: 基于2003—2012年省级面板实证分析
[J]. 资源与产业, 2015, 17（1）: 92-97
[8]Nicholas A, Payne J S. Renewable energy consumption〖JP〗 and economic growth: evidence from a panel of OECD countries
[J]. Energy Policy, 2010, 38(1): 656-660
[9]Marques A C, Fuinhas J A, Pires Manso J R. Motivations driving renewable energy in European countries: a panel data approach
[J]. Energy Policy, 2010, 38(11): 6877-6885
[10]王双英, 王群伟, 陈洪涛. 国际石油价格波动对我国石油产业盈利的分化研究
[J]. 资源与产业, 2014, 16(3): 12-16
[11]杨威, 王成金, 金凤君, 等. 中国工业能源消费强度的影响因素研究: 基于省域工业数据的实证分析
[J]. 自然资源学报, 2013, 28(1): 81-91
[12]田立新, 刘晶. 能源强度研究中能源价格影响的实证分析
[J]. 自然资源学报, 2010, 25(9): 1519-1524
[13]〖JP+2〗Kühn M, Juhlin C, Held H, et al. Energy, resources〖JP〗 & the environment: some future challenges
[J]. Energy Procedia, 2013, 40: 1-5
[14]Manley D K, Hines V A, Jordan M W, et al. A survey of energy policy priorities in the United States: energy supply security, economics, and the environment
[J]. Energy Policy, 2013, 60(9): 687-696
[15]柯新利, 刘曼, 邓祥征. 湖泊营养物生态分区: 中国东北的分区试验
[J]. 自然资源学报, 2014, 29(5): 789-800
[16]Cheng Hsiao. Analysis of panel data
[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003 
[17]肖士恩, 雷家骕. 中国环境污染损失测算及成因探析
[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2011, 21(12): 70-74
[18]Wang Zhaohua, Zeng Hualin, Wei Yiming, et al. Regional total factor energy efficiency: an empirical analysis of industrial sector in China
[J]. Applied Energy, 2012, 97(9): 115-123