节能减排约束下的行业经济增长路径研究

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20230717.003

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了减少全球气候变暖给世界生态环境带来的负面影响，我国政府制定实施了“力争2030年前实现碳达峰，2060年前实现碳中和”的“双碳”战略。在此时代背景之下，探究通过何种路径即能够满足节能减排的要求，又能够满足经济增长的需要，就成为了我国学术界亟待解决的研究课题之一。本文以节能减排与经济增长的协调发展为目标，围绕着经济增长、能源消耗、二氧化碳排放3个关键点，通过构建行业经济增长多目标优化模型，以及设计的3种不同能源消耗强度下的发展情景，运用非支配排序遗传算法来研究降低行业能源消耗强度对我国行业经济增长及其减少全国二氧化碳排放所产生的影响作用。研究结果表明:1)2021—2030年在基准情景下，其他行业的GDP年均增长率最高，交通运输及仓储和邮政业次之。由此可见，其他行业、交通运输及仓储和邮政业在未来的经济增长潜力会相对更大。2021—2030年在3种情景下我国GDP累计总量分别为1 263.99万亿元、1 264.18万亿元、1 264.28万亿元，模拟结果表明通过降低能耗强度不但可以减少了全国的二氧化碳排放，而且还可以促进我国GDP的增长。2)2021—2030年在低碳情景下的我国能源消耗总量比在基准情景下的降低了20%左右，在强化低碳情景下的我国能源消耗总量比在基准情景下的降低了40%左右，2种低碳情景下的全国能源消耗总量下降幅度与行业能耗强度下降幅度基本一致。3)2021—2030年在3种情景下的我国碳强度变化一直呈下降趋势， 2030年在3种情景下的我国碳强度值分别为0.834t/万元、0.680t/万元、0.530t/万元，相较于2005年的我国碳强度值，下降幅度均超过了74%，远超我国政府制定的2030年的碳强度要比2005年的碳强度下降65%的减碳目标。

关键词: 经济增长, 二氧化碳排放, 多目标优化模型, 能源消耗强度, 碳强度

Abstract: In order to reduce the impacts of global climate warming on world ecological environment, Chinese government has set up a “dual carbon” strategy of carbon peaking before 2030 and carbon neutralization before 2060. Approaches to energy-saving-emission-reducing and to economic growth as well have become one of the pending research topics. This paper, aiming at a coordinated development between energy-saving-emission-reducing and economic growth, focusing on three key points of economic growth, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission to construct a multiple objectives optimized model of industry economic growth, which is applied to study the impacts of decrement in industry energy consumption intensity on China's industry economic growth and carbon dioxide emission reduction by means of Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithms under three energy consumption intensity scenarios. From 2021 to 2023 under the benchmark scenario, GDP of other industries gains a highest annual growth rate, followed by transportation and warehousing and postal services. It indicates that their economic growth potential in the future will be relatively greater. China's accumulated GDP is estimated to reach 1 26399 trillion yuan, 1 264.18 trillion yuan and 1 264.28 trillion yuan under the three scenarios from 2021 to 2023, indicating that decrement in energy consumption intensity can not only reduce carbon dioxide emission, but also boost China's GDP growth. China's gross energy consumption under the low carbon will decrease by 20% than under the benchmark scenario during 2021 to 2030, and by 40% under the strengthen low carbon, under the two low-carbon scenarios, the decline of the national total energy consumption is basically the same as that of the industry energy intensity. China's carbon intensity changes show a descending trend under the three scenarios from 2021 to 2023, reaching 0.083 4t/KRMB, 0.068 0t/KRMB and 0.053 0t/KRMB in 2030, down by 74% compared to 2005, far over the government's target 65%.

Key words: economic growth, carbon dioxide emission, multiple objectives optimized model, energy consumption intensity, carbon intensity

中图分类号:

X22
F124

王成军, 韩延菲. 节能减排约束下的行业经济增长路径研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(4): 1-11.

WANG Chengjun, HAN Yanfei. APPROACHES TO INDUSTRY ECONOMIC GROWTH PATH CONSTRAINED BY ENERGY-SAVING-EMISSION-REDUCING[J]. Resources & Industries, 2023, 25(4): 1-11.

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