粮食主产区的新型城镇化与粮食安全——基于土地规模化经营中介效应检验

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20231213.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在新时代发展背景下，新型城镇化成为粮食主产区城乡二元结构变革和农业生产方式转型的关键。论文基于2007—2021年我国13个粮食主产区的省级面板数据，从产业链视角利用熵值法测度粮食安全水平，基于新型城镇化内涵构建包含人口、经济、社会、空间的多维度指标体系并测度新型城镇化水平，探究新型城镇化对粮食安全的影响，并以土地规模化经营为中介变量，分析新型城镇化及其各维度影响粮食安全的作用机制。结果表明：1）粮食主产区的新型城镇化对粮食安全有显著的促进作用，并且土地规模化经营在新型城镇化对粮食安全的作用过程中存在中介效应；2）分维度异质性分析表明，人口城镇化与空间城镇化对粮食安全产生显著的正向影响，且土地规模化经营在其中发挥部分或完全的中介效应。为此，提出积极推进新型城镇化、鼓励土地规模化经营并从人口、经济、社会、空间城镇化多个维度因地制宜调整粮食发展战略是粮食主产区发展的长远之策。

关键词: 粮食安全, 新型城镇化, 土地规模化经营, 粮食主产区, 中介效应

Abstract: New urbanization has become the key means to reform urban-rural dual structural and to transform agricultural producing ways in major grain-producing areas under the new era developing background. This paper, based on 2007 to 2021 provincial panel data of China’s 13 major grain-producing areas, uses entropy to estimate China’s grain security level from perspective of industrial chain, applies new urbanization contents to establish a multiple-dimensional index system that is composed of population, economy, society and space, which is employed to estimate the new urbanization level and to study its impacts on grain security, and applies land scaling operation as mediating variable to study the mechanism of new urbanization and its dimensions on grain security. New urbanization largely boosts grain security in major grain-producing areas, and land scaling operation plays a mediating effect amid new urbanization works on grain security. Dimensional heterogeneity suggests that population urbanization and spatial urbanization play an outstandingly positive role on grain security, during which land scaling operation plays a partial or total mediating effect. This paper presents suggestions on boosting new urbanization, and encouraging land scaling operation, and making appropriate strategy from population, economy, society and spatial urbanization as a long-term approach for the major grain-producing areas.

Key words: grain security, new urbanization, land scaling operation, major grain producing areas, mediating effect

中图分类号:

F290
F326.11

华坚, 杨梦依, 曹慧敏. 粮食主产区的新型城镇化与粮食安全——基于土地规模化经营中介效应检验[J]. 资源与产业, 2024, 26(1): 50-60.

HUA Jian, YANG Mengyi, CAO Huimin. NEW URBANIZATION AND GRAIN SECURITY IN MAJOR GRAIN PRODUCING AREAS BASED ON MEADIATING EFFECTS OF LAND SCALING OPERATION[J]. Resources & Industries, 2024, 26(1): 50-60.

参考文献

蔡昉, 王美艳, 2016. 从穷人经济到规模经济: 发展阶段变化对中国农业提出的挑战[J]. 经济研究, 51(5): 14-26. 〔CAI F, WANG M Y, 2016. Challenges facing China’s agriculture as it moves towards a new development stage [J]. Economic Research Journal, 51(5): 14-26.〕

程明, 方青, 2023. 乡村振兴与新型城镇化战略耦合机理研究: 基于城乡要素流动的视角[J]. 华东经济管理, 37(5): 1-8. 〔CHENG M, FANG Q, 2023. Research on the coupling mechanism of rural revitalization and new urbanization strategy: from the perspective of urban-rural factor flow [J]. East China Economic Management, 37(5): 1-8.〕

范柏乃, 吴晓彤, 李旭桦, 2020. 城市创新能力的空间分布及其影响因素研究[J]. 科学学研究, 38(8): 1473-1480. 〔FAN B N, WU X T, LI X H, 2020. Study on the spatial distribution of urban innovation capacity and its influencing factors[J]. Studies in Science of Science, 38(8): 1473-1480.〕

高帆, 2005. 中国粮食安全的测度: 一个指标体系[J]. 经济理论与经济管理(12): 5-10. 〔GAO F, 2005. China’s food safety measure: an indicator system [J]. Economic Theory and Business Management(12): 5-10.〕

胡凌啸, 2018. 中国农业规模经营的现实图谱: “土地+服务”的二元规模化[J]. 农业经济问题, 467(11): 20-28. 〔HU L X, 2018. The reality of agricultural scale management in China: the mode of “land+service”[J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 467(11): 20-28.〕

胡晴, 刘柄麟, 张超, 等, 2017. 苏州市人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调关系研究[J]. 资源与产业, 19(1): 23-28. 〔HU Q, LIU SHALIN, ZHANG C, et al., 2017. Coordination between population urbanization and land urbanization in Suzhou city [J]. Resources and Industries, 19(1): 23-28.〕

冀名峰, 2018. 农业生产性服务业: 我国农业现代化历史上的第三次动能[J]. 农业经济问题, 459(3): 9-15. 〔JI M F, 2018. Agricultural productive service industry: the third momentum in Chinese agricultural modernization history[J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 459(3): 9-15.〕

冷智花, 付畅俭, 2014. 城镇化失衡发展对粮食安全的影响[J]. 经济学家, 191(11): 58-65. 〔LENG Z H, FU C J, 2014. The influence of the disequilibrium development of urbanization on foods security[J]. Economist, 191(11): 58-65.〕

李红莉, 张俊飚, 童庆蒙, 2021. 增产是否增收?: 基于粮食主产区设立的准自然实验研究[J]. 华中农业大学学报(社会科学版)(1): 105-115〔LI H L, ZHANG J B, TONG Q M, 2021. More grain production, more income?: empirical evidence from the policy of major grain producing areas [J]. Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University (Social Science Edition)(1): 105-115.〕

李兰冰, 高雪莲, 黄玖立, 2020. “十四五”时期中国新型城镇化发展重大问题展望[J]. 管理世界, 36(11): 7-22. 〔LI, L B, GAO, X L, HUANG, J L, 2020. Prospects for major issues of China’s new urbanization development during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period[J]. Journal of Management World, 36(11): 7-22.〕

李云新, 戴紫芸, 丁士军, 2017. 农村一二三产业融合的农户增收效应研究: 基于对345个农户调查的PSM分析[J]. 华中农业大学学报(社会科学版)(4): 37-44〔LI Y X, DAI Z Y, DING S J, 2017. Impact of rural industry convergence on rural household income: PSM analysis based on survey of 345 rural households[J]. Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University (Social Science Edition)(4): 37-44.〕

柳凌韵, 周宏, 2017. 正规金融约束、规模农地流入与农机长期投资: 基于水稻种植规模农户的数据调查[J]. 农业经济问题, 38(9): 65-76.

罗必良, 2017. 论服务规模经营: 从纵向分工到横向分工及连片专业化[J]. 中国农村经济(11): 2-16. 〔LUO B L, 2017. Service scale management: vertical division of labor, horizontal division of labor and specialization of connected farmland [J]. Chinese Rural Economy(11): 2-16.〕

农业农村部科技发展中心, 2021. “十三五”中国农业农村科技发展报告[J]. 农业学报, 11(12): 3-4.

史桂芬, 沈淘淘, 2021. 新型城镇化背景下农业转移人口社会融合路径[J]. 东北师大学报(哲学社会科学版)(3): 103-114. 〔SHI G F, SHEN T T, 2021. The path of social integration of agricultural transfer population under the background of new-type urbanization [J]. Journal of Northeast Normal University (Philosophy and Social Science )(3): 103-114.〕

汪发元, 郑军, 裴潇, 2019. 长江经济带城镇化发展的空间动态分析[J]. 区域经济评论, 38(2): 101-109. 〔WANG F Y, ZHENG J, PEI X, 2019. The Spatial dynamic analysis of urbanization development in the Yangtze River economic zone[J]. Regional Economic Review, 38(2): 101-109.〕

王春光, 2013. 城市化中的“撤并村庄”与行政社会的实践逻辑[J]. 社会学研究, 28(3): 15-28. 〔WANG C G, 2013. “The Withdraw of Villages” during urbanization and the practical logic of the “Administrative Polity” [J]. Sociological Studies, 28(3): 15-28.〕

魏后凯, 2016. 坚持以人为核心推进新型城镇化[J]. 中国农村经济, 382(10): 11-14.

温忠麟, 叶宝娟, 2014. 中介效应分析: 方法和模型发展[J]. 心理科学进展, 22(5): 731-745. 〔WEN Z L, YE B J, 2014. Analysis of mediating effects: the development of methods and models [J]. Advances in Psychological Science, 22(5): 731-745.〕

吴振方, 2019. 农业适度规模经营: 缘由、路径与前景[J]. 农村经济(1): 29-36.

武前波, 2020. 知识经济背景下中国城镇化的第三次浪潮[J]. 经济地理, 40(9): 62-69. 〔Wu Q B, 2020. The third wave of urbanization in China based on knowledge economy[J]. Economic Geography, 40(9): 62-69.〕

熊成喜, 陈银蓉, 张舒, 2010. 水库移民安置区土地流转规模的影响因素分析: 基于Logit模型的实证研究[J]. 资源与产业, 12(3): 77-80. 〔XIONG C X, CHEN Y R, ZHANG S, 2010. A case study on logit model: factors of land circulation scale in reservoir immigration resettlements[J]. Resources and Industries, 12(3): 77-80.〕

徐保根, 韩璐, 陈佳骊, 2014. 新型城镇化中的土地统筹流转模式探讨: 基于浙江嘉兴“两分两换”的实践与思考[J]. 资源与产业, 16(1): 38-43. 〔XU B G, HAN L, CHEN J L, 2014. Land coordination transfer modes during new urbanization: viewing from Jiaxing’s “two separations and two exchanges”[J]. Resources and Industries, 16(1): 38-43.〕

徐美银, 2016. 农民工市民化与农村土地流转的互动关系研究[J]. 社会科学(1): 42-51. 〔XU M Y, 2016. A study on the interaction relationship between migrant workers citizenization and rural land transfer [J]. Journal of Social Sciences(1): 42-51.〕

徐志刚, 2023. 发展农业规模化经营[J]. 农业经济与管理, 77(1): 13-16. 〔XU Z G, 2023. Development of large-scale agricultural operation[J]. Agricultural Economics and Management, 77(1): 13-16.〕

闫周府, 吴方卫, 袁凯彬, 2021. 劳动禀赋变化、技术选择与粮食种植结构调整[J]. 财经研究, 47(4): 79-93. 〔YAN Z F, WU F W, YUAN K B, 2021. Labor endowment change, technological choice and grain planting structure adjustment[J]. Journal of Financial and Economics, 47(4): 79-93.〕

杨翠红, 林康, 高翔, 2022. 重大突发事件对粮食安全风险的影响[J]. 中国科学院院刊, 37(9): 1237-1247. 〔YANG C H, LIN K, GAO X, 2022. Impact of major emergencies on food security risks[J]. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 37(9): 1237-1247.〕

杨磊, 2014. 我国粮食安全风险分析及粮食安全评价指标体系研究[J]. 农业现代化研究, 35(6): 696-702. 〔YANG L, 2014. Study on the risk analysis and the risk assessment index system of grain security in China [J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 35(6): 696-702.〕

袁晓玲, 贺斌, 卢晓璐, 等, 2017. 中国新型城镇化质量评估及空间异质性分析[J]. 城市发展研究, 24(6): 125-132. 〔YUAN X L, HE B, LU X L, et al., 2017. The new urbanization Quality assessment and analysis of spatial heterogeneity in China[J]. Urban Development Studies, 24(6): 125-132.〕

张亨明, 伍圆圆, 2021. 城乡融合发展保障我国粮食安全的路径探析[J]. 东岳论丛, 42(11): 84-91.

张露, 罗必良, 2018. 小农生产如何融入现代农业发展轨道?: 来自中国小麦主产区的经验证据[J]. 经济研究, 53(12): 144-160. 〔ZHANG L, LUO B L, 2018. How can small farmers be incorporated into modern agricultural development?: evidence from wheat-producing areas of China [J]. Economic Research Journal, 53(12): 144-160.〕

张小洁, 张忠潮, 2012. 土地规模化经营对农业碳排放的影响机制[J]. 广东农业科学, 39(20): 176-179. 〔ZHANG X J, ZHANG Z C, 2012. The effect mechanism of large-scale management to agricultural carbon emissions [J]. Guangdong Agricultural Sciences, 39(20): 176-179.〕

张晓旭, 2022. 新发展格局下推进新型城镇化的重点任务[J]. 区域经济评论. 57(3): 144-150. 〔ZHANG X X, 2022. Key tasks of promoting new urbanization under the new development pattern[J]. Regional Economic Review, 57(3): 144-150.〕

赵丽平, 侯德林, 王雅鹏, 等, 2016. 城镇化对粮食生产环境技术效率影响研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 26(3): 153-162. 〔ZHAO L P, HOU D L, WANG Y P, et al., 2016. Study on the impact of urbanization on the environmental technology efficiency of grain production [J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 26(3): 153-162.〕

赵玉, 谢启阳, 丁宝根, 2020. 中国城镇化高质量发展的综合测度与演化特征[J]. 区域经济评论(5): 85-93. 〔ZHAO Y, XIE Q Y, DING B G, 2020. Comprehensive measurement and evolution characteristics of high quality development of urbanization in China [J]. Regional Economic Review(5): 85-93.〕

周飞舟, 王绍琛, 2015. 农民上楼与资本下乡: 城镇化的社会学研究[J]. 中国社会科学(1): 66-83, 203. 〔ZHOU F Z, WANG S C, 2015. Farmers moving upstairs and capital going down to the countryside: a sociological study of urbanization [J]. Social Sciences in China(1): 66-83, 203.〕

朱晶, 臧星月, 李天祥, 2021. 新发展格局下中国粮食安全风险及其防范[J]. 中国农村经济, 441(9): 2-21. 〔ZHU J, ZANG X Y, LI T X, 2021. China’s food security risks and prevention strategy under the new development pattern [J]. Chinese Rural Economy, 441(9): 2-21.〕

卓德雄, 曾献君, 2018. 福建省新型城镇化质量评价及测度: 基于 Topsis 改进的因子分析模型[J]. 中国农业资源与区划, 39(2): 221-229. 〔ZHUO D X, ZENG X J, 2018. Application of factor analysis model in measuring the new urbanization quality in Fujian province: based on improved topsis [J]. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 39(2): 221-229.〕

ARELLANO M, OLYMPIABOVER, 1995. Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1): 29-51.

KUNG J K S, 2002. Off-farm labor markets and the emergence of land rental markets in rural China[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics, 30(2): 395-414.

[1]	张长征, 孙潇怡. 绿色金融能提升绿色经济发展效率吗？[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(5): 72-85.
[2]	张倩, 梅亚丽, 王奎. 环境保护税、技术创新与制造业企业绩效——有调节的中介效应[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(3): 107-120.
[3]	杨恺钧, 段婷婷. 水资源约束对长江经济带绿色发展效率的影响——基于产业结构调整的中介效应和交互效应 [J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(2): 11-22.
[4]	宋敏, 唐荣, 施凯杰. 交通基础设施、研发人员流动对制造业出口技术复杂度的影响[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(2): 76-87.
[5]	朱智洺, 倪金鹏, 符磊. 绿色复苏视角下“新基建”如何推进高技术产业创新能力提升？[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(2): 111-125.
[6]	万欣, 苏鹏程, 毛鹏. 异质性治理主体视角下环境规制的治污路径——基于中介效应的空间差异分析[J]. 资源与产业, 2022, 24(5): 108-116.
[7]	朱智洺, 李秀琴, 黄永春. “一带一路”沿线国家粮食虚拟水贸易网络研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2020, 22(3): 31-42.
[8]	宋敏，马艳霞，汪琦. 金融发展、技术进步与全要素能源效率——基于中介效应的实证研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2020, 22(2): 69-78.
[9]	杨赫，杨栋会，刘方. 环境规制、产业转移与资源配置[J]. 资源与产业, 2019, 21(3): 38-45.
[10]	赵辉. 新型城镇化背景下资源型城市转型研究:以榆林市为例[J]. 资源与产业, 2015, 17(3): 8-13.
[11]	孙楠，秦沛，唐磊. 新型城镇化背景下公众参与城市环境管理的路径分析[J]. 资源与产业, 2015, 17(1): 43-47.
[12]	徐保根，韩　璐，陈佳骊. 新型城镇化中的土地统筹流转模式探讨—基于浙江嘉兴“两分两换”的实践与思考[J]. 资源与产业, 2014, 16(1): 38-43.
[13]	刘倩, 冉瑞平. 基于系统平衡的成都市耕地保有量预测[J]. 资源与产业, 2011, 13(6): 57-61.