基于多区域投入产出模型的京津冀地区虚拟水流动及风险传递

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20250702.013

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 水资源短缺问题已经成为制约京津冀地区可持续发展的最主要问题之一。特别是以商品和服务贸易为载体的虚拟水在京津冀地区被大量转移，对本地水资源合理使用及优化配置产生重要影响。论文构建基于环境拓展的多区域投入产出模型，计算京津冀地区不同产业部门的用水系数，剖析京津冀地区的虚拟水流动格局与变化，并进一步构建水资源短缺风险指标及风险传递价值模型，从输入、输出两个视角分析京津冀地区水资源短缺风险。研究结果显示：1）2012—2017年，京津冀地区水资源利用的总体趋势是节水和高效用水，区域整体上为虚拟水净流入区，外部水资源的流入能够有效降低区域水资源短缺风险，其中北京、天津两市为虚拟水净流入区，河北省发挥了区域内最大的虚拟水支撑作用；2）京津冀地区农业用水效率低下，工业和服务业在产业链的上下游环节仍有节水潜力可挖掘，此外，农业部门、食品和烟草部门分别在生产端和消费端发挥着重要作用；3）北京、天津两市水资源短缺风险指数较低，河北省面临着较大的水资源短缺压力，致使虚拟水输入、输出双方的风险增加量具有非对称性，“天津→北京”“河北→北京”为风险传递价值较高的两条路径，基于此提出北京市要调整产业结构，朝着有利于虚拟水流入的方向转变，天津市、河北省则注重转向虚拟水流出。基于上述研究结果，提出实施虚拟水战略是实现京津冀地区可持续发展的有效途径，京津冀地区要进一步优化产业布局，促进贸易结构升级，从而协调和优化水资源流动格局，降低区域水资源短缺风险。

关键词: 京津冀地区, 多区域投入产出模型, 虚拟水, 水资源短缺风险, 风险价值传递

Abstract: Shortage of water resources has become one major issue in constraining BTH's sustainability. Large volume of virtual water in BTH in forms of commodity and servicing has been transferred, largely impacting the local water resources use and allocation. This paper establishes an environmentally-extended multi-regional input/output model, which is used to estimate their water use coefficients in industrial sections, and studies its virtual water flowing pattern and changes, and constructs water scarcity risk indicators and risk transfer values model, which is used to study the BHT's water resource shortage risks from input and output. During 2012 to 2017, BHT has an overall trend in saving water and efficiency as a net flowing in area of virtual water, which can effectively reduce the water resource shortage risks. Beijing and Tianjin receive a net virtual water flowing-in, largely supported by Hebei province. BHT has a low water use efficiency in agriculture, but has much potential in water saving in the upper- and down-stream of industrial and servicing sectors. Agricultural, food and cigarettes sectors play a key role in production and consumption sides. Beijing and Tianjin have a low risk indicator in water resource shortages, but Hebei is high, leading to an asymmetric adding risk in virtual water supplier and receiver,“Tianjin→Beijing” and “Hebei→Beijing” are two paths with higher risk transferring values. Beijing needs to adjust its industrial structure towards virtual water flowing-in, and Tianjin and Hebei need to focus on virtual water flowing-out. Virtual water strategy is an practical way in realize BHT's sustainability, BHT should further optimize industrial layout, promote trading structural upgrading, coordinate water resource flowing pattern and decrease regional water resource shortage risks.

Key words: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, multi-regional input/output model, virtual water, water resource shortage risk, risk values transfer

中图分类号:

F207
TV213.4

朱雨晴, 王天宁, 汪喜悦. 基于多区域投入产出模型的京津冀地区虚拟水流动及风险传递[J]. 资源与产业, 2025, 27(4): 47-58.

ZHU Yuqing, WANG Tianning, WANG Xiyue. VIRTUAL WATER FLOWS AND RISK TRANSFER IN BEIJING-TIANJIN-HEBEI (BTH) REGION BASED ON MULTI-REGIONAL INPUT/OUTPUT MODEL[J]. Resources & Industries, 2025, 27(4): 47-58.

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