关键词: 情境分析, 可再生能源, 科技创新, 能源替代

Abstract:

China will be focusing on developing renewable energy due to a pressure in climate change and environmental protection and energy safety, increasing non-fossil energy consumption percentage in one-time energy consumption. The renewable energy, low in energy density, high in development cost, needs breakthrough in key technologies, so it has weak market competitiveness. Hence, to develop renewable energy needs a scientific planning and structural optimization. In the future ten years, China will be facing many scenarios, which shall be understood well, favorable for presenting approaches to make sure sustainability in China’s renewable energy development.

Key words: scenario analysis, renewable energy, scientific innovation, energy substitute