关键词: 公司估值；自由现金流, 现金流折现模型, 实物期权模型, 二叉树期权定价模型

Abstract:

Discounted cash flow (DCF) is a mature, widelyused and most acceptable way in petroleum companys evaluation, but with defects when evaluating with high uncertainty. The real option, through transplanting the financial option pricing to real investing pricing, covers the values of future investment decision. This paper, based on a comparison of the above, uses the both to evaluate Nexen, and finds that cashflow fast and direct, but if under a suppose of a precise future cashflow and discounted ratio in expected life and unchanged environment. The real option, however, makes up this but with its dim model weakening its effect.

Key words: companys evaluation, free cashflow, discounted cashflow model, real option model, binomial option pricing model