基于风光发电的中国各省绿氢替代灰氢经济性研究——基于精细地理网格分析

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20240513.001

资源与产业 ›› 2024, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (3): 134-146.DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20240513.001

基于风光发电的中国各省绿氢替代灰氢经济性研究——基于精细地理网格分析

张荣达^1,2，赵晓丽^1,2，张庆斌^1,2，谢茜茹^1,2

（1.中国石油大学(北京) 经济管理学院, 北京 102249；2.中国石油大学(北京) 低碳经济与政策研究中心, 北京102249）

收稿日期:2023-12-29 修回日期:2024-04-12 出版日期:2024-06-20 发布日期:2024-06-20
通讯作者: 赵晓丽，博士、教授，主要从事能源经济与能源政策研究。E-mail：email99zxl@vip.sina.com
作者简介:张荣达，博士生，主要从事资源环境与能源系统发展战略及规划研究。E-mail：runndazhang@sina.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（71934006）；国家社会科学基金资助项目（21AZD111）；国家社会科学基金资助项目（22&ZD103）。

ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY OF GREEN HYDROGEN REPLACING GRAY HYDROGEN IN CHINA'S PROVINCES BASED ON WIND AND PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER GENERATION：BASED ON DETAILED GEOGRAPHIC GRID ANALYSIS

ZHANG Rongda^1，2, ZHAO Xiaoli^1，2, ZHANG Qingbin^1，2, XIE Qianru^1，2

(1.School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China; 2.Research Center for Low Carbon Economy and Policies, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China)

Received:2023-12-29 Revised:2024-04-12 Online:2024-06-20 Published:2024-06-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了深入研究基于风力与光伏发电的我国各个省份绿氢能源替代灰氢能源的经济性，本文基于卫星遥感技术首先对我国各个地理网格单元内的可再生能源禀赋进行了分析，在考虑了风力发电与光伏发电出力情况的前提下，运用构建的相关计算公式，经过计算分别获得了当前我国各个省份的氢气需求量、灰氢制取成本、绿氢制取成本、绿氢平均输送距离、绿氢使用成本等相关数据，进而借助以上数据对我国各个省份绿氢能源替代灰氢能源的经济性及其替代量都进行了深入探究，并且还对各个省份未来绿氢能源替代灰氢能源的前景做出了预测。研究结果表明：1）内蒙古、新疆、河北等个别北方省份（自治区、直辖市）的风力发电、光伏发电的效果较好，可再生能源发电成本较低，2022年在内蒙古、新疆、河北等省份中部分地区的绿氢使用成本已经低于灰氢使用成本。2）2022年我国绿氢能源对灰氢能源的替代总量为51.80万～335.62万t。随着风力发电、光伏发电及电解槽技术的持续进步，以及碳交易价格的不断提升，至2040年我国绿氢能源对灰氢能源的替代总量预计将会达到4 168万～8 176万t，至2060年我国绿氢能源对灰氢能源的替代总量预计将会达到27 900万～48 000万t。3）至2040年我国各省份间的用氢需求量，以及绿氢制取量差距较为悬殊，其中内蒙古、新疆、甘肃、青海等省份的绿氢制取量相对较多，预计可以共同向其他省份输送1 352.万～3 410万t的绿氢能源，而宁夏、山西、四川、河南4个省份的绿氢制取量相对较低，还无法满足本省对氢气能源的需求且缺口较大，预计缺口将会达到516万～946万t。

关键词: 风力发电, 光伏发电, 地理网格单元, 绿氢, 灰氢

Abstract: To further study the economic feasibility of green hydrogen energy to replace gray hydrogen energy in China's provinces based on wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation， this paper uses remote sensing to analyze the occurrences of renewable energies in China's geographic grids unit，and calculates China's provinces demand for hydrogen，gray hydrogen producing cost，green hydrogen producing cost，average transporting distance and using cost，which are employed the above data to explore the economic feasibility and volumes of green hydrogen energy to replace gray hydrogen energy in China's provinces and to forecast its outlook.Wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation work well in Inner Mongolia，Xinjiang ，Hebei and other individual northern provinces. In 2022, the cost of using green hydrogen in some regions of Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Hebei and other provinces has been lower than the cost of using gray hydrogen China's green hydrogen energy has a total quantity 518.0 to 3 356.2 kt in replacing gray hydrogen in 2022, expected to be rising up to 41 680 to 81 760 kt in 2040 as technology on wind power generation，photovoltaic power generation and electrolyzer is advancing and carbon trading price is rising，even up to 279 000 to 480 000 kt in 2060. In 2040，the demand for hydrogen and the amount of green hydrogen produced in various provinces in China are quite different，green hydrogen production is relatively higher in Inner Mongolia，Xinjiang，Gansu and Qinghai，with a total supply of 13.52 to 34.10 million tons to other provinces，while green hydrogen production is insufficient in Ningxia， Shanxi，Sichuan and Henan，where need a 5.16 to 9.46 million tons to meet their needs.

Key words: wind power generation, photovoltaic power generation, geographic grid unit, green hydrogen, gray hydrogen

中图分类号:

TM61
F426.2

张荣达, 赵晓丽, 张庆斌, 等. 基于风光发电的中国各省绿氢替代灰氢经济性研究——基于精细地理网格分析[J]. 资源与产业, 2024, 26(3): 134-146.

ZHANG Rongda, ZHAO Xiaoli, ZHANG Qingbin, et al.. ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY OF GREEN HYDROGEN REPLACING GRAY HYDROGEN IN CHINA'S PROVINCES BASED ON WIND AND PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER GENERATION：BASED ON DETAILED GEOGRAPHIC GRID ANALYSIS[J]. Resources & Industries, 2024, 26(3): 134-146.

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基于风光发电的中国各省绿氢替代灰氢经济性研究——基于精细地理网格分析

ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY OF GREEN HYDROGEN REPLACING GRAY HYDROGEN IN CHINA'S PROVINCES BASED ON WIND AND PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER GENERATION：BASED ON DETAILED GEOGRAPHIC GRID ANALYSIS

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