京津冀地区农产品虚拟水与区域可持续发展关系研究

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20160615.004

资源与产业 ›› 2016, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (3): 80-85.DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20160615.004

京津冀地区农产品虚拟水与区域可持续发展关系研究

刘宁，沙景华，张宏亮，等

（1中国地质大学人文经管学院，北京 100083；2 国土资源部资源环境承载力评价重点实验室，北京 100083；3西南科技大学经济管理学院，重庆 6210000）

出版日期:2016-06-26 发布日期:2016-06-26
基金资助:
教育部资助项目优秀导师基金（35732015097）

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCT VIRTUAL WATER AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN BEIJING'TIANJIN'HEBEI REGION

Liu Ning，Sha Jinghua，Zhang Hongliang

(1. School of Humanities and Economic Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing, 100083, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assesssment for Resource and Environment, MLR, Beijing 100083,China; 3. School of Economics and Management, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Chongqing, 621000, China)

Online:2016-06-26 Published:2016-06-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

京津冀地处华北，是我国极度缺水地区，年供水量不足水资源需求量的一半，其中农业用水占全年总用水量70%，且呈增长趋势，合理配置水资源有助于实现该区域可持续发展。文章基于虚拟水核算方法，对京津冀地区10种农产品虚拟水含量进行计算，并通过建立固定效应回归模型，分析农产品虚拟水对经济增长的影响，通过调整农业产业结构，达到节约水资源、促进经济可持续发展的目的。计算结果显示：2014年该区域农业虚拟水含量是实体水年使用量的10倍，可达到1 854亿m3；10种农产品年均虚拟水含水量排名是：粮食产品、禽蛋、当年造林、肉类产品、干鲜果品、牛奶、蔬菜、水产品、油料和棉花；为合理利用有限的水资源，在开放的市场系统下通过调整农业产业结构与虚拟水贸易，年节水 32亿m3

关键词: 京津冀, 农产品虚拟水, 面板数据, 固定效应模型, 种植结构

Abstract:

BeijingTianjinHebei located in the Northern China is seriously short of water that the water supply is less than the half of demand. Agricultural water mounts up to 70%, and in rising. A rational allocation of water use can help the sustainable development in this area. This paper by using the virtual water algorithm measures their virtual water of ten agricultural products and establishes a fixed effect regress model to analyze its influence on economy. Adjusting agricultural structure can reach the objective of saving water and promoting sustainable development of economy. In 2014 the virtual water of agriculture is 10 times the actual water use, 1854×1010m3. Their annual virtual water in ten agricultural products rank in order, grain crops, poultry eggs, forest products, meat, dry and fresh fruit, milk, vegetables, fishing products, oil products and cotton. It could save 32×108m3 every year under an open system through adjusting agricultural structure and virtual water trade.

Key words: BeijingTianjinHebei area, virtual water, panel data, fixedeffect model, plantation structure

中图分类号:

F205
F322

刘宁，沙景华，张宏亮，等. 京津冀地区农产品虚拟水与区域可持续发展关系研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2016, 18(3): 80-85.

Liu Ning，Sha Jinghua，Zhang Hongliang. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCT VIRTUAL WATER AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN BEIJING'TIANJIN'HEBEI REGION[J]. Resources & Industries, 2016, 18(3): 80-85.

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京津冀地区农产品虚拟水与区域可持续发展关系研究

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCT VIRTUAL WATER AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN BEIJING'TIANJIN'HEBEI REGION

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