京津冀城市群高质量发展测度及时空分异特征研究

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20240016.003

资源与产业 ›› 2024, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (1): 1-14.DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20240016.003

• 非主题来稿选登 • 下一篇

京津冀城市群高质量发展测度及时空分异特征研究

柯文岚^1,2,3，李文慧^1,2，闫晶晶⁴

（1.福建江夏学院经济贸易学院，福建福州 350108；2.福建江夏学院生态技术经济研究院，福建福州 350108；3.数字中国研究院（福建），福建福州 350108；4.中国地质大学经济管理学院，北京 100083）

收稿日期:2023-07-12 修回日期:2023-07-31 出版日期:2024-02-20 发布日期:2024-02-20
通讯作者: 闫晶晶，博士、教授，主要从事资源环境经济、区域经济方面的研究。E-mail:yanjingjing312@hotmail.com
作者简介:柯文岚，博士、副教授，主要从事资源环境经济政策评价方面的研究。E-mail:kewenlan1988@hotmail.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目（41971258）；福建省社会科学基金青年项目（FJ2021C018）；福建省自然科学基金面上项目（2021J011227）。

MEASUREMENT AND TEMPORAL-SPATIAL DIFFERENTIATION OF BEIJING-TIANJIN-HEBEI (JJJ) CITY CLUSTER’S QUALITY DEVELOPMENT

KE Wenlan1,2,3, LI Wenhui^1,2, YAN Jingjing⁴

(1.School of Economics and Trades, Fujian Jiangxia University, Fuzhou 350108, China;2.Eco-Economic Technical Institute, Fujian Jiangxia university, Fuzhou 350108, China;3.Digital China Academy (Fujian), Fuzhou 350108, China; 4.School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China)

Received:2023-07-12 Revised:2023-07-31 Online:2024-02-20 Published:2024-02-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为推动国家京津冀协同发展战略，促进京津冀城市群高质量发展，论文首先以京津冀13个地级市为研究对象，基于2011—2020年的数据样本，依据高质量发展的内涵特征，构建了京津冀城市群高质量发展综合评价指标体系。然后运用熵权-TOPSIS模型测算了2011—2020年京津冀城市群高质量发展指数，并采用耦合协调度模型、空间自相关模型剖析了京津冀城市群高质量发展的耦合协调度水平、时空演变趋势及空间集聚效应。结果表明：1）京津冀城市群高质量发展的耦合协调度呈现先弱后强的态势，2011—2015年耦合协调度明显下降，2015年之后高质量发展耦合协调度则明显回升，其中，耦合度持续上升，耦合情况向好及以上的城市占京津冀城市群中城市数量的84%以上；2）协调度时空格局基本未变，除北京协调度始终保持高位以外，沧州、天津、唐山、秦皇岛四个城市始终处于第二梯队；3）从高质量发展空间演变格局来看，北京、天津和廊坊为城市群高质量发展的核心区域，整体呈现出从中心向东南外围辐射，且从东南向东北依次递减的空间格局；4）从空间相关性来看，京津冀城市群发展质量在空间结构上存在正的全局自相关，发展质量较高的城市在地理上往往更接近，但同时空间异质性明显，即京津冀省会（直辖市）城市主要位于促进区，沧州、衡水、秦皇岛等地处于过渡区，廊坊则处于辐射区，且呈负相关性，因此弥合区域间的发展鸿沟是京津冀城市群高质量发展的重要命题。鉴于此，本文提出了加快产业转型，缩小区域落差；加强环保合作，促进绿色发展；盘活区际资源，驱动科技创新；共建公共服务，共享协同红利等对策建议。

关键词: 京津冀城市群, 高质量发展, 耦合协调, 空间自相关, 时空分异

Abstract: China is entering a new era with its economy turning to quality development from rapid growth. JJJ, as a new capital economic zone, plays a key role in demonstrating city cluster’s quality development. This paper, aiming at JJJ’s coalition in developing strategy for a quality city cluster’s quality development, this paper, based on JJJ"s 13 perfectures’ 2011 to 2020 data, uses the contents of quality development to establish a comprehensive evaluation index system for JJJ city cluster’s quality development, and employs entropy-TOPSIS model to estimate JJJ city cluster’s 2011 to 2020 quality developing index, and applies coupling coordination model & spatial autocorrelation model to study its coupling coordinating level, temporal-spatial evolutionary trend and spatial concentrating effect.The coupling coordination of JJJ city cluster’s quality development shows a weak-then-strong trend, with major cities in coordination in 2011 to 2015 changing to developing cities, at a decreasing coupling coordination, but rising after 2015. The coupling has been steadily rising, 84% of JJJ’s cities are rising in their coupling, most with strong correlation among economy, eco-environment, innovation, and civilian welfare. Temporal-spatial pattern of coordination has not changed, Cangzhou, Tianjin, Tangshan and Qinhuangdao have always been at the tier 2 except Beijing seats atop. Spatial evolutionary pattern of quality development suggests Beijing, Tianjin and Langfang are in the core area of city cluster’s quality development, radiating outward to southeast, falling toward northeast. Economy, eco-environment innovation and civilian welfare are the same. JJJ’s city cluster’s quality development has a positive overall auto-correlation, cities of high quality development are geographically closer, with outstanding spatial heterogeneity, their capitals are mainly located in the promoting area, Cangzhou, Hengshui and Qinhuangdao in the transition zone, and Langfang in the radiation zone, negatively correlated. A key mission for JJJ’s city cluster’s quality development is to make up the regional developing gap. This paper presents suggestions on accelerating industrial transformation to diminish regional gap, intensifying environmental cooperation to promote green development, activating regional resources to drive innovation, and jointly constructing public services to share the dividends.

Key words: JJJ city cluster, high-quality development, coupling coordination, spatial auto-correlation; temporal-spatial differentiation

中图分类号:

F129.9

柯文岚, 李文慧, 闫晶晶. 京津冀城市群高质量发展测度及时空分异特征研究[J]. 资源与产业, 2024, 26(1): 1-14.

KE Wenlan, LI Wenhui, YAN Jingjing. MEASUREMENT AND TEMPORAL-SPATIAL DIFFERENTIATION OF BEIJING-TIANJIN-HEBEI (JJJ) CITY CLUSTER’S QUALITY DEVELOPMENT[J]. Resources & Industries, 2024, 26(1): 1-14.

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京津冀城市群高质量发展测度及时空分异特征研究

MEASUREMENT AND TEMPORAL-SPATIAL DIFFERENTIATION OF BEIJING-TIANJIN-HEBEI (JJJ) CITY CLUSTER’S QUALITY DEVELOPMENT

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