太阳辐射干预对自然和社会的潜在影响及其治理——IPCC AR6 的认识与观点

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20240226.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 科技界关于采用太阳辐射干预（SRM）等地球工程方案来遏制甚至扭转全球气候变化的讨论由来已久、日益增多。本文重点解读联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第六次评估报告（AR6）第二、三工作组报告中,关于SRM对自然和社会可能造成的风险及其实施障碍的认识与观点。1）SRM是碳减排和碳移除等气候减缓行动的不完美补充手段。SRM通过影响地球系统辐射平衡,以抵消人为温室气体排放所引起的辐射强迫,从而实现快速冷却和降低其他气候危害。但SRM没有解决人为气候变化的根源（温室气体）,温室气体浓度增加对人类和自然系统的影响将依然存在。2）SRM的作用效果和潜在影响具有空间异质性,实施SRM可能会给人类和生态系统造成长期风险。实施SRM对作物产量、人类健康和生态系统的（积极和消极的）综合影响存在不确定性。因此,其决策过程需要考虑到区域异质性影响和长期风险,从而避免将负面影响转嫁至弱势地区,以及避免将风险转嫁给子孙后代。3）科学研究进展缓慢、公众认知水平不高和伦理道德观念不同、各国利益难以平衡,都对推进SRM科学实验和国际治理形成障碍。SRM科学研究面临评估结论不可靠、假设合理性存疑、未来因素不确定等挑战,当前科学基础难以有效支撑SRM国际治理发展。由于不同国家的利益差异、价值观差异和地缘政治因素,达成共识和协议可能会面临困难。目前缺乏正式责任和法律框架,可能给国际合作与和平带来新风险。SRM国际治理内涵涉及政策、法律、科学、公众参与和技术支持等多个层面,发展国际治理框架应与技术研究共同演进。

关键词: 气候变化, 地球工程, 太阳辐射干预, 气候治理, 不确定性, IPCC报告

Abstract: Discussions on solar radiation modification (SRM) to harness global climate change in academic domain have been rising. This paper gives an interpretation of IPCC ARR regarding its SRM's risks and obstacles on nature and society. SRM serves as an imperfect supplement in carbon emission reduction and removal, can offset radiation from manmade green gas emission through influencing the earth's radiation balance, reaching a fast cooling down and decrease other climatic hazards, but SRM has no solution to source of green gas, whose impacts on nature and human will remain with its rising concentration. Effectiveness and potential impacts of SRM is of spatial heterogeneity, and a long-term risk may be brought to human and nature upon its execution, uncertain on the crops production, human's health and eco-system. Decision must consider the regional heterogeneity and long-term risks to avoid its negative impacts on vulnerable areas and to human's offsprings. Slow research advances, low public recognition and ethic concept, and imbalanced nation's interests impedes SRM's scientific tests and international harness. SRM's research is challenged by unreliable evaluation conclusion, doubtful assumed rationality and future uncertainty. The current scientific basis cannot effectively support SRM's international harness. Nations with different interests, values and geopolitics are hard to reach agreement on SRM. Lack of official responsibilities and laws may bring new risks to international cooperation and peace. SRM's international harness covers policies, laws, science, public participation and technical supports, which shall be jointly developed with technical research.

Key words: climate change, earth engineering, solar radiation modification, climate harness, uncertainty, IPCC report

中图分类号:

F206

郑国梁, 廖华. 太阳辐射干预对自然和社会的潜在影响及其治理——IPCC AR6 的认识与观点[J]. 资源与产业, 2024, 26(4): 1-9.

ZHENG Guoliang, LIAO Hua. IPCC AR6'S VIEWS ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND HARNESS OF SOLAR RADIATION MODIFICATION ON NATURE AND SOCIETY[J]. Resources & Industries, 2024, 26(4): 1-9.

参考文献

曹龙, 2021. IPCC AR6报告解读: 气候系统对太阳辐射干预响应[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 17（6）: 671-684.〔CAO L, 2021. Climate system response to solar radiation modification[J]. Climate Change Research, 17(6): 671-684.〕

陈迎, 辛源, 2017. 1.5 ℃温控目标下地球工程问题剖析和应对政策建议[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 13（4）: 337-345.〔CHEN Y, XIN Y, 2017. Implications of geoengineering under 1.5 ℃ target: analysis and policy recommendations[J]. Climate Change Research, 13(4): 337-345.〕

潘家华, 2012. “地球工程”作为减缓气候变化手段的几个关键问题[J]. 中国人口· 资源与环境, 22（5）: 22-26.〔PAN J H, 2012. Key issues related to geo-engineering as approaches to climate change mitigation[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 22(5): 22-26.〕

肖雨彤, 陈军, 2023. 全球碳中和愿景下绿色能源国际合作的演化博弈分析[J]. 资源与产业, 25（3）: 19-30.〔XIAO Y T, CHEN J, 2023. Evolutionary gaming analysis on green energy international cooperation under global carbon neutralization[J]. Resources & Industries, 25(3): 19-30.〕

魏一鸣, 韩融, 余碧莹, 等, 2022. 全球能源系统转型趋势与低碳转型路径: 来自于IPCC第六次评估报告的证据[J]. 北京理工大学学报（社会科学版）, 24（4）: 163-188.〔WEI Y M, HAN R, YU B Y, et al., 2022. Global energy systems transition trend and low-carbon transformation pathways: evidences from the IPCC AR6[J]. Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology（Social Science Edition）, 24(4): 163-188.〕

BURTON C, BETTS R A, JONES C D, et al., 2018. Will fire danger be reduced by using solar radiation management to limit global warming to 1.5 ℃ compared to 2.0 ℃?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(8): 3644-3652.

CALDEIRA K, BALA G, CAO L, 2013. The science of geoengineering[J]. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 41(1): 231-256.

CARLSON C J, COLWELL R, HOSSAIN M S, et al., 2022. Solar geoengineering could redistribute malaria risk in developing countries[J]. Nature Communications, 13(1): 1-9.

CARR W A, YUNG L, 2018. Perceptions of climate engineering in the South Pacific, Sub-Saharan Africa, and North American Arctic[J]. Climatic Change, 147(1/2): 119-132.

CROOK J A, JACKSON L S, OSPREY S M, et al., 2015. A comparison of temperature and precipitation responses to different Earth radiation management geoengineering schemes[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research（Atmospheres）, 120(18): 9352-9373.

DAI Z, WEISENSTEIN D K, KEUTSCH F N, et al., 2020. Experimental reaction rates constrain estimates of ozone response to calcium carbonate geoengineering[J]. Communications Earth & Environment, 1(1). DOI: 10.1038/s43247-020000587.

DANNENBERG A, ZITZELSBERGER S, 2019. Climate experts' views on geoengineering depend on their beliefs about climate change impacts[J]. Nature Climate Change, 9: 769-775.

DUAN L, CAO L, BALA G, et al., 2020. A model-based investigation of terrestrial plant carbon uptake response to four radiation modification approaches[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research（Atmospheres）, 125(9): e2019JD031883.

EASTHAM S D, WEISENSTEIN D K, KEITH D W, et al., 2018. Quantifying the impact of sulfate geoengineering on mortality from air quality and UV-B exposure[J]. Atmospheric Environment, 187: 424-434.

FAN Y C, TJIPUTRA J, MURI H, et al., 2021. Solar geoengineering can alleviate climate change pressures on crop yields[J]. Nature Food, 2(5): 373-381.

FLEGAL J A, GUPTA A, 2018. Evoking equity as a rationale for solar geoengineering research? : scrutinizing emerging expert visions of equity[J]. International Environmental Agreements(Politics, Law and Economics）, 18(1): 45-61.

FLEGAL J A, HUBERT AM, MORROW D R, et al., 2019. Solar geoengineering: social science, legal, ethical, and economic frameworks[J]. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 44(1): 399-423.

FLETCHER J O, 1968. Changing climate[C]. Santa Monica, CA, USA: Rand Corporation.

GLIENKE S, IRVINE P J, LAWRENCE M G, 2015. The impact of geoengineering on vegetation in experiment G1 of the GeoMIP[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research(Atmospheres), 120(19): 10196-10213.

GRAMSTAD K, TJOTTA S, 2010. Climate engineering: cost benefit and beyond[DB/OL]. MPRA Paper NO.27302. Munich Personal RePEc Archive (2010-12-09)[2024-02-19]. https: //mpra. ub. uni-muenchen. de/id/eprint/27302.

HEUTEL G, MORENO-CRUZ J, SHAYEGH S, 2018. Solar geoengineering, uncertainty, and the price of carbon[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 87: 24-41.

HORTON J B, KOREMENOS B, 2020. Steering and influence in transnational climate governance: nonstate engagement in solar geoengineering research[J]. Global Environmental Politics, 20(3): 93-111.

HOURDEQUIN M, 2019. Geoengineering justice: the role of recognition[J]. Science, Technology & Human Values, 44(3): 448-477.

IPCC, 2018. Special report on global warming of 1.5 ℃[R]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

IPCC, 2022. Climate change 2022: mitigation of climate change[R]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

JONES A, HAYWOOD J M, JONES A C, et al., 2021. North Atlantic Oscillation response in GeoMIP experiments G6solar and G6sulfur: why detailed modelling is needed for understanding regional implications of solar radiation management[J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 21(2): 1287-1304.

KELLER D P, 2018. Handbook on marine environment protection[M]. Berlin: Springer.

KRAVITZ B, MACMARTIN D G, 2020. Uncertainty and the basis for confidence in solar geoengineering research[J]. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 1(23): 64-75.

LEDERER M, KREUTER J, 2018. Organising the unthinkable in times of crises: will climate engineering become the weapon of last resort in the Anthropocene?[J]. Organization, 25(4): 472-490.

LLOYD I D, OPPENHEIMER M, 2014. On the design of an international governance framework for geoengineering[J]. Global Environmental Politics, 14(2): 45-63.

LOW S, HONEGGER M, 2022. A precautionary assessment of systemic projections and promises from sunlight reflection and carbon removal modeling[J]. Risk Analysis, 42(9): 1965-1979.

MACMARTIN D G, RICKE K L, KEITH D W, 2018. Solar geoengineering as part of an overall strategy for meeting the 1.5 ℃ Paris target[J]. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A (Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences), 376: 20160454.

MACMARTIN D G, KRAVITZ B, 2019. Mission-driven research for stratospheric aerosol geoengineering[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116: 1089-1094.

MARCHETTI C, 1977. On geoengineering and the CO₂ problem[J]. Climatic Change, 1(1): 59-68.

MATTHEWS H D, WYNES S, 2022. Current global efforts are insufficient to limit warming to 1.5 ℃[J]. Science, 376: 1404-1409.

MCDONALD J, MCGEE J, BRENT K, et al., 2019. Governing geoengineering research for the Great Barrier Reef[J]. Climate Policy, 19(7): 801-811.

MCLAREN D, 2016. Mitigation deterrence and the“moral hazard”of solar radiation management[J]. Earth's Future, 4(12): 596-602.

MERK C, PONITZSCH G, KNIEBES C, et al., 2015. Exploring public perceptions of stratospheric sulfate injection[J]. Climatic Change, 130(2): 299-312.

MURI H, NIEMEIER U, KRISTJANSSON J E, 2015. Tropical rainforest response to marine sky brightening climate engineering[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(8): 2951-2960.

NICHOLSON S, JINNAH S, GILLESPIE A, 2018. Solar radiation management: a proposal for immediate polycentric governance[J]. Climate Policy, 18(3): 322-334.

NORDHAUS W D, 2008. A question of balance[M]. New Haven: Yale University Press.

PANEL E P, PANEL E P, COMMITTEE U S P S S A, et al, 1965. Restoring the quality of our environment[R]. Washington: The White House.

PARKER A, 2014. Governing solar geoengineering research as it leaves the laboratory[J]. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A (Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences), 372: 20140173.

PARKES B, CHALLINOR A, NICKLIN K, 2015. Crop failure rates in a geoengineered climate: impact of climate change and marine cloud brightening[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 10(8): 084003.

PARSON E A, 2014. Climate engineering in global climate governance: implications for participation and linkage[J]. Transnational Environmental Law, 3: 89-110.

PEREIRA L M, MORROW D R, AQUILA V, et al., 2021. From fAIrplay to climate wars: making climate change scenarios more dynamic, creative, and integrative[J]. Ecology and Society, 26(4). DOI: 10. 5751/ES-12856-260430.

PIDGEON N, CORNER A, PARKHILL K, et al., 2012. Exploring early public responses to geoengineering[J]. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A(Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences), 370: 4176-4196.

PINKE Z, POW S, KERN Z, 2019. Volcanic mega-eruptions may trigger major cholera outbreaks[J]. Climate Research, 79(2): 151-162.

PROCTOR J, HSIANG S, BURNEY J, et al., 2018. Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions[J]. Nature, 560: 480-483.

RAHMAN A A, ARTAXO P, ASRAT A, et al., 2018. Developing countries must lead on solar geoengineering research[J]. Nature, 556: 22-24.

REYNOLDS J L, 2019. Solar geoengineering to reduce climate change: a review of governance proposals[J]. Proceedings of the Royal Society A(Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences), 475: 20190255.

RICKE K, 2023. Solar geoengineering is scary: that's why we should research it[J]. Nature, 614: 391-391.

SCHELLING T C, 1996. The economic diplomacy of geoengineering[J]. Climatic Change, 33(3): 303-307.

SENEVIRATNE S I, PHIPPS S J, PITMAN A J, et al., 2018. Land radiative management as contributor to regional-scale climate adaptation and mitigation[J]. Nature Geoscience, 11(2): 88-96.

STAVER A C, ARCHIBALD S, LEVIN S A, 2011. The global extent and determinants of savanna and forest as alternative biome states[J]. Science, 334: 230-232.

SUGIYAMA M, ISHII A, ASAYAMA S, et al, 2018. Solar geoengineering governance[C]. Oxford: Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science.

TAIWO O O, TALATI S, 2022. Who are the engineers?: solar geoengineering research and justice[J]. Global Environmental Politics, 22(1): 12-18.

TALBERG A, THOMAS S, CHRISTOFF P, et al., 2018. How geoengineering scenarios frame assumptions and create expectations[J]. Sustainability Science, 13(4): 1093-1104.

TILMES S, FASULLO J, LAMARQUE J F, et al., 2013. The hydrological impact of geoengineering in the geoengineering model intercomparison project(GeoMIP)[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research（Atmospheres）, 118(19): 11036-11058.

TRISOS C H, AMATULLI G, GUREVITCH J, et al., 2018. Potentially dangerous consequences for biodiversity of solar geoengineering implementation and termination[J]. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 2(3): 475-482.

UNEP, 2023. One atmosphere: an independent expert review on solar radiation modification research and deployment[R]. Nairobi: United Nations Environment Programme.

WEITZMAN M L, 2015. A voting architecture for the governance of free-driver externalities, with application to geoengineering[J]. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 117(4): 1049-1068.

WEXLER H, 1958. Modifying weather on a large scale: current proposals are either impractical or likely to produce cutes that are worse than the ailment[J]. Science, 128: 1059-1063.

XIA L L, NOWACK P J, TILMES S, et al., 2017. Impacts of stratospheric sulfate geoengineering on tropospheric ozone[J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 17(19): 11913-11928.

YANG H Y, DOBBIE S, RAMIREZ-VILLEGAS J, et al., 2016. Potential negative consequences of geoengineering on crop production: a study of Indian groundnut[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(22): 11786-11795.

ZARNETSKE P L, GUREVITCH J, FRANKLIN J, et al., 2021. Potential ecological impacts of climate intervention by reflecting sunlight to cool Earth[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 118: e1921854118.

ZHAN P, ZHU W Q, ZHANG T Y, et al., 2019. Impacts of sulfate geoengineering on rice yield in China: results from a multimodel ensemble[J]. Earth's Future, 7(4): 395-410.

[1]	杜晓荣, 黄彤欣. 资源协同对企业数字化转型的影响研究——基于经济政策不确定性的调节作用[J]. 资源与产业, 2024, 26(3): 147-159.
[2]	肖雨彤, 陈军. 全球碳中和愿景下绿色能源国际合作的演化博弈分析[J]. 资源与产业, 2023, 25(3): 19-30.
[3]	Le Thi Thuy Van. 东亚气候变化与可持续发展：影响与政策挑战[J]. 资源与产业, 2012, 14(6): 25-30.