Abstract: Geological exploration as the upper end stream of economy is led in inputs by the downstream demands. Industrial developing stages determine mineral product use intensity, which determines the input intensity of geological exploration. China's industrial structure evolution indicates that China has entered into the middle-post of industrialized stage, mineral product use intensity and geological inputs will be falling into declining period in a long term. Global competitiveness or rapid industrialization in nations on “the belt and road” is the approach to re-energize geological exploration, but can not be foreseen in the near future. Geological talents will be structurally short and generally excessive under China's declining geological exploration sector for a long term.

Key words: geological exploration sector, developing tendency, China

摘要： 地质勘查业作为国民经济中最上游的行业，其投入多寡由下游的需求变化所引导。其传导规律大致符合以下规律：工业发展阶段决定矿产品使用强度，矿产品使用强度决定了地勘投入强度。我国产业结构变迁规律表明，中国工业化发展阶段已经进入工业化中后期，矿产品使用强度及地勘投入将进入长期下跌通道。全球性的备战或“一带一路”沿线国家快速的工业化是挽救地质勘查业的出路，但可预见的时间内希望不大。在中国地质勘查业长期下行的大背景下，地勘行业人才结构性紧缺与总体过剩将长期存在。

关键词: 地质勘查业, 发展趋势, 中国