Abstract:

This paper via the Kuznets theory, based on temporal sequences, representative environmental economic index, available environmental economic data, selects per capital GDP as economic index, three wastes (water, gas and solids) as environmental indexes to analyze the correlation between economic development and environmental pollution by means of SPSS130 in recent 2 decades. All indexes have been processed into standardization and simulated with SPSS. The economicenvironmental regression model and Kuznets curves together show an unstable EKC stage in Ningxia, denying a “first polluting and then meliorating” model. It is necessary to change the economic development model for a sustainable development of population, resources and environment.

Key words:

Kuznet curve; three industrial wastes; economic development; Ningxia

摘要：

本文基于库兹涅兹曲线（EKC）理论，依据指标选取3个基本要求：跨越不同发展阶段且具有一定长度的时间序列；具有一定代表性的环境经济指标；具有可获取性的环境经济数据。选取人均GDP作为经济指标，工业废水、废气排放量及工业固体废物产生量作为环境指标，运用统计软件SPSS130，对宁夏地区近20年经济发展与环境污染的关系进行相关分析。研究表明，首先对所得指标进行标准化处理，并运用SPSS软件进行曲线模拟分析，做出经济指标与各个环境指标的回归模型图；其次结合环境经济学的库兹涅茨曲线对宁夏经济发展与环境污染的曲线图进行分析，最终发现宁夏还没达到EKC的稳定阶段，不能走“先污染、后治理”的发展模式。为此需要改变经济发展模式，实施可持续发展，实现人口、资源和环境的协调发展。

关键词: 库兹涅茨曲线；工业“三废”；经济增长；宁夏