Abstract: China's economy varies from provinces, also different in development potential. This paper by using the comprehensive evaluation theory for economic development potential, constructs the grade one index system from economic development, resource, infrastructure, and induced grade two 13 indexes. This paper uses expert scoring combined with AHP to give weight of each index, and applies effective coefficient to evaluate the economic development potential in China's 31 provinces. The results show bigger potentials are concentrating in the eastern China, like Tianjin, Beijing, Jiangsu, Fujian and Shanghai, small in central-western China, like Ningxia, Tibet, Shanxi, Qinghai and Hebei. This gap will exist and become further in a long term, so the western shall adopt corresponding approaches.

Key words: economy, development potential, effective coefficient, comprehensive evaluation

摘要： 中国省际经济发展水平不均衡，发展潜力也存在较大的差异。文章创造性地借鉴了现有经济发展潜力综合评价的理论，构建了以经济发展、资源禀赋、基础设施为一级指标的评价指标体系，由此产生了13个二级评价指标。采用专家评分法结合AHP法所确定的指标权重，运用功效系数法对中国31个省市区的经济发展潜力进行了评价，给出了评价结果。结果显示，发展潜力较大的地区主要集中在东部，如天津、北京、江苏、福建、上海等，而发展潜力较小的地区主要集中在中西部，如宁夏、西藏、山西、青海、河北等。进一步的研究认为在相当长的时间内，中国东西部的差距还将进一步加大，西部各地应采取相应的对策。

关键词: 经济, 发展潜力, 功效系数法, 综合评价