Abstract: China's GDP per capita exceeded 3 000 US dollars in 2008 as a record, marking a speedy development period for China's jewelry market. This paper, based on the new changes emerging in China's jewelry market, studies the major drives of jewelry consumption market by using 2002—2013 China's national income, urban and rural residents income per capita, jewelry sales avenue, and forecasts the consumption quantity in the future five years, which is estimated to be over 120 billion RMB in 2020. Chinese jewelry producers shall intensify input to occupy the highend market and boost channel construction to enlarge market share. 

Key words: jewelry, consumption, demandincome flexible coefficient, market, forecast

摘要： 2008年,我国人均GDP首次超过3 000美元，我国珠宝首饰市场进入一个高速发展的关键时期。文章在概述我国珠宝市场新变化的基础上，研究影响珠宝消费的主要因素，采用2002—2013年的国民收入、城镇居民家庭人均收入、农村居民家庭纯收入、珠宝销售额等数据，引入需求—收入弹性系数，对我国珠宝首饰消费的收入影响因素进行量化分析，并对未来5年我国珠宝市场消费量进行预测，预计2020年我国珠宝消费量有望超过12 000亿元，并在此基础上提出加大投入抢占高端市场，加强渠道建设扩大市场份额等应对我国珠宝市场深层次变化的建议。

关键词: 珠宝, 消费, 需求—收入弹性系数, 市场, 预测