Abstract: The economic globalization leads to a frequent and close trans national trading. Steel industry as China’s pillar industry provides vital basis for China’s economy. This paper uses Granger causality and 2003—2015 data to analyze the influence of China’s steel trade on economic growth. It concludes that steel export trade has a positive influence on economy, but its import has no obvious causality with economy. This paper presents suggestions on expanding steel export, which can deal with the excess of steel production capacity, and promote the economic growth as well.

Key words: steel trade, economic growth, Granger causality, China

摘要： 随着经济全球化的发展，各个国家之间的贸易往来越来越密切和频繁。钢铁工业是国民经济的重要支柱产业，钢铁行业的发展为我国经济的平稳持续发展提供了重要支撑。为此，文章基于格兰杰因果检验方法和2003—2015年间的数据，从经济视角分析了中国钢铁贸易对经济增长产生的影响。结果发现钢铁出口贸易额对经济增长产生正向影响，钢铁进口额与经济增长没有明显的因果关系。据此，提出需要加大钢铁出口贸易，一方面可以有效化解过剩产能; 另一方面可以促进经济增长。

关键词: 钢铁贸易, 经济增长, 格兰杰因果检验, 中国