Abstract: This paper, aiming at the factors of price fluctuation of rare sources in foreign trade, presents a method under many constraints, establishes a price fluctuation correlated network of rare resource in foreign trade, which is used to analyze the complexity of price fluctuation from non-dimensional, coefficient, and joints. Combined with vector self\|regress model, vector error correction model and normalized least\|square regress, a model is set up to analyze the factors of price fluctuation of rare resource in foreign trade with results showing that real GDP and real trading amount are the primary factors, and US dollar index, gold price, gambling proportion are secondary.  

Key words: rare resource, foreign trade, joints, error correction model, self-regress model, fluctuation factors 

摘要： 为准确分析稀缺资源对外贸易中的价格波动的影响，提出一种多关联约束条件下的分析方法，构建稀缺资源对外贸易价格波动关联网络，从无标度、相关系数、节点度角度分析价格波动的复杂性；在价格波动复杂性基础上，将向量自回归模型、向量误差修正模型、最小二乘法标准化回归分析方法结合，构建对外贸易中稀缺资源价格波动因素分析模型，获取稀缺资源对外贸易中的价格波动因素分析结果。实证分析结果表明，实际GDP、真实交易总额等实体经济参数对于稀缺资源对外贸易中价格波动影响较大，美元指数、黄金价格、投机比例等虚拟经济对于价格波动影响相对较弱。 

关键词: 稀缺资源；对外贸易；节点；误差修正模型；自回归模型；波动因素