CONSUMPTION REGULARITY OF MOLYBDENUM AND ITS DEMAND FORECAST OF CHINA IN NEXT DECADE

doi:10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20190110.006

Resources & Industries ›› 2018, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (6): 24-29.DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20190110.006

• RESOURCES EVALUATION • Previous Articles Next Articles

CONSUMPTION REGULARITY OF MOLYBDENUM AND ITS DEMAND FORECAST OF CHINA IN NEXT DECADE

ZHOU Yuanyuan, WANG Jing, TANG Pingzhi

(Geological Survey Center for Non-ferrous Metallic Resources, Beijing 100012, China)

Received:2018-09-01 Revised:2018-10-08 Online:2018-12-20 Published:2019-02-20
Supported by:

钼消费规律分析及未来10年中国需求预测

周园园，王京，唐萍芝

（有色金属矿产地质调查中心，北京 100012）

通讯作者: 周园园(E-mail: 531590436@qq.com)
基金资助:
中国地质调查项目（121201103000150014）

Abstract

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the molybdenum consumption structure and history in the world, uses a combined methods of average molybdenum consumption quantity per capita, "S-shaped" regularity of mineral resource consumption and scenario forecast to tell China's future molybdenum demand tendency. China currently is at the stage of rising demand, estimated up to 140 kt in 2025. By then the ratio of molybdenum to steel will reach about 0.02%, a little bit higher than the global. This paper quantitatively forecasts China's molybdenum demand in middle to long term, of significance in promoting molybdenum's application, developing molybdenum resource, industrial development and planning.

Key words: molybdenum, consumption regularity, "S-shaped", regularity, demand forecast

摘要： 文章在全面分析总结全球钼消费结构及消费历史规律的基础上，运用人均钼消费量、矿产资源消费“S”形规律和分情景预测相结合的方法初步判断未来中国钼需求发展趋势。结果显示：中国钼需求尚处于上升阶段，2025年钼需求可能达到14万t，届时钼钢比将达到0.02%，略高于全球平均水平。文章在中长期尺度上对中国钼需求进行的定量预测，对推广钼在我国的应用，制定中国钼资源开发、产业发展和规划布局有着重要的现实意义。

关键词: 钼；消费规律；&ldquo, S&rdquo, 形规律；需求预测

CLC Number:

F205
F407.1

ZHOU Yuanyuan, WANGjing, TANG Pingzhi.

CONSUMPTION REGULARITY OF MOLYBDENUM AND ITS DEMAND FORECAST OF CHINA IN NEXT DECADE

[J]. Resources & Industries, 2018, 20(6): 24-29.

周园园，王京，唐萍芝. 钼消费规律分析及未来10年中国需求预测 [J]. 资源与产业, 2018, 20(6): 24-29.

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CONSUMPTION REGULARITY OF MOLYBDENUM AND ITS DEMAND FORECAST OF CHINA IN NEXT DECADE

钼消费规律分析及未来10年中国需求预测

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