Abstract: Energy consumption transformation is necessary in the new developing era. Energy structure transformation based on new energy is an important part in China’s modernization. This paper, in order to study the impact of China’s new energy industries on economy, compiles new energy economy input/output tables of 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2020. To further analyze the inner connection within new energy industries, this paper uses structural decomposition to estimate endogenous multiplier effect, drawback effect and spillover effect of new energy industries. New energy industrial scale has been increasing, with its added value rate at a high level but its impact less than the average, not strong enough to boost economy. New energy industrial sectors have no strong inner correlation, but they have post-direct correlation with all industrial sectors, including manufacturing and construction under indirect depletion. Static decomposition shows that endogenous multiplier effect, drawback effect and spillover effect of new energy industries are all below the average, among which spillover effect is the major source of its increasing output, but falling in 2020, roughly equal to endogenous multiplier effect’s contribution. The further dynamic decomposition suggests that the major source of increased outputs is stimulated by other sectors’ final demand to its sectors’ final demand and to other new sectors’ final demand. Generally, new energy industries have a rising correlation with other industries. New energy industries are at an upgrading stage. This paper presents suggestions on boosting research and development to intensify its leading role in economy, planning its industrial cluster and linking with such industries as manufacturing and construction, giving supportive policies to increase its sensing capacity. 

Key words: new energy industry, input/output table, correlation measurement, effect analysis

摘要： 新发展阶段背景下能源消费转型的迫切性日益增强，以新能源为契机的能源结构转型是中国式现代化的重要内容。为了深入了解中国新能源产业现状及其对国民经济影响，设计并编制2015年、2017年、2018年和2020年新能源产业投入产出表。为了进一步分析新能源产业的关联效应，探究产业间的内部关联机制，运用结构分解法测算了新能源产业部门的内生乘数效应、回馈效应和外向溢出效应。研究发现：1）新能源产业规模发展整体呈上升趋势。新能源产业的增加值率处于较高水平，但整体上新能源产业部门对国民经济的影响未达到社会平均影响力，对国民经济发展的后项推动作用尚不明显。2）新能源产业的自身关联性不强，所有产业部门与新能源产业有后向直接关联关系，且在考虑间接消耗下，制造业、建筑业仍然是新能源产业的密切后向完全关联产业。3）通过静态分解效应发现，新能源产业部门的内生乘数效应、回馈效应和外向溢出效应均低于全社会平均水平，就产业部门自身来看，外向溢出效应是其部门产出增长的主要来源，但2020年有所下降并与内生乘数效应贡献持平；进一步动态分解效应发现，在观察期内的新能源产业部门产出增长的主要来源，经历了由其他部门最终需求刺激过渡到自身部门最终需求刺激，再到新一轮其他部门最终需求刺激的动态发展过程。总体上看，新能源产业与其他产业的关联程度动态增强趋势。新能源产业发展状态较为良好，处于上升蓬勃发展阶段。基于研究结果，提出以下建议：1）加大技术研发投入和推广普及新能源应用，增强新能源产业在国民经济部门中的以影响力为表征的前向牵引作用；2）合理规划和布局新能源产业集群发展，并连通其与制造业、建筑业等密切关联产业部门的生产交流通道，实现产业协同发展；3）加强新能源产业建设和政策引导扶持，以增强新能源产业感应能力优势，为实现中国式现代化助力。

关键词: 新能源产业, 投入产出表, 关联测度, 效应分析