Abstract: China's rapidly-growing new urbanization has adversely affected China's regional sustainable development, which has also been challenged by rising global warming and extreme climate events. Study on the coupling coordination between new urbanization and sustainable development has become an imperative task in advancing China's high-quality economic growth. This paper, based on 2003 to 2019 population, economic, social and eco-environmental data of China's provinces, uses comprehensive index of new urbanization and environmental enhanced sustainable development index（ESDI）to establish a coupling coordination model and Gray Forecast Model GM(1, 1), which are applied to study the temporal-spatial evolution of coupling coordination between new urbanization and sustainable development and its developing trend. China's sustainable development largely varies with provinces, quantity of provinces with low ESDI first increased and then fell during 2003 to 2019, while those with high ESDI continuously rose. China's provinces are basically disordered or basically coordinated in their coupling coordination degree, generally showing a changing trend from basically disordered to basically coordinated, leaving most provinces’ new urbanization in lagging or blocked. This paper predicts that from 2020 to 2024, the coupling coordination degree between new urbanization and sustainable development are in basically coordinated in China's 20 provinces, 9 in basically disordered, and only Inner Mongolia in extremely disordered.

Key words: new urbanization, sustainable development, climate disaster, coupling coordination, spatiotemporal evolution characteristics

摘要： 当今，中国新型城镇化的快速发展对我国的区域可持续发展产生了一些不利影响，而全球气候变暖和极端气候事件的不断增加也给我国的区域可持续发展带来了新的挑战。在此时代背景之下，开展对新型城镇化与可持续发展的耦合协调研究，就成为了推动我国社会经济高质量发展所亟待解决的迫切问题之一。鉴于以上原因，本文基于2003—2019年我国各省份人口、经济、社会、生态环境等数据，从计算新型城镇化综合指数与环境增强型可持续发展指数（ESDI）入手，通过构建耦合协调模型与GM(1,1)灰色预测模型，来研究我国省域尺度下新型城镇化与可持续发展耦合协调度的时空演变特征，以及新型城镇化与可持续发展耦合协调作用的发展趋势。研究结果表明：1）在可持续发展水平方面，我国各个省份存在着明显的时空差异性。2003—2019年具有低水平ESDI的省份数量先增加后减少，而具有高水平ESDI的省份数量则呈上升趋势。2）在新型城镇化与可持续发展耦合协调关系方面，我国各个省份的耦合协调度以“基本失调”与“基本协调”状态为主，并总体呈现出从“基本失调”向着“基本协调”转变的趋势，但是多数省份的新型城镇化发展还处于滞后或者受阻状态。3）经过对新型城镇化与可持续发展耦合协调度发展趋势的预测表明，2020—2024年我国有20个省份的新型城镇化与可持续发展的耦合协调度处于“基本协调”状态，有9个省份处于“基本失调”状态，内蒙古自治区则处于“严重失调”状态。

关键词: 新型城镇化, 可持续发展, 气象灾害, 耦合协调, 时空演变特征